Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Gordon Webb]

looks like the same areas that were hit this morning are going to be hit again and with an amber warning as well I hope everybody down there stays safe

[dragon falls]

Dry here in Cardiff with all the warnings out

[Azazel]

Yeah, thats definitely it for us, unless that ridiculous storm in NE France takes a sharp left turn (it wont)

 

Nothing happening in N or NW France.

 

LAMMMMMEEEEEE

[A.J]

I am looking forward though to the reports and pics/footage from those in Sussex and Kent, you guys should get the opportunity for some cracking storms later

[ChezWeather]

I am interested as to how far north the cells across NE France can get before they die and if the westward pull as they enter the UK could send them towards the East Midlands?

Heres to hoping! not confident of anything here but theres always a chance! 

[Gordon Webb]

I am interested as to how far north the cells across NE France can get before they die and if the westward pull as they enter the UK could send them towards the East Midlands?

 

I'd be surprised if they did

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting direction to say the least thought they would be in Belgium by now 

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

[Dami]

just a normal rainy august day here. oh well.

[TwisterGirl81]

I'm hoping things develop in NW France soon (no not the same place as Surrey, he meant NE France). Ideally the Cherbourg peninsula to light up would be great!

 

Oh well William, maybe tomorrow we will see something, I was always under the impression it would be the far southeast/southeast that were always going to be in the firing line dispite some forecasts....as per usual....

 

I've learnt not to ever get hopes up in regards to thunderstorms coming from south due to the cool seas around the southwest whereas the south east is closer to the continent and generally has more energy and warmth than here, it's frustrating for us storm lovers in southwest especially Devon but mno ones to blame.

 

To the southeast, enjoy the storms you lucky buggars mind you I should think the rain is most welcome.

[Eskimo]

173 strikes a minute now from those storms in France 

[Cableguy]

Half tempted to head down to the Sussex/Kent coast this evening as little chance of anything here.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Opinion expressed on Twitter that yellow warning for Bristol area is now superfluous. Ian Fergusson concurs with it.

[Supacell]

WRF shows around an inch of rain across the Midlands overnight, although not sure whether this would be thundery or just rain. Thunderstorms or not there looks to be a lot of rain across England overnight tonight.

 

EDIT: Having said that there is certainly not an even spread. Some places could see very little whereas others see a deluge (as has already happened in the SE). Actually, I give up its too complicated to forecast       

Edited August 13, 2015 by Supacell

[whoissean]

That activity over France looks sweet but I'd only expect this to probs hit South Eastern parts of the UK at best may clip parts of Eastern England and East Anglia if it's not lost most of it spark by them.  This system will trundle off into the North Sea.

Edited August 13, 2015 by whoissean

[A.J]

for us along the M4 corridor (Wilts/berks) the sliver of opportunity is this evening as we'll be under clearer but inherently unstable air (both at the surface and in the mid-levels) for a few hours.....looking at the upper flow and modeled instability during this time period, I'd be slightly more encouraged if any storms fire in a line roughly Le Havre - Paris...If any storms fire and can draw enough energy from the surrounding atmosphere to regenerate (multicellular) then we could be in with a should.......it is a bit of straw clutching though it has to be said 

[Eskimo]

What's the prognosis for Hertfordshire, I'm just really confused. 

[Nick L]

What's the prognosis for Hertfordshire, I'm just really confused. 

 

Don't hold your breath would be my advice.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

those storms deffo don't want to pay Belgium a visit (jesus!) but do they want to pay the UK one.. 

[A Frayed Knot]

Any chance that south east wales will get in the action of some of these storms' nothing at here has developed not even a shower .

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Prime time looks to be between 6pm-8pm for firing some more new strikes are appearing though further west 

[A.J]

Any chance that south east wales will get in the action of some of these storms' nothing at here has developed not even a shower .

unlikely to be honest.....sorry

[A Frayed Knot]

unlikely to be honest.....sorry

Ok thank you very much

[Rain123]

I think that I am to far west to get those storms over north east France.

[Nick L]

Can see an outflow boundary on the SW side of the line of storms near Amiens on the 5 min satellite. Could initiate storm development further west over France.

Edited August 13, 2015 by Nick L

[cotswoldsnow]

glanced at the radar, nothing to write home about. light rain here