Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[chionomaniac]

Lots of T&L here in the last 20minutes, rain is just slightly not as intense now. 

[Rain123]

It doesn't look very convective outside yet their is convective-style rainfall not to mention T&L.

[Mercury Rising]

Those are false strikes, I tend to tell by looking at the radar and how heavy the PPN is in that area to judge if it is false or not..

 

BUT MORE THUNDER HEARD HERE!!

 

May I ask (as I'm a complete novice but really interested)  is that a glitch in the software that records the storms or another technical term for a type  lightning? thanks   

[Dean E]

Skies clearing rapidly now over Northern France and into the channel, this is good news for any surface based storms that may form later. Will be worth keeping an eye on that area later this afternoon.

 

Currently raining pretty steady here, has been for the past 2 hours now. 21mm has fallen already! Occasional thunder here, but not frequent and has been quite for the past half hour now.

[Neilsouth]

It feels distinctly chilly outside Still watching those storms slowly approach

[A.J]

We're having a thunderless, rainless and sfericless storm......ho hum :s

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Skies clearing rapidly now over Northern France and into the channel, this is good news for any surface based storms that may form later. Will be worth keeping an eye on that area later this afternoon.

 

Currently raining pretty steady here, has been for the past 2 hours now. 21mm has fallen already! Occasional thunder here, but not frequent and has been quite for the past half hour now.

 

Indeed just looking at that to.. Give it till about 3-4pm and I think the sun might come out 

Edited August 13, 2015 by Surrey

[Rain123]

Another rumble

[NO LONGER POSTING]

May I ask (as I'm a complete novice but really interested)  is that a glitch in the software that records the storms or another technical term for a type  lightning? thanks   

 

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page=3

[Azazel]

moderate rain here now from a featureless grey cloudbase

[Chris K]

moderate rain here now from a featureless grey cloudbase

 

I am salivating at the thought of that mass of boringness heading my way.

[Summer Sun]

Updated warnings from the met office

 

Issued at: 1017 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid from: 1030 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

 

An area of heavy and thundery rain over southern England will push erratically northwards during the day bringing the potential for torrential downpours in places. The public should be aware of a significant risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding. Lightning and hail are likely to be additional hazards.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure over northern France will extend into eastern England tonight. The very warm air in the system has a high water loading, giving the potential for very large rainfall rates. More than 30 mm of rain may fall in a relatively short space of time in some places whilst locally in excess of 70 mm is possible in just a few hours.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1439420400&regionName=uk

 

Issued at: 1033 on Thu 13 Aug 2015

Valid from: 0010 on Fri 14 Aug 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Fri 14 Aug 2015

 

An area of locally heavy rain already affecting much of England and Wales as well as parts of Scotland at the start of Friday lingers across these areas through the early hours of Friday and Friday morning. Rain is likely to be both persistent and heavy at times. Also a risk of thunder, most likely over parts of England and Wales. This rain will tend to clear from the west through the day, whilst generally becoming less heavy, and will probably become confined to eastern UK by the end of Friday. There is however a risk that intense thundery downpours may develop again during the late afternoon and evening across south east England and East Anglia. The public should be aware of a significant risk of localised disruption due to surface water flooding. Lightning may be an additional hazard.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of low pressure near eastern England early Thursday continues slowly northwards to be centred near or just east of Scotland by Friday afternoon. With very warm air in the system, further outbreaks of locally heavy rainfall are likely during Friday, particularly during morning, with locally in excess of 50 mm by the end of Friday. Localised thunderstorms may also develop across south east England and East Anglia during Friday late afternoon and evening, these potentially giving 15-25 mm of rain in an hour. The development and subsequent track of this system is very complex, therefore the exact locations of where the heaviest rainfall will occur remains uncertain. With this in mind this warning may be updated again tomorrow.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1439506800&regionName=uk

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Although the models did a poor attempt.. there is this now showing on the latest run 

 

[Paul]

I think LightningMaps is playing up a bit. The strike near guildford I didn't hear, and strikes near watford?

 

This is part of the problem with systems which try to triangulate strikes off of small personal type lightning detectors - we used to use that sort of thing ourselves but switched to ATD because it's far more reliable. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[Chris K]

Although the models did a poor attempt.. there is this now showing on the latest run 

 

 

I don't trust that at all now. I understand the uncertainties involved around storm forecasting but the outcome couldn't be more different to what the models(incl high res) were showing last night if it tried. This summer, precip forecasts for this area have been next to useless in each potential storm setup we've had, ending with diddly squit.

 

Just look at all that crud fizzling out as it heads NW...it still feels chilly here so either the warmer air mass has not arrived or it is way further East than forecast yesterday.

 

SE and E Anglia again in the firing zones for any developments later by the looks of things. Light-mod rain, if that, for us in the W until the main band pushes back in tomorrow to water the gardens. Top stuff.

Edited August 13, 2015 by Chris K

[Guest]

Featureless grey skies and rain reports down south, but this is all about the rain. Looks like some unfortunate areas will get a serious amount of rain over the next 24-36 hours.

[Summer Sun]

Some torrential rain south of London currently

 

[TwisterGirl81]

It's just dull and grey in Exeter, looks like the typical places ie far cornwall and the southeast will get their usual thunderstorms, not very exciting.

 

But here's hoping for something tomorrow for this part of the country....

[Supacell]

There is still a great deal of difference between the models. 

 

Euro 4/MNN/WRF all show thunderstorms across my area late evening and overnight.

 

GFS/Met Office do not show thunderstorms for my area.

 

Overall they all agree now on something moving up from the south coast in a NNW direction. Some of the models have this grazing the SE, EA and the east coast whereas others have it going through the middle of the country. 

 

Netweather Storm risk charts shows a 52-57% for Derby overnight but some parts of the SE, EA and Eastern England have up to an 80% risk.

 

It has been said already and I am in agreement, it is all down to radar watching now. Currently best activity in the far SE, especially southern parts of Kent. Humidity is rising from the south, currently dewpoints at 14c here with a temperature of 19c. Dewpoints in and around the thundery weather in the SE are now up to 18c. 

 

Not much signs of cloud breaking over this side of the Channel but France and Benelux now basking under sunshine - fuel for tonight's fire I hope!

[Gordon Webb]

that rain in the SE is expected to be weaker by the time it gets to me IF it gets to me at all of course i could with the rain just not the thunder

Edited August 13, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Woollymummy]

Just big drops of rain, I am sure I can hear very low rumbles to the South East of here, how far do the lowest frequencies carry? More than ten miles for sure.....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

There is still a great deal of difference between the models. 

 

Euro 4/MNN/WRF all show thunderstorms across my area late evening and overnight.

 

GFS/Met Office do not show thunderstorms for my area.

 

Overall they all agree now on something moving up from the south coast in a NNW direction. Some of the models have this grazing the SE, EA and the east coast whereas others have it going through the middle of the country. 

 

Netweather Storm risk charts shows a 52-57% for Derby overnight but some parts of the SE, EA and Eastern England have up to an 80% risk.

 

It has been said already and I am in agreement, it is all down to radar watching now. Currently best activity in the far SE, especially southern parts of Kent. Humidity is rising from the south, currently dewpoints at 14c here with a temperature of 19c. Dewpoints in and around the thundery weather in the SE are now up to 18c. 

 

Not much signs of cloud breaking over this side of the Channel but France and Benelux now basking under sunshine - fuel for tonight's fire I hope!

Yes! Noticed a recent spike in lightning activity over Kent too. This currently heading towards Essex and Cambridgeshire way as it stands.

[sunnijim]

Looks like the Met Office think Friday afternoon and evening could be a better bet for thunderstorms 'proper' across SE England.

Apart from heavy outbreaks of rain today and some South coast lightning earlier today looks a 'busted flush' for decent storms.

[Paul Ashford]

Constant lighting and really loud thunder in Ashford Kent.

[chionomaniac]

New lightning cell seems to be forming above me in Burgess Hill after a quieter spell. Just had shotgun lightning!