Autumn 2015

[Yarmy]

Yuck.

 

I don't mind it turning unsettled - it had to happen eventually - but this sunless mild gunk from the SW is just depressing, especially after what came before.

Indeed. Today was awful compared with what we've had. I was away with friends this weekend and they were commenting on how good the weather had been. They were amazed when I said it had been the coolest September for 20 years. It baffles me that anyone could prefer this kludge just because it's a couple of degrees warmer.

[Nick L]

Am not quite sure why people are complaining about temperature at this time of year.I am blessed [or not so blessed] by lower temps than most but I can assure the last week or two of mainly sunny days [afternoons anyway] with temps of 14 to 17 deg and CALM conditions have been as good as good as it gets here for 2015,sure as hell beats 14 deg and cloudy and a stiff breeze in the height of summer.4th of October ,yesterday spent most of the day in a T shirt feeling pleasantly warm,even all those who hate summer heat must have loved that !!

 

I can't see anyone complaining about the temperature?

[feb1991blizzard]

I would enjoy this October as much as you can - because here is the composite for a typical El Nino November! It matches an Atlantic cold pool anomaly composite as well -

 

+PDO EN Nov H500.png

 

October composite suggests a ridge never too far away, especially with an Atlantic cold pool present.

 

2009 one of the analogue years - Yes please (rolled forward)

[March Blizzard]

Indeed. Today was awful compared with what we've had. I was away with friends this weekend and they were commenting on how good the weather had been. They were amazed when I said it had been the coolest September for 20 years. It baffles me that anyone could prefer this kludge just because it's a couple of degrees warmer.

Agreed. It's most frustrating in winter when a beautiful clear, cold spell/snap breaks down to mild, wet and cloudy muck. "At least it will be mild!" is gleefully stated by weather reporters, as if the bit of extra warmth (which I don't want anyway - it's winter) makes up for the dismal conditions.

[damianslaw]

2009 one of the analogue years - Yes please (rolled forward)

 

 

Yes the synoptic would deliver a very wet November after a rather quiet October, 2009 was very similar in this respect lots of high pressure influence in October but then an exceptionally wet November with low pressure anchored out to the west (in a similar position to the projected path of ex hurricane Joaquin) throwing up endless bouts of rain and generally just coming unstuck with a consequential very mild tropical maritime airmass, whilst all the while heights were building to our NE.

[Costa Del Fal]

Seems these SWly's are just as bad as the northerlies which bring plenty of cloud too in spring and summer because their cool uppers over warm land just generate stupid amounts of stratocumulus.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes the synoptic would deliver a very wet November after a rather quiet October, 2009 was very similar in this respect lots of high pressure influence in October but then an exceptionally wet November with low pressure anchored out to the west (in a similar position to the projected path of ex hurricane Joaquin) throwing up endless bouts of rain and generally just coming unstuck with a consequential very mild tropical maritime airmass, whilst all the while heights were building to our NE.

 

I really am sceptical of blocked mid-late Autumns, yes you would like to see some high lat blocking / wave activity disrupting the vortex (OPI and SAI relevant) but the best place is over E Russia / Siberia which can still mean a wet November for us via a quasi-stationary trough over us or near us, a lot of Novembers with blocked cold scenarios have ended up with very zonal Januarys.

[cheese]

Seems these SWly's are just as bad as the northerlies which bring plenty of cloud too in spring and summer because their cool uppers over warm land just generate stupid amounts of stratocumulus.

It depends. Northerlies in March and April can bring crystal clear visibility and sparkling sunshine - intercepted by heavy showers of rain, hail and snow.

[feb1991blizzard]

I've said this before, and I stick by it. I don't believe that the weather/setup in autumn has any effect on winter whatsoever. There have been plenty of warm/zonal autumns being followed by cold/blocked winters and vice versa.

 

For example, look at autumn 1993 which was very cold, but was followed by a relatively mild winter and autumn 2009 which was quite warm and was followed by the coldest winter since 1978-79.

 

We still had some decent snow events that winter but I am half agreeing with you, I think that a lot of cold Dec / Jans or Dec /Jans with very cold snowy spells have been preceeded by some  very wet (even flooding events) in Nov, but actually think there is a small correlation but it doesn't work the way people think, we actually want a wet November (but with disruption to the PV via wave activity from other areas of the hemisphere.

[damianslaw]

I've said this before, and I stick by it. I don't believe that the weather/setup in autumn has any effect on winter whatsoever. There have been plenty of warm/zonal autumns being followed by cold/blocked winters and vice versa.

 

For example, look at autumn 1993 which was very cold, but was followed by a relatively mild winter and autumn 2009 which was quite warm and was followed by the coldest winter since 1978-79.

 

Agree broadly speaking, but the power and position of the Jetstream particularly by late November, is an important factor.. if we see a meridional flow, or a sluggish jet it can suggest increased chance of blocking scenarios at least in the early part of the winter. A Jetstream that powers through with all energy in the northern half during late Nov is usually indicative of a well established polar vortex in vicinity of Greenland , and such a feature is very difficult to shift early on in the winter.

 

At this stage in the autumn though its all conjecture.

 

So far Autumn 2015 in the main has been quite interesting synoptic wise, far from the standard atlantic steam train ride, with ridge development holding out against trough development and this theme is likely to continue for the foreseeable.

[MP-R]

It's been noticeable how lows have already been taking a southerly track, even in September - one of the wet spells from the 14th-17th was from such a scenario.

 

I can't remember who said it a few years ago but apparently a cold spell in late November / early December during an otherwise Atlantic period can be a precursor to more sustained colder weather post-Christmas. Wouldn't want lengthy cold spell in November; as said above it has all too often preceded rubbish winter second halves.

[StretfordEnd1996]

I've said this before, and I stick by it. I don't believe that the weather/setup in autumn has any effect on winter whatsoever. There have been plenty of warm/zonal autumns being followed by cold/blocked winters and vice versa.

 

For example, look at autumn 1993 which was very cold, but was followed by a relatively mild winter and autumn 2009 which was quite warm and was followed by the coldest winter since 1978-79.

It's probably more of a mutual belief and hope rather than a confirmed factor. The thing is, this time of year in terms of weather forecasting is so much more popular than any other time, and it only takes one person to come up with a possible factor and it spreads through word of mouth before eventually becoming seemingly factual. 

 

Some people even like to single out a particular month in Autumn; September is a popular one in terms of it's own outcome influencing the following Winter. How does September matter, but October and November not matter? Same applies for the opposite end of the year, does Spring and particularly March have a big influence on Summer? Everyone knows it doesn't, it's just that most people at this time of year believe anything with a pinch of salt and clutch onto those straws as we do every year. 

[summer blizzard]

First time in a good while that I've felt warm rain. Probably not warm, but feels it because of how cold nights have been.

[Chris.R]

Wow the 2nd consecutive October day above 20C. Maximum was 20.0°C so only Just, but that equals The number of such days in the whole of September.

[chionomaniac]

I've said this before, and I stick by it. I don't believe that the weather/setup in autumn has any effect on winter whatsoever. There have been plenty of warm/zonal autumns being followed by cold/blocked winters and vice versa.

 

For example, look at autumn 1993 which was very cold, but was followed by a relatively mild winter and autumn 2009 which was quite warm and was followed by the coldest winter since 1978-79.

This may be true in as much as if the polar vortex appears to be strengthening in November, it doesn't set the pattern for winter. However the building blocks that lead to the autumn conditions will still be in place for winter, so one can be guided by the late autumnal pattern if this verifies prior to winter - even if the expected winter pattern may be something completely different to the preceding autumn.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still dreading that an 'easterly' 0ctober may mean more chance of an Atlantic dominated zonal winter, the 'cold' blocked setup come too early, a (waste) for cold fans, I definitely hoping models are wrong, do not want easterlies now

 

I say get the zonal/Atlantic air 0ct/Nov, then it may be out of the way to dominate winter months, meaning cold shots

[simshady]

'I say get the zonal/Atlantic air 0ct/Nov, then it may be out of the way to dominate winter months'

 

 

.......Or it could carry on all the way through to spring which would be horrible.

Edited October 7, 2015 by simshady

[Nick L]

This may be true in as much as if the polar vortex appears to be strengthening in November, it doesn't set the pattern for winter. However the building blocks that lead to the autumn conditions will still be in place for winter, so one can be guided by the late autumnal pattern if this verifies prior to winter - even if the expected winter pattern may be something completely different to the preceding autumn.

 

True. But the idea of "using up all the mild zonal stuff before winter starts" is a nonsense.

[cheese]

22mm yesterday and 20mm today.

[Richard2901]

This is turning into yet another horrific October, typical of the dross that's prevailed since 2001. Barely stopped raining during daylight hours for the past three days with almost half the monthly total already. Nearby burn has flooded over for about the fourth time in as many months.

 

Temperatures have been depressing and monotonous - stuck flatlining on 13C for over 24 hours, something that would never have happened in the past even under the worst conditions. Horrid, grey drizzly easterly outlook as well.

 

There has not been one decent October this decade. The only decent spell of October weather has been the first third of October 2012, which is the only westerly dominated October weather since 2008. The rest of that month was just grey easterly rubbish and the other Octobers, particularly 2011, 2013 and 2014, were dominated by vile gloomy easterly/south easterly rot bringing everything I hate the most. Static temperatures, disgustingly mild nights, lack of daytime warmth, appalling air quality, lack of sunshine and excessive rain.

 

Our weather is just becoming so tedious, predictable and unvaried. The same every year: snowless winter, sunny spring, dull wet summer, gloomy dull, mild autumn. More of everything I loath and much less of the things I like.

[Costa Del Fal]

 

This is turning into yet another horrific October, typical of the dross that's prevailed since 2001. Barely stopped raining during daylight hours for the past three days with almost half the monthly total already. Nearby burn has flooded over for about the fourth time in as many months.

 

Temperatures have been depressing and monotonous - stuck flatlining on 13C for over 24 hours, something that would never have happened in the past even under the worst conditions. Horrid, grey drizzly easterly outlook as well.

 

There has not been one decent October this decade. The only decent spell of October weather has been the first third of October 2012, which is the only westerly dominated October weather since 2008. The rest of that month was just grey easterly rubbish and the other Octobers, particularly 2011, 2013 and 2014, were dominated by vile gloomy easterly/south easterly rot bringing everything I hate the most. Static temperatures, disgustingly mild nights, lack of daytime warmth, appalling air quality, lack of sunshine and excessive rain.

 

Our weather is just becoming so tedious, predictable and unvaried. The same every year: snowless winter, sunny spring, dull wet summer, gloomy dull, mild autumn. More of everything I loath and much less of the things I like.

 

The sunny spring is a good thing!!! That's one positive I could find in your post at least...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Good Spring in Aberdeen then, good thing

[Mokidugway]

Oh dear ,that why they have high fences on Scottish bridges then ..

[Liam J]

 

This is turning into yet another horrific October, typical of the dross that's prevailed since 2001. Barely stopped raining during daylight hours for the past three days with almost half the monthly total already. Nearby burn has flooded over for about the fourth time in as many months.

 

Temperatures have been depressing and monotonous - stuck flatlining on 13C for over 24 hours, something that would never have happened in the past even under the worst conditions. Horrid, grey drizzly easterly outlook as well.

 

There has not been one decent October this decade. The only decent spell of October weather has been the first third of October 2012, which is the only westerly dominated October weather since 2008. The rest of that month was just grey easterly rubbish and the other Octobers, particularly 2011, 2013 and 2014, were dominated by vile gloomy easterly/south easterly rot bringing everything I hate the most. Static temperatures, disgustingly mild nights, lack of daytime warmth, appalling air quality, lack of sunshine and excessive rain.

 

Our weather is just becoming so tedious, predictable and unvaried. The same every year: snowless winter, sunny spring, dull wet summer, gloomy dull, mild autumn. More of everything I loath and much less of the things I like.

 

We're only 7 days into the month?? Location is everything. Was a great start to October here with temps close to 20c with sunshine. Had bit of rain over the last few days but that's it, and now the dry weather is returning although it won't be as warm as last week... From an IMBY perspective the first week of October 2015 has been very decent and could have been a dam sight worst! 

[Costa Del Fal]

The best thing of all is that having just ploughed through the climate anomaly maps for this year so far on the met office, almost ALL months have featured average to above average sunshine in the Aberdeen area! Only July looks to have pushed anything notably below average and even then its nothing bad.  (Data compared to the 1981-2010 anomaly)

 

Now lets look at temperatures for this year so far for Aberdeen...

 

All average to above average until May. Pretty close to average over the summer, maybe just very slightly below. September average.

 

So I am not quite sure what there is to complain about tbh!

 

I'm actually beginning to think your a troll. If not, then it is clear you are someone who will never be happy unless every record under the sun was broken each month. 

 

Its time to move or find a new hobby. There is much more in life to enjoy.

Edited October 7, 2015 by Costa Del Fal