Autumn 2015

[feb1991blizzard]

The vortex for a 3rd year running is showing an unnering tendancy for a love in with Greenland towards the end of the run.

[Ravelin]

The vortex for a 3rd year running is showing an unnering tendancy for a love in with Greenland towards the end of the run.

 

What PV? Taking various the runs out at 240hrs, I don't see too much of an organised PV there. Am I missing something?

 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

Nor do I.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Its starting to go purple, remember we are only on the 13th Oct, based on earlier runs I would put my life on the fact that the OPI would be recording +ve values by the 25th Oct, that said, there has been some decent vertical advection at 384 mark on a couple of runs, and some decent attempts at blocking on a few of the GEFS members on this latest run.

 

 

EDIT :  Actually the 12  GEFS is an excellent suite.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=230.83999633789062&y=38.05999755859375

Edited October 13, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Wilxy]

Its starting to go purple, remember we are only on the 13th Oct, based on earlier runs I would put my life on the fact that the OPI would be recording +ve values by the 25th Oct, that said, there has been some decent vertical advection at 384 mark on a couple of runs, and some decent attempts at blocking on a few of the GEFS members on this latest run.

 

 

EDIT :  Actually the 12  GEFS is an excellent suite.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=230.83999633789062&y=38.05999755859375

 

I'm looking forward to the return of unsettled weather as this anti cyclonic weather can get a bit boring after a while.

[Lynxus]

Right well, winter is gonna be interesting this year...

/clutching at straws

 

http://www.gloucestercitizen.co.uk/Slimbridge-swans-fleeing-Siberia-herald-Britain-s/story-27967642-detail/story.html 

[feb1991blizzard]

Right well, winter is gonna be interesting this year...

/clutching at straws

 

http://www.gloucestercitizen.co.uk/Slimbridge-swans-fleeing-Siberia-herald-Britain-s/story-27967642-detail/story.html 

 

I don't mind a lot of rain in November just as long as its more with a quasi stationary trough to the West rather than too much mobility, I want to keep as much blocking as possible in the Northern lattitudes during the rest of October.

[Larry Bicett]

I'm looking forward to the return of unsettled weather as this anti cyclonic weather can get a bit boring after a while.

 

Me too, this has got to be the longest,most tedious and monotonous run of autumn weather that I can remember. By rights the turnaround should be swift, brutal,uncompromising and protracted.

[Harve]

http://www.lesoir.be/1016248/article/actualite/belgique/2015-10-14/voici-photos-des-premiers-flocons-neige

 

Snow fell in the Ardennes this morning. 

[Evening thunder]

This settled spell is looking great over the coming days..

 

1-5 day forecast:

 

6-10 day forecast:

 

Hopefully it won't be completely cloudy.. but we would probably get more sun and of course actual weather out of a southwesterly.

Edited October 15, 2015 by Evening thunder

[March Blizzard]

We are now entering what I think of as the leading "Winter periphery" - the mid to late October period in which frosts become more likely, frequent and widespread and daytime maxima can be really suppressed in the right setup. Also, we can start to see the first bit of wintry precipitation in rare circumstances.

Not winter, but not a million miles away.

After that you've got the "extended winter season", the five months Nov thru March, in which wintry conditions can feature and persist.

Narrowing further, the "winter season" of mid Nov to mid March. This is the time of year in which properly severe winter weather can occur, with ice days, blizzards and sub -20C minima possible.

The winter itself, Dec-Feb, is self-explanatory, with any kind of winter weather possible at any time during this period.

Finally, the winter "core" of Jan to mid-Feb. The time of year when the most severe conditions are possible/likely.

To finish, the trailing "winter periphery" of early-mid April. Frosts can still be widespread and potent, and the threat of wintry precipitation hasn't yet passed, but winter fast begins to lose it's influence.

Well...that's how I see it, anyway!

Edited October 16, 2015 by March Blizzard

[Mokidugway]

I would say another 2 to 3 weeks to go here on the west coast I think ...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

another 4-5 weeks before proper snow becomes possible at low levels in the south, northern areas/high levels late 0ct, if I lived 300m especially north, I would be looking to deep FI now for possible snow

[Snowyowl9]

This October is going to be another record breaking month.

Lack of rain.

[March Blizzard]

This October is going to be another record breaking month.Lack of rain.

Yeah, the lack of rain at this time of year seems very strange. More akin in feel to the dryness more typical of Feb/March.

[cheese]

We have 42mm for the month, but all of that fell within 48 hours.

[Liam J]

Yes the lack of rain is notable, ground is so dry the soil is like dust. 

[cheese]

October is the second wettest month on average here, narrowly beating December and just behind August - though August is the joint second sunniest in % terms (gets 41% of possible, same as July but lower than May with 44%)

 

Funnily enough, June only gets 37% of the possible - which is only a little higher than April and October. Return of the Westerlies?

 

Slightly off topic.. but I found it interesting. The one thing that changes more than anything from June-September, to October-December, is increase in rain days - we get about 8 days of rain each month from June-September, but 10-11 from October-December, so even though the actual rainfall amount doesn't change much at all, it feels much damper.

Edited October 16, 2015 by cheese

[virtualsphere]

Thoroughly enjoying this dry spell here.  There have been some very rainy spells over the last few years (notably autumn - winter 13/14), and although the rainfall amounts haven't been exceptional recently the last year has felt consistently damp here, bar April and June.  Some beautiful colours on the leaves now too.  

[Summer Sun]

The Foehn effect could see parts of NE Scotland hit 20c tomorrow before strong winds arrive on Thursday

[cheese]

Mostly sunny and 14C today after a mostly sunny day yesterday, reaching 16C - if most days in October were like this I'd be a happy camper - and this, to me, is  what autumn is all about - some beautiful but cool-ish sunshine showing off the yellows, oranges and reds. The autumn gales can stay at bay.

Edited October 20, 2015 by cheese

[Mokidugway]

Mostly sunny and 14C today after a mostly sunny day yesterday, reaching 16C - if most days in October were like this I'd be a happy camper - and this, to me, is  what autumn is all about - some beautiful but cool-ish sunshine showing off the yellows, oranges and reds. The autumn gales can stay at bay.

true ,relentless wet westerly weather is no use to man nor beast ..

[Costa Del Fal]

A beautiful pleasant day here. lots Of sunshine.

Edited October 20, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

true ,relentless wet westerly weather is no use to man nor beast ..

 

no use at all, but it is our default weather, Thunderbolt_ will be lovin' outlook

[Milhouse]

A beautiful pleasant day here. lots Of sunshine.

 

Well i must say ive quite enjoyed this Autumn so far. Loads of dry days to get out and about and delay that inevitable onset of wet and windy conditions that turn everywhere boggy and waterlogged in the winter. But the time is approaching when the amount of daylight is becoming an issue so getting out and about becomes more problematic. Therefore come November ill be welcoming those big Atlantic storms.