Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[robmarks]

There's been reports on BBC News about flooding in Eastbourne affecting the trains and forcing evacuation of the shopping centre. Can't find a link to it on the website though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-33907476

 

Yep.

[chionomaniac]

Still lots to look forward to for later today. We appear to have some new babies backbuilding towards the coast in the SE, whilst there is a line of showery activity which could become thundery stretching from the SW Cornwall down to the Channel Islands. And everything is now moving north.

[WillinGlossop]

Friends on fb putting up pictures of flooding in ashford/maidstone/north kent....

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of images here of the flooding in Eastbourne

 

https://twitter.com/search?q=eastbourne&src=typd

 

Edited August 13, 2015 by Summer Sun

[TheToastPeople]

I will need to go take a walk then.

 

Hi toast!

Hello Dami, I would make your walk quick seems as the rain is almost here! Lets keep our fingers crossed for some thunder later on today here

[Sussex Jules]

There's been reports on BBC News about flooding in Eastbourne affecting the trains and forcing evacuation of the shopping centre. Can't find a link to it on the website though.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-33907476

Plenty of images here of the flooding in Eastbourne

 

https://twitter.com/search?q=eastbourne&src=typd

 

There was a burst water main in Eastbourne this morning and I think this is what this photo is showing.

[weatherobsuk]

Safe to say that Eastbourne airshow will be a washout today and likely tomorrow too.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The second storm seems to be moving a lot more North West than the first

[robmarks]

Safe to say that Eastbourne airshow will be a washout today and likely tomorrow too.

All flying displays cancelled today.

[dryas]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-33907476

There was a burst water main in Eastbourne this morning and I think this is what this photo is showin

Yep - given that water is clearly coming up from underground!

[alexisj9]

Updated warnings from the met office

 

Issued at: 1017 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid from: 1030 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

 

An area of heavy and thundery rain over southern England will push erratically northwards during the day bringing the potential for torrential downpours in places. The public should be aware of a significant risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding. Lightning and hail are likely to be additional hazards.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure over northern France will extend into eastern England tonight. The very warm air in the system has a high water loading, giving the potential for very large rainfall rates. More than 30 mm of rain may fall in a relatively short space of time in some places whilst locally in excess of 70 mm is possible in just a few hours.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1439420400&regionName=uk

 

Issued at: 1033 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid from: 0010 on Fri 14 Aug 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Fri 14 Aug 2015

 

An area of locally heavy rain already affecting much of England and Wales as well as parts of Scotland at the start of Friday lingers across these areas through the early hours of Friday and Friday morning. Rain is likely to be both persistent and heavy at times. Also a risk of thunder, most likely over parts of England and Wales. This rain will tend to clear from the west through the day, whilst generally becoming less heavy, and will probably become confined to eastern UK by the end of Friday. There is however a risk that intense thundery downpours may develop again during the late afternoon and evening across south east England and East Anglia. The public should be aware of a significant risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding. Lightning may be an additional hazard.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure near eastern England early Thursday continues slowly northwards to be centred near or just east of Scotland by Friday afternoon. With very warm air in the system, further outbreaks of locally heavy rainfall are likely during Friday, particularly during morning, with locally in excess of 50 mm by the end of Friday. Localised thunderstorms may also develop across south east England and East Anglia during Friday late afternoon and evening, these potentially giving 15-25 mm of rain in an hour. The development and subsequent track of this system is very complex, therefore the exact locations of where the heaviest rainfall will occur remains uncertain. With this in mind this warning may be updated again tomorrow.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1439506800&regionName=uk

So the low is just moving slower than the models thought, I though so, sounds like the same forecast but 24 hours later.

[Hirudine]

Rain's quite heavy here and has been for well over half an hour- I'm just debating whether to make a dash for the bank or not! I have to admit I'm hoping that second storm near Hastings might eventually clip East London.

[Sussex Jules]

Met Office have just issued amber warning for rain for south east.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1439420400&regionName=se

Edited August 13, 2015 by Sussex Jules

[sunnijim]

There's been reports on BBC News about flooding in Eastbourne affecting the trains and forcing evacuation of the shopping centre. Can't find a link to it on the website though.

The Brighton Argus website has many details of South coast rain problems.

Airbourne cancelled In Eastbourne.

[Gordon Webb]

met off has put out amber warnings for e england / london SE can't get other details

edit it's for Essex, Southend-on-Sea, Thurrock

Issued at:

1301 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid from:

1600 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid to:

2100 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

After very heavy downpours this morning, a second cluster of torrential, thundery downpours is expected to move north across the area from late afternoon. The public should be prepared for the risk of flooding of roads and properties.

Another pulse of thundery activity from France will extend across the area this afternoon and evening. The ground remains saturated from earlier heavy rain, and the high water loading in the atmosphere means that more than 30 mm in an hour or less could well occur locally

Edited August 13, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Atmogenic]

here we go ladies and gentleman

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6bB2xPvRuk 

[Summer Sun]

Amber warning

 

Issued at: 1301 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid from: 1600 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid to: 2100 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

 

After very heavy downpours this morning, a second cluster of torrential, thundery downpours is expected to move north across the area from late afternoon. The public should be prepared for the risk of flooding of roads and properties.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another pulse of thundery activity from France will extend across the area this afternoon and evening. The ground remains saturated from earlier heavy rain, and the high water loading in the atmosphere means that more than 30 mm in an hour or less could well occur locally.

 

Covers

 

East of England, London & South East England

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1439420400&regionName=uk

[A.J]

all the cloud, be it storms or just rain baring are spiraling cyclonically around the shallow LP over Biscay, so the upwind weather so to speak will travel in the direction of this cyclonic flow depending on your position in relation to the LP.....in the far SE, storms look to track northerly, whilst in Central Southern England, the storms/rain will track north westerly, in the far south west, the storms/rain will track almost westerly......The LP itself, whilst not stalled is making slow progress towards the UK, and this is causing a headache for the forecasters modelling....hence the reason, storms seem to be 'stuck' in the SE quarter whilst the bulk of central/southern England has remained relatively rain free.....This will change though as the LP continues to track towards the UK.

 

 

Certainly for many of us in central/southern England the weather could hardly feel less 'plume-like' with featureless overcast skies, a keen easterly based breeze surpressing surface temperatures with rain encroaching from the SE associated with mid-level and low level detritus from the small MCS over the SE

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Another new cell firing south of London... 

 

 

Slowly as she comes 

Edited August 13, 2015 by Surrey

[Daniel*]

Long distance thunder heard about 5m ago the great flood continues.

Closer distance rumble just heard.

[suzanne]

Any chance of some reaching as far as Cambridge........no rain here yet today.....

[A.J]

I'd be quite happy to see the biscay LP continue it's very slow progress as storms that either have or will fire over northern France will track north westerly in central southern England in conjunction with the hot, clear air drawing north through France and the English Channel....The caveat being though that the LP will drift north eastwards taking it's attendant thundery weather further to the east and north east affecting only the far SE and the near continent with rainy remnants affecting the rest of England and Wales this evening and overnight

[Dami]

Another new cell firing south of London... 

 

low.jpg

 

Slowly as she comes 

she is riding a snail!

[Nick L]

Parts of Kent and East Sussex could have some serious flooding problems by the end of this evening.

[Daniel*]

I just witnessed a CG strike as white as snow with a terrific boooom.