Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[IanR]

bbc overhyping again , they give the impression of intense thundery activity spreading into  the midlands and north  through this afteroon and evening. 

 

dont bbc , just dont lie again

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Very excited... keeping an eye on the radar... beers ready

 

I've run out! Need to get some more, don't wanna get struck by lightning...... lol

[Nick L]

An outflow boundary is caused by the downdraft of a storm. The downdraft is a cold, descending flow of air from the storm, usually coinciding with falling precipitation. As this cold, dense air hits the ground, it spreads out away from the storm, causing a convergence zone, which can instigate further storms.

 

Last post on this so I don't drag the thread too far off topic, but here is an example from the US (their radar network is so much better than ours!):

 

[TropicThunder]

Had a few distant rumbles in Lymington this morning but otherwise it's been a pretty drab day in these parts. Moderate rain and murky grey skies, only now is the sun trying to poke through the greyness, not too hopeful of seeing anything later. That beast in France looks like missing the UK to me, would love to be in Lille right now!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

low cloud cleared here now.

 

Deffo energy there just can we tap into it :/ Need a trigger!

 

Edited August 13, 2015 by Surrey

[tcc]

Last post on this so I don't drag the thread too far off topic, but here is an example from the US (their radar network is so much better than ours!):

 

 

Yes I remember reading about these when Bren and Laura (Gilbert) went on a couple of Florida chases and the theory worked a treat! In here - http://www.eots.co.uk/chase/chase.htm - very interesting

[Rain123]

low cloud cleared here now.

 

Deffo energy there just can we tap into it :/ Need a trigger!

 

DSC_0996.JPG

Has it?! Still cloudy here.

[Norfolk Sheep]

East Anglia has these in it's sites IF they can make it which they should now we got better fuel

Doubt it, we don't do very well from the French these days unless it's way to the west! So annoying when the channel can't keep things together but the North Sea can keep storms going for ages....

[ChezWeather]

Development north of London!? 

[Gordon Webb]

GFS 12z doesn't look a lot different for precipitation haven't checked the rest

[Darren Bown]

It's interesting that showers have kicked off north of London, I would've imagined that to happen further south and east. It's very muggy here in Tadley still after constant moderate to heavy rain from noon until about 3.

[Gordon Webb]

Development north of London!? 

 

yep to the NW not sure if it's electrified or not

[Guest]

bbc overhyping again , they give the impression of intense thundery activity spreading into  the midlands and north  through this afteroon and evening. 

 

dont bbc , just dont lie again

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

I don't think they're lying  It's a difficult forecasting situation and the models haven't handled it especially well. We are due plenty of rain overnight. "Intense thundery activity" might be more than a little OTT but you have the opportunity to choose your words a little more carefully, instead of accusing them of lying!

 

MIssing out on storms is frustrating though, but plenty of time for that to change, and plenty of rain forecast as this low pushes north 

[ANYWEATHER]

Netweather has an alert for southern England and eastern England but the latest precip model shows the heaviest of rain moving north from southwest England through Wales and up to northern England and Wales and moving up through eastern Scotland tomorrow afternoon. The rest of us look like we will be getting little in the way of useful rain.....

[Gordon Webb]

Netweather has an alert for southern England and eastern England but the latest precip model shows the heaviest of rain moving north from southwest England through Wales and up to northern England and Wales and moving up through eastern Scotland tomorrow afternoon. The rest of us look like we will be getting little in the way of useful rain.....

 

yep GFS suggests the same

[Supacell]

It's interesting that showers have kicked off north of London, I would've imagined that to happen further south and east. It's very muggy here in Tadley still after constant moderate to heavy rain from noon until about 3.

 

Anywhere to the south of that light rain band across the central slice of the country is in the warm and humid air and subject to shower/storm development. They have developed quickly but are not thunderstorms, just heavy showers. They could develop into thunderstorms though (fingers crossed).

 

Further south it does look as if that storm over NE France is going to miss and head up the North Sea. It may clip the east of East Anglia though.

[Andy Bown]

Doubt it, we don't do very well from the French these days unless it's way to the west! So annoying when the channel can't keep things together but the North Sea can keep storms going for ages....

The Channel hasn't really killed anything today. There were 2 areas of storms/thundery rain of which 1 moved into the SW and the other into the SE of England leaving a big void in the middle. The movement of both being determined by the LOW pressure which hasn't got as far North as forecast yesterday.

 

Had those forecasts been accurate the splitting of the storm areas would have occurred further North and a far wider area would have been affected.

[Allezwasps.]

Sunshine breaking through here .... Will it be a trigger ?

[Gordon Webb]

Anywhere to the south of that light rain band across the central slice of the country is in the warm and humid air and subject to shower/storm development. They have developed quickly but are not thunderstorms, just heavy showers. They could develop into thunderstorms though (fingers crossed).

 

Further south it does look as if that storm over NE France is going to miss and head up the North Sea. It may clip the east of East Anglia though.

 

even if we are in unstable air I still think it was said that it needs to be warmer than it is to trigger maybe not showers but storms or is that a rather simplistic view of current situation

Edited August 13, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[IanR]

I don't think they're lying  It's a difficult forecasting situation and the models haven't handled it especially well. We are due plenty of rain overnight. "Intense thundery activity" might be more than a little OTT but you have the opportunity to choose your words a little more carefully, instead of accusing them of lying!

 

MIssing out on storms is frustrating though, but plenty of time for that to change, and plenty of rain forecast as this low pushes north  :)they 

they are not actually lying this time , but they did last time when thunderstorms were forecast to track north, it was helen willets last time who said '' intense thunderstorm are already tracking out of wales north east wards,   .....there were no storms anywhere  just light rain,  either a lie , or she was given some duff info,   just not good enough   

[Guest]

they are not actually lying this time , but they did last time when thunderstorms were forecast to track north, it was helen willets last time who said '' intense thunderstorm are already tracking out of wales north east wards,   .....there were no storms anywhere  just light rain,  either a lie , or she was given some duff info,   just not good enough   

I'd hate working for a forecasting agency during events like this. Models just aren't up to it.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Ian Fergusson is certainly not impressed with how models have performed. Derek Brockway on Twitter saying thunder risk in South Wales is "low".

[Rain123]

The BBC said thunderstorms in the south east tomorrow, but does anyone know roughly where they will develop? Cheers.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Storm is doing what I said.. Beginning to be pulled North West let's see if it can make it

Entering prime time or another way to put it "the last straw" haha

[Gordon Webb]

The BBC said thunderstorms in the south east tomorrow, but does anyone know roughly where they will develop? Cheers.

 

I think it would be a case of just wait and see probably the best way