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Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

looking at the latest, i think there maybe a little disappointment for some. as usual its all been a tad overhyped. hope im wrong

 

some will be undoubtedly be dissappointed , this was called complex to forecast by the met office and even Nick F this morning does'nt know how far north the activity in the channel will get and that was less than 2 hours ago and that is expected to wane the further north one goes , looks the best of it could be on the south coast

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Sussex Jules Community Regular

Sussex Jules

Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare
Posted

More rumbles starting around here!

Yep just heard a very deep one. Been told from someone in Eastbourne they had about 30mm of rain since midnight, I'm on just over 23mm so far but looking outside it has just started up again.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Given how slow moving these storms are and the rainfall rates associated, flash flooding will be a big cause for concern in my book for people in the SE especially.

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted

Had some thundery rain around 4 am which woke me up and then heavy rain for another couple of hours, been dry since 7am but looks to be more heavy rain on it's way!

I think any 'Ark' building can be called off to be honest,any thoughts of 100mm of rain that were banded about yesterday seem somewhat unlikely,and imo even half that total anywhere.
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Models seem to have overestimated yesterday how quickly the unstable plume advances into S England today, but it looks as if storms will spread N and NW across S England and perhaps S Wales today, the greatest severe risk always towards the SE - as per my forecast, where we will see strong storms firing over N France in the heat there feeding in across SE England, particularly this evening.

Edited by Nick F
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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted (edited)

I need nature's fireworks now to celebrate getting into university! Give me a thunderstorm tonight! :D

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

And I've emptied out my emergency hiding cupboard for not a lot it seems pfffff

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

I need nature's fireworks now to celebrate getting into univeristy! Give me a thunderstorm tonight! :D

Lol. Congratulations bud :)

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Lol. Congratulations bud :)

 

Thanks :)

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Quite a lot of interest on the south coast this morning as a large area of thunderstorms move onto land. We could see them pretty much anywhere across the south today. :)

 

post-21671-0-67196700-1439454583_thumb.p

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted

indeed it is

 

I've got until 5pm this eve when I have to be back to pick up girlfriend from work.

 

Any suggestions on good view points should I head east?

Portsdown hill
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Going to be a messy structureless sky day I think with the strong easterly driving grey stratus beneath any storms coming over the Channel. Best place N France where there'll be hot sunshine initiating storms later

Edited by Nick F
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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

I need nature's fireworks now to celebrate getting into univeristy! Give me a thunderstorm tonight! :D

 

well done

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

Wheey 2 proper rumbles of thunder just went off!, Extremely huge drops f rain

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Unless I'm not seeing the potential for homegrowns later in England and perhaps S Wales, will any storms even head NW?

Instability looks confined to the SE and I may be wrong saying this, but to my eyes it seems to be another 100-200 mile shift east for the right storm ingredients that the models didn't show until this "event" actually began developing?

Edited by Chris K
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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted (edited)

well done

 

congrats, where you off? Just about to go get my results!!! Let's hope a nice thunderstorm will hit later

 

Thanks guys, I'm off to Salford. :)

 

Let's hope that activity across the south coast quickly spreads northwards. :)

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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BrickFielder Rising Star

BrickFielder

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
Posted

 Looking at the models there seems to be a lot of similarities with the modelling from yesterday. Once difference is that the storms coming up from the south over night have mostly not materialized and much of the southern half of the UK is covered with cloudy murk which is not conducive to instability.

 

From the models I am still picking up potential for the south east with storms developing over France perhaps making it across to the UK.

post-2809-0-15055200-1439454012_thumb.pn

The vorticity disturbance showing up on this lightning wizard chart suggests a potential for a severe storm developing its own dynamic environment   (south east).

There is still the suggestion of convergence and moisture pooling for the south west later on in the afternoon.

post-2809-0-54072300-1439454128_thumb.pn

post-2809-0-99209600-1439454222_thumb.pnpost-2809-0-82117700-1439454235_thumb.pn

 

The problem is that rainfall modelling does not really match that well with current rainfall radar. It looks to me like the low over the Bay of Biscay has moved further east than predicted and is not lifting out along the forecast timeline.

 

Satellite pictures suggest to me than the south coast of the UK is under a warm front shield with cloud stretching up into the midlands. This shield looks to be moving westwards around the Biscay low with thunderstorm development limited to the tail of the warm front over France. That tail could also move westwards meaning there is the potential for storms to develop over the south east. The cold front stretching into France looks fairly vigorous but there are hints of a new front developing closer to the Biscay Low.

 

post-2809-0-98609000-1439454572_thumb.pn

 

Over all I am still confused about the potential today and feel models just have the timing and placements today a little off. Areas to watch are the South East/ East Anglia from mid day onwards and perhaps the southwest later in the afternoon. One final chart which suggests that there is an ability to produce high rain fall amounts from this scenario.

post-2809-0-67673100-1439455272_thumb.pn

 

Happy radar watching.

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Glenosnow Contributor

Glenosnow

Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
Posted

Thundering here at work.....near fareham.

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cotswoldsnow Newbie

cotswoldsnow

Posted
  • Location: north west oxforshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snow, hurricanes
  • Location: north west oxforshire
Posted

I need nature's fireworks now to celebrate getting into university! Give me a thunderstorm tonight! :D

excellent news, you'll have a brilliant time. what are you studying?

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Glenosnow Contributor

Glenosnow

Posted
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms /Snow
  • Location: Totton/Netley Marsh....edge of new forest.
Posted

Thundering here at work.....near fareham.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Hearing rumbles here in Burgess Hill and the lights keep flickering.

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