Autumn 2015

[I remember Atlantic 252]

change the record Thunderbolt_ for god's sake, We get the message, you don't like cold, you love mild, hope you or your relatives etc, do not get flooded then, you get your wish

[Relativistic]

I know this sounds pretty weird, but I think there is something really nice about an 11C, breezy, dull November/December day. It feels really quite nice and seasonal, even though I often moan about the shortening of the days. Of course there aren't many of us who like that sort of weather.

I'm a cold fan but I love it when you have thick grey cloud racing past over your head, 12C Atlantic air at 6am, the wind howling through the trees, and that menacing darkness at any time of day that comes with all of that. That's proper weather.

Having said that you need lots of cold weather too, especially once you hit Winter.

Edited August 29, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[hillbilly]

Unfortunately we are more likely to get a mild windy and dull October,November and December than a cold one but after this summers disappointment I hope I am wrong,we can always get my wish of a winter starting early in October!

[Methuselah]

I want September and October to feature quite a lot of high pressure and sunshine to take advantage of the available warmth before it fizzles out. There would also be a few long-drawn southerlies to give some autumn thunderstorms and brief bursts of summer heat. Then in November the Atlantic can fire up, giving some very mild and stormy days.

 

That would be the perfect autumn - nice and warm.

I agree that the best autumn weather is warm...IMO, the snow can wait until Christmas, when it's cold enough for it to settle.

[Evening thunder]

change the record Thunderbolt_ for god's sake, We get the message, you don't like cold, you love mild, hope you or your relatives etc, do not get flooded then, you get your wish

 

I don't really see the problem tbh, we should all tolerate each others preferences even if we don't share them.

 

Obviously I hope you or your relatives aren't disrupted, or in an accident caused by cold icy weather and can afford to pay heating bills. I don't agree with saying that kind of thing, but it is the same as what you said, and it is hypocritical of anyone who likes cold and snow (which includes me) to try and get at people who like stormy weather by citing the disruption or even possible death caused (I don't believe that Thunderbolt likes Atlantic stormy weather, just mild, but I do find it interesting myself).

 

Anyway my preference would be a mixed Autumn with decent sunshine amounts, some warmth and even thunder in September and October, and I would like some stormy weather particularly in November to keep some interest in what can be a dull dark month, before decent spells of cold/snow in Winter.

[damianslaw]

Those cold SST values over NE atlantic should put a dent in temperatures under any west-north airstream this autumn I would imagine, especially the first part. Don't believe we have entered an autumn with such cold values since 1994, indeed the early 90's saw cold anomalies in the NE atlantic and produced some preety chilly autumns, notably 1992 and 1993, the Octobers of those years were significantly below average. Not saying this will happen, but perhaps we could be looking a notably cool autumn compared to recent years when we have been bathed in some anomalous warmth, notably in 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2014. We've had the odd coldish month such as Oct 08, 10 and 12, and most notably Nov 10 but they have been rare.

 

I do find autumn the most evocative of our seasons, it certainly distils an air of melancholy and wistfulness, it can be a slow season though weatherwise, very benign to start and often take time to come alive, but when it does it can be very lively. My favourite time of year weatherwise strangely is late October/early November a period of rapid change when we often see the atlantic come alive, but also when most can expect their first air frost and that first notable chill. The landscape changes markedly as well, everything a golden colour. I generally find the next 3 weeks the most trying period of the year... very rarely anything exciting to note, and nature only slowly takes on an autumnal hue... you just want to shake everything, and move on.... wake me up when September ends...

Edited August 30, 2015 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

Those cold SST values over NE atlantic should put a dent in temperatures under any west-north airstream this autumn I would imagine, especially the first part. Don't believe we have entered an autumn with such cold values since 1994, indeed the early 90's saw cold anomalies in the NE atlantic and produced some preety chilly autumns, notably 1992 and 1993, the Octobers of those years were significantly below average. Not saying this will happen, but perhaps we could be looking a notably cool autumn compared to recent years when we have been bathed in some anomalous warmth, notably in 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2014. We've had the odd coldish month such as Oct 08, 10 and 12, and most notably Nov 10 but they have been rare.

 

I do find autumn the most evocative of our seasons, it certainly distils an air of melancholy and wistfulness, it can be a slow season though weatherwise, very benign to start and often take time to come alive, but when it does it can be very lively. My favourite time of year weatherwise strangely is late October/early November a period of rapid change when we often see the atlantic come alive, but also when most can expect their first air frost and that first notable chill. The landscape changes markedly as well, everything a golden colour. I generally find the next 3 weeks the most trying period of the year... very rarely anything exciting to note, and nature only slowly takes on an autumnal hue... you just want to shake everything, and move on.... wake me up when September ends...

 

I find September most trying when it's anticylonic with temperatures in the 18-21C range a la 2014 and 2009, and the first half of 2007 to a certain degree. 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 I quite enjoyed as the weather was never the same for more than a few days at a time. In fact the contrasts in September 2011 and 2013 were quite notable, the former comprising such a stormy middle then hot end, the latter with such a warm first week then switch to autumn winds by midmonth. September does have all the hallmarks of being an interesting month with potential for true summer and true autumn in the same month, a bit like March re winter and spring, just so long as annoying highs don't turn up for too long.

 

Hard to say what September will turn out like. A lot will depend on hurricane activity and jet stream behaviour. Often the first week of September is quite settled, but the turning point of the month tends to be around the 10th. The fine settled weather of 2004 broke on the 10th, the heat of early 2005 broke around the 10th, same going for 2006, the warm settled start to 2012 ended on the 10th, 2013's warm settled start ended as early as the 06th. Looks like this year it might be similar to 2001, with frequent winds from a northerly quarter?

Edited August 30, 2015 by MP-R

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I'm a cold fan but I love it when you have thick grey cloud racing past over your head, 12C Atlantic air at 6am, the wind howling through the trees, and that menacing darkness at any time of day that comes with all of that. That's proper weather.

Having said that you need lots of cold weather too, especially once you hit Winter.

 

Yup, that was 6am today on the M6.

[Summer Sun]

TWO's Autumn forecast is now online

 

"Autumn 2015: Wet after a dry start

 

Overview

A fairly average autumn is forecast with temperatures overall close to average but perhaps with a marginal bias towards slightly below average. A trend towards above average rainfall amounts is expected to develop in October and November.

 

Temperature

 

Temperatures are expected to be close to the long term average over the three month period. Slightly below average is considered marginally more probable than slightly above average.

 

Precipitation

 

Quite a dry start is expected but over the three month period rainfall levels are expected to be above slightly above the long term average.

 

September

 

Temperature:

Close to or slightly below average

 

Precipitation:

Below average

 

First half

 

During the first week of the month a cool and showery spell develops. The showers are likely to be most frequent in the north and east with drier conditions developing in the south and west. Quite cool nights bring a risk of ground frost in the west and north. The second week probably sees more changeable weather returning to the northern half of the UK with an increasing chance of showers or longer spells of rain. The south may remain mostly dry for much of the period but the risk of rain perhaps increases later.

 

Second half

 

Unsettled and wetter weather is expected to slowly spread southeastwards through the second half of the month. Drier spells continue too, especially in the south and east where rainfall may be below average during this period. Temperatures close to average in the north but possibly slightly above average in the south.

 

October

 

Temperature:

Close to or slightly above average

 

Precipitation:

Above average

 

First half

 

Unsettled weather is expected bringing showers and longer spells of rain to all of the UK. Windy on occasion, particularly in the north. The best of the drier spells are likely to be in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close or slightly above average, but in the north slightly below average is more likely.

 

Second half

 

Often unsettled and very windy. Bands of heavy rain are expected to push across the country, although brighter and showery spells are expected too. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.

 

November

 

Temperature:

Close to or slightly below average

 

Precipitation

Slightly above average

 

First half

 

Mostly unsettled weather bringing widespread rainfall and windy conditions to all regions is the favoured outcome. The wettest conditions are likely in the north and west. Temperatures often stay close to the seasonal average, although colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north where there is an increasing chance of sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland. The general theme is expected to be an unsettled one with wet and windy conditions prevailing. Colder spells in northern regions could bring an increasing possibility of sleet or snow over higher ground. Temperatures in the south are forecast to be close to average."

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Who knows at this stage, with a strong' El Nino the Met Office confirms fears El Nino could cause a harsh winter in Europe.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3089657/Brace-snowstorms-freezing-temperatures-Met-Office-confirms-fears-El-Nino-cause-harsh-winter-Europe.html

Edited August 31, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[radiohead]

Who knows at this stage, with a strong' El Nino the Met Office confirms fears El Nino could cause a harsh winter in Europe.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3089657/Brace-snowstorms-freezing-temperatures-Met-Office-confirms-fears-El-Nino-cause-harsh-winter-Europe.html

 

Quite a difference there between the dramatic headline and the actual quote from the Met Office.

 

 

Brace yourself for snowstorms and freezing temperatures: Met Office confirms fears El Nino could cause a harsh winter in Europe

 

 

He said it is too early to say definitively whether the UK would see a colder than average winter this year although did not rule it out.

He said: 'There is a small increase in the risk of a colder than average winter this year.

[summer blizzard]

Also one of the first bolded bits refers to Dec 10.. A La Nina event.

A basin wide Nino does increase the risk of a -AO in Jan and Feb though.

[lassie23]

Weatherweb TV are going for a mostly settled September and first half of October, before storms run riot towards late autumn and well into winter. They will be updating next month.

[summer blizzard]

I persist in my thoughts.. September to be the calm before the Oct-Dec storm.

[stainesbloke]

I persist in my thoughts.. September to be the calm before the Oct-Dec storm.

I think so too. May see some really nasty windstorms this Autumn/Winter. Hopefully a window of sunny and calm high pressure 23-27 Oct whilst I'm holidaying in Pembrokeshire though.

[damianslaw]

I find September most trying when it's anticylonic with temperatures in the 18-21C range a la 2014 and 2009, and the first half of 2007 to a certain degree. 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 I quite enjoyed as the weather was never the same for more than a few days at a time. In fact the contrasts in September 2011 and 2013 were quite notable, the former comprising such a stormy middle then hot end, the latter with such a warm first week then switch to autumn winds by midmonth. September does have all the hallmarks of being an interesting month with potential for true summer and true autumn in the same month, a bit like March re winter and spring, just so long as annoying highs don't turn up for too long.

 

Hard to say what September will turn out like. A lot will depend on hurricane activity and jet stream behaviour. Often the first week of September is quite settled, but the turning point of the month tends to be around the 10th. The fine settled weather of 2004 broke on the 10th, the heat of early 2005 broke around the 10th, same going for 2006, the warm settled start to 2012 ended on the 10th, 2013's warm settled start ended as early as the 06th. Looks like this year it might be similar to 2001, with frequent winds from a northerly quarter?

 

 

Wasn't 2006 the warmest Sept on record? I remember warmth lingering on well through the month up to at least the equinox, it was uniformly anticyclonic. Sept 2014 was also one of the warmest.

[MP-R]

Wasn't 2006 the warmest Sept on record? I remember warmth lingering on well through the month up to at least the equinox, it was uniformly anticyclonic. Sept 2014 was also one of the warmest.

 

Warm, yes. Settled, no. 2006 didn't feature any high pressure after the 10th. The month featured a lot of 'cyclonic warmth'. Actually looking through the archives, the only truly settled spell was from the 04th to the 10th.

Edited August 31, 2015 by MP-R

[summer blizzard]

Sep 06-Jan 07 was basically tropical. I'm pretty sure that every month was warmer, sunnier and wetter than average.

[summer blizzard]

First night in a long while where ita been genuinely cold. Can see my breath outside and dew is on the ground.

[Summer Sun]

Hawarden in Flintshire has had 40mm of rain already today

[stainesbloke]

Well so far Autumn 2015 has been utter garbage. Cold and cloudy with showers. Feels like late Oct not early Sep.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Looking 'fresh' for Saturday night/early sunday morning. 7c forecast for the Midlands

 

I hope this keeps up

[Wynn D Woo]

Autumn is currently like, well, Autumn really.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

WSI Europe Weather â€@WSI_EuroEnergy  27 mins27 minutes ago

Potential early morning mist and fog areas over British Isles and N France indicated by the black vertical lines.

 

 

Very Autumnal    

 

 

 

 

Edited September 4, 2015 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking 'fresh' for Saturday night/early sunday morning. 7c forecast for the Midlands

 

I hope this keeps up

Speaking on behalf of the other 99% of the population, I hope it doesn't! Let the cold nights come when they should I.e late October onwards.