Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[robmarks]

Parts of Kent and East Sussex could have some serious flooding problems by the end of this evening.

Some parts already do have serious flooding problems.  I think there is a bit of an *if* on storms later though.  I'm not so sure about that.

[drgl]

here we go ladies and gentleman

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6bB2xPvRuk 

Like the crack at 9.45ish, gets the birds flying!!

[Guest]

Parts of Kent and East Sussex could have some serious flooding problems by the end of this evening.

This.

 

We're all giddy about the thunder and lightning prospects (which I'm keeping a beady eye on later on today/overnight), but the slow moving heavy rain is going to be the main headline of this event. Not as exciting but more devastating on a wider scale.

[Gordon Webb]

I'd be quite happy to see the biscay LP continue it's very slow progress as storms that either have or will fire over northern France will track north westerly in central southern England in conjunction with the hot, clear air drawing north through France and the English Channel....The caveat being though that the LP will drift north eastwards taking it's attendant thundery weather further to the east and north east affecting only the far SE and the near continent with rainy remnants affecting the rest of England and Wales this evening and overnight

 

are you saying you'd like to see it happen but it won't

[Nick L]

Some parts already do have serious flooding problems.  I think there is a bit of an *if* on storms later though.  I'm not so sure about that.

 

Indeed, just seeing the photos.

 

Euro 4 has a sense of de ja vu, with another torrential pulse moving into the SE corner. This is what the latest warnings are based on.

[Dami]

This.

 

We're all giddy about the thunder and lightning prospects (which I'm keeping a beady eye on later on today/overnight), but the slow moving heavy rain is going to be the main headline of this event. Not as exciting but more devastating on a wider scale.

This was one reason i wasn't excited about the heavy rain, as I've already seen it first hand out flooded the coast can get.

[Gordon Webb]

Indeed, just seeing the photos.

 

Euro 4 has a sense of de ja vu, with another torrential pulse moving into the SE corner. This is what the latest warnings are based on.

 

GFS also has heavier rain based in that region more so late afternoon evening ties in with met amber warning

Edited August 13, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Atmogenic]

Like the crack at 9.45ish, gets the birds flying!!

thank you, It did make me jump as you can tell with the instant moving as soon as the strike appeared 

Edited August 13, 2015 by Atmogenic

[robmarks]

Reports now coming in that the roof on a childens adventure play centre in Eastbourne has possibly collapsed as a result of heavy rain.  Worrying... but hopefully not as bad as it sounds.

 

I'm not joking when I say that there has been some really serious rainfall in Sussex so far today.  I suspect we're talking 3-5 inches in 12-hours, before anything that comes this afternoon.

[sunnijim]

Close fork lightning and shotgun thunder here in SE13. Further distant rumbles too

[Singularity]

Pretty peed off at today's outcome to be honest, but you can't win it all. Steady rain, not all that heavy, just a nuisance.

 

Having said that, there may be a silver lining to come down here soon - there's some clearer skies coming up from The Channel which could allow temps to jump up into the 20's, even a chance that GFS could end up remarkably close to the mark with the maximum temps should the skies behave themselves with nothing blowing up on the coast to fill in the gaps... jinxing it I know!

 

Now then, where's the evening threat for the SE at the moment? A lack of lightning activity over NE France suggests that it hasn't initiated yet, but there's still some 8 hours or so in which that can happen. Curiously enough, the 06z Euro4 has brought some of the evening action further west than any previous run. Things kick off rapidly between Brighton and Dover... could they get slammed with the most intense precipitation twice in the same day?! 

 

 

Looking ahead to tomorrow for a moment, the shift east in the low has resulted in a similar shift east of the slow moving frontal boundary on the Euro4 output for example. That model has also explored the possibility of an area of enhanced instability just ahead of the boundary, affecting areas Dorset/W. Hants northward during the morning hours. The 00z even suggested a notable wave in the boundary developing close to the S. Coast which really boosted the rain to troublesome levels. The 06z has backed off with more of a 'sporadic thunderstorms' theme.

 

One big spanner in the works as far as forecasting is concerned is GFS, which insists that the boundary will traverse only Cornwall and Dorset before fizzling out. That's a huge difference for less than 24 hours ahead, I am struggling to retain my sanity forecasting two such highly volatile days in succession! 

[drgl]

Most of us on here enjoy a storm but this is not good....

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-33907476

 

Stay safe everyone.

[A.J]

are you saying you'd like to see it happen but it won't

yes, partly.....it all depends on the speed and track of the low pressure and the drivers that'll affect its evolution, in this case the timing of the atlantic incurrence from the NW (cold front to the west and north west of the British Isles)

[robmarks]

Reports now coming in that the roof on a childens adventure play centre in Eastbourne has possibly collapsed as a result of heavy rain.  Worrying... but hopefully not as bad as it sounds.

 

Pleased to say confirmed that this is not the case, although the centre has been closed and evacuated.

[Supacell]

Ok, all set to get out there and chase. I am not liking the chances here in Derby as it looks like it will be a dying feature (sferic wise) as the rains arrive here this evening and tonight. I may be wrong but even if not it would be nice to get somewhere which has a higher chance of a thunderstorm.

 

I am liking somewhere to the north of London - just not sure as to NW, N or NE of London. I guess I can make that decision when I am down there.

[Paul]

We've cleared through 12,000 lightning strikes so far today

 

[Gordon Webb]

Reports now coming in that the roof on a childens adventure play centre in Eastbourne has possibly collapsed as a result of heavy rain.  Worrying... but hopefully not as bad as it sounds.

 

I'm not joking when I say that there has been some really serious rainfall in Sussex so far today.  I suspect we're talking 3-5 inches in 12-hours, before anything that comes this afternoon.

 

I really hope nothing nasty has occured from that

[NO LONGER POSTING]

All eyes down south now for the whole southern region, 

 

The clear gap is developing nicely..

 

Hold on tight.. The next roller coaster begins soon 

[Gordon Webb]

yes, partly.....it all depends on the speed and track of the low pressure and the drivers that'll affect its evolution, in this case the timing of the atlantic incurrence from the NW (cold front to the west and north west of the British Isles)

 

met office think it'll be over eastern england this evening and eastern scotland by morning  If it's the featuire your on about looks like the more convective element could be over the East and just more general rain over W certainly and possibly central areas too

[Daniel*]

Most of us on here enjoy a storm but this is not good....

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-33907476

 

Stay safe everyone.

As much I as I sympathise with these people it is exhilarating.

I got a storm short but sweet it has surpassed my expectation for today anything more a bonus.

[Chris K]

met office think it'll be over eastern england this evening and eastern scotland by morning  If it's the featuire your on about looks like the more convective element could be over the East and just more general rain over W certainly and possibly central areas too

 

That's the way I see it, storm activity confined to SE/E regions. Some heavier bursts showing in recent forecasts for the W country later this evening 9-10pm but that looks to be part of the general band moving in, which will sweep the warmer, muggier air out of the way. Although it still feels chilly here haha!

[Guest]

We've cleared through 12,000 lightning strikes so far today

 

12000strikessofar.jpeg

but more than 10,000 have been offshore so they don't really count.

[Gordon Webb]

That's the way I see it, storm activity confined to SE/E regions. Some heavier bursts showing in recent forecasts for the W country later this evening 9-10pm but that looks to be part of the general band moving in, which will sweep the warmer, muggier air out of the way. Although it still feels chilly here haha!

 

yeah i was just outside overcast chilly breeze and if i was going out i'd be taking a coat

but more than 10,000 have been offshore so they don't really count.

 

and the other two thousand strikes have been by french workers of some sort not sure which lot is striking this week

Edited August 13, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Noahjoe]

Well it's been an exciting morning so far down on the south coast....the intense thunderstorm moved in just as I was collecting my results. People were unable to submit remarks because a whole building was inacessible due to flooding, unfortunately I didn't get any pictures

 

Here's to hoping for more of the same later on!

 

EDIT: The sun has now come out and it's feeling warm and very humid

Edited August 13, 2015 by Noahjoe

[anything-but]

Riding a motorbike + loads of rain = my nether regions having their own en suite swimming pool.

Not nice out here!