Autumn 2015

[Snipper]

Yes quite small here.

S

Goodness knows where my photo went.

[Snipper]

[Mokidugway]

image.jpg

is that the only one !!.

[Snipper]

Pounds of them.

[Costa Del Fal]

Not been a bad week actually. I seem to have dodged most of the rain and showers and ended up with quite a sunny week overall. Whilst it hasn't been all that warm, at least the afternoons have felt fairly pleasant in the sunshine.

Apart from Momday, my holiday in Devon turned out really Good too!!! Today had very warm sunshine especially. Monday was very stormy but otherwise very pleasant. Much better than expected. someone must be looking down on us and blessed us with good weather. even managed some surfing.

[hillbilly]

Yet another September day better than most of summer could produce !

[MP-R]

Very respectable day for September here. Thick fog which lifted into mist during the morning then cleared to sunshine by midday. Convective cloud built up in the afternoon but we still managed 6.5 hours of sun.

 

I've quite liked September so far, it's never been settled or unsettled long enough to become boring - the settled spells have been mostly sunny and the unsettled spells have been quite convective. Also helps that the good weather has fallen on weekends. An unsettled week then high pressure for next weekend would be a good shout.

[Weather-history]

Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness

[cheese]

That time of year again.. I wasn't awake this early but it appears the day started off clear, with some fog along the Aire Valley.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

End of Sept, early October looking very summer like, maxes of around 25C for most. Could this be another 2011? 

[MP-R]

End of Sept, early October looking very summer like, maxes of around 25C for most. Could this be another 2011? 

 

We would need quite a long drawn southerly/southeasterly for such temperature to repeat, coupled with high 850s in the region of +15C. More likely 18-23C for most taking into consideration mist & fog clearance in the morning, any breezes that pick up, weak sunshine and shorter daylight hours. Nevertheless, what the models show looks very pleasant - 07th-10th October 2010, 26th-30th October 2009 and 08th-12th October 2008 are recent examples of where temperatures surpassed 20C - the 2009 instance being quite unusual for so late in the season.

[Gavin Hannah]

We would need quite a long drawn southerly/southeasterly for such temperature to repeat, coupled with high 850s in the region of +15C. More likely 18-23C for most taking into consideration mist & fog clearance in the morning, any breezes that pick up, weak sunshine and shorter daylight hours. Nevertheless, what the models show looks very pleasant - 07th-10th October 2010, 26th-30th October 2009 and 08th-12th October 2008 are recent examples of where temperatures surpassed 20C - the 2009 instance being quite unusual for so late in the season.

 

Well, we know what happened later in the winter     So if we get a +20C late October == Epic winter with snow and ice... That is my logic and I'm sticking to it 

On a side note, Saturday was really nice, I actually got a little sunburnt as I was out all day walking. It's a tad colder today though.

[Gavin Hannah]

However, last year we saw nearly 24C on Halloween and winter turned out to be very bog-standard.

 

Can I choose to pretend that never happened lol?  I do remember wearing a t-shirt to a fireworks display which was rather an odd thing...

[cheeky_monkey]

However, last year we saw nearly 24C on Halloween and winter turned out to be very bog-standard.

2001 ended on a warm note and was the warmest October on record..following winter was dross also.

[Gray-Wolf]

With tens of thousands displaced across Europe I won't be hoping for a repeat of the Siberian type winter !!! That would be just awful! Sorry guys but mild for the winter please!!!!

[Gavin Hannah]

With tens of thousands displaced across Europe I won't be hoping for a repeat of the Siberian type winter !!! That would be just awful! Sorry guys but mild for the winter please!!!!

 

True there are loads of migrants / refugees coming to Europe, but I would like to think that they would have better chance in Europe. As a developed region, we could easily accommodate people and provide basic shelter which is harder to do when they are in refugee camps in some no mans land in the middle east / africa. Even winter in Syria can get get quite cold. Mainland Europe gets colder winters too, but it would be shocking if European Governments couldn't get there act together and left a few thousand people out in the cold.

[MP-R]

2001 ended on a warm note and was the warmest October on record..following winter was dross also.

 

*second half of the following winter was dross.

[Guest]

True there are loads of migrants / refugees coming to Europe, but I would like to think that they would have better chance in Europe. As a developed region, we could easily accommodate people and provide basic shelter which is harder to do when they are in refugee camps in some no mans land in the middle east / africa. Even winter in Syria can get get quite cold. Mainland Europe gets colder winters too, but it would be shocking if European Governments couldn't get there act together and left a few thousand people out in the cold.

 

It's very hard to accommodate millions of people heading to the same country, anyway, let's not get political 

[damianslaw]

We've seen plenty of warm anticyclonic weather in recent Octobers, 2001, 2005 and 2009 being prime examples. Last October saw an unusually very mild end, Halloween was quite odd even more remarkable than 1 Oct 2011. We have also seen some cold periods, most notably end Oct 2008 which brought low level snow to many parts, arctic northerlies in Oct 2010 and 2012 also brought cold weather and some snow down to low levels in the north.

 

October can see wild extremes, just like April though not on the same scale, I do tend to take notice when we have lengthy settled anticylonic weather in Oct as its a time when the jet is firing into gear and the atlantic should be gaining the upper hand. Shouldn't pattern match but there has been some correlation in some years of such conditions being followed by cold similiarly high pressure set ups in early winter:

 

Oct 95 - very mild, cold Dec

Oct 01 - very mild, coldish anticylonic Dec

Oct 05  coldish anticylonic Dec, after a cold late Nov.

Oct 09 and Oct 10 - enough said...

Oct 12 - cold start to winter.

[Gavin Hannah]

I remember Oct 12 brought a lot of hill snow to the highlands, and after the two previous winters,the papers went ballistic saying the end of the world was nigh!  And I wasn't the only one that was suckered into getting my hopes up lol.

[damianslaw]

I remember Oct 12 brought a lot of hill snow to the highlands, and after the two previous winters,the papers went ballistic saying the end of the world was nigh!  And I wasn't the only one that was suckered into getting my hopes up lol.

 

 

Winter 12/13 was preety decent for snow and cold weather, take out the mid Dec-mid Jan period and it was consistently cold. I like autumn 2012 plenty of variety, autumn 2010 was also very seasonal, likewise 2008.

 

Last autumn was consistently mild and damp, a preety miserable affair, autumn 2013 was more seasonal temp wise apart from October, but was mostly wet with little settled dry weather.

 

I've no idea how this autumn will ultimately pan out.. the turning/pivotal point comes around the 3rd week of October, a quiet atlantic at that time of year can suggest a potentially different late autumn period.. but dry settled weather before then can very quickly be exchanged for stormy wet weather thereafter.. 2009 was quite an extreme unusual case, the settled weather lasted through the end of October then we had the wettest Nov on record.. it didn't feel normal service, and alas we ended up with the coldest winter since 78/79.

Edited September 21, 2015 by damianslaw

[cheese]

2012/2013 was great here - loads of snow. Not very cold except for March though. Too cloudy for very low minima, but we had about 5 ice days - 3 in Jan and 2 in March. We also had 25cm of level snow in late January, similar in March, a 15cm fall in February - all in all it amounted to the snowiest winter I've experienced. We must have had near 100cmm in total that season - but it melted between falls so obviously never approached such depths.

Edited September 21, 2015 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

*second half of the following winter was dross.

was all dross apart from the 2 weeks around Xmas .. January and Feb were wet and mild.

[MP-R]

was all dross apart from the 2 weeks around Xmas .. January and Feb were wet and mild.

 

Nope, December was pretty much chilly or cold throughout with a snowy Christmas-New Year; January was very cold to start and remained chilly until midmonth. That constitutes half the winter...

 

I agree that from then on it was dire.

[cheeky_monkey]

Nope, December was pretty much chilly or cold throughout with a snowy Christmas-New Year; January was very cold to start and remained chilly until midmonth. That constitutes half the winter...

 

I agree that from then on it was dire.

I still have my old site diaries from December 2001 and January 2002...looking through them it was a chilly December but nothing special and relatively dry up until the Xmas  period..then it was alternating cold and mild in fact Xmas eve rainy and 10c..which ran into xmas morning..between then and new year was relatively cold but no snow at all..then it just goes down hill as we enter January and the rest is history as they say.