Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[A.J]

repeat this mantra.....the models do not dictate the weather......the models do not dictate the weather.....the models do not dictate the weather.......keep on repeating it for long enough and the message becomes clear   

[Gordon Webb]

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

the models do not dictate the weather

[VillagePlank]

All is not lost if you are in the SE. I've poured over the models, and come up with a chart with likely storm tracks,

 

 

I have to say, I am quietly confident.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Reckon that is a bow echo in Belgium now. Incredible stuff.

[Carl46Wrexham]

repeat this mantra.....the models do not dictate the weather......the models do not dictate the weather.....the models do not dictate the weather.......keep on repeating it for long enough and the message becomes clear   

Then repeat this one...the met office do not lie...

Anyone who seriously believes they do is an Express reader and/or a James Madden disciple.

[Gordon Webb]

All is not lost if you are in the SE. I've poured over the models, and come up with a chart with likely storm tracks,

 

analysis.png

 

I have to say, I am quietly confident.

 

LOL i like that

[Lauren]

All is not lost if you are in the SE. I've poured over the models, and come up with a chart with likely storm tracks,

 

analysis.png

 

I have to say, I am quietly confident.

 

As a Medway resident, I shall be holding you personally responsible if you've just jinxed it.

[Dami]

My home town was hit bad with flooding, so it could be said that the SE should of been given a higher level of warning before the event hit us, but at least people were aware of the fact very heavy rain could or would hit them.

That's at least better than saying 'light rain would move up the country followed by moderate showers' ( weather I got)

I think it better to be over the top a bit and get it wrong then under estimate it and get it very wrong - let's be honest- Thunderstorms and heavy rain can be deadly.

Saying that i've had some of the best storms when they weren't forecast, or not just the other day rain when my forecast said dry.

Forecasts should be used as a tool to give you an idea of what you could get, not what 100% is going to happen.

That would be very boring.

[johnholmes]

they are not actually lying this time , but they did last time when thunderstorms were forecast to track north, it was helen willets last time who said '' intense thunderstorm are already tracking out of wales north east wards,   .....there were no storms anywhere  just light rain,  either a lie , or she was given some duff info,   just not good enough   

 

gawd, some of you talk like idiots. Why on earth would a forecaster lie, maybe she should have you in court for deformation of character or something.

[A.J]

Then repeat this one...the met office do not lie...

Anyone who seriously believes they do is an Express reader and/or a James Madden disciple.

indeed!......a few disgruntled Express readers in here, me thinks!

 

 

here's a couple of threads for those of us unhappy with today's events

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/

Edited August 13, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's not a done deal yet..

Think those storms are saying "make a u turn makea u turn "

[Condor Vitesse]

repeat this mantra.....the models do not dictate the weather......the models do not dictate the weather.....the models do not dictate the weather.......keep on repeating it for long enough and the message becomes clear

Can i have a storm please. I feel left out....Lol Edited August 13, 2015 by Condor Vitesse

[Stormyking]

I think Tomorrow should be kept a close eye on for some places, parts of the South and East will still be in relatively warm air... Before a front pushes in from the West, which could set off some heavy thundery downpours in parts of Central, Southern and Eastern England.

 

I reckon if any of this happens, any showers/storms will start off quite Elevated and then turning more surface based as the winds turn West to North Westerly.

 

 

There is also some surface based cape around

 

 

Im not one to stand by the GFS alot, but this Morning it had a similar idea, also some of the high res models also had similar ideas.. So guys who ever hasnt had storms, dont give up just yet

Edited August 13, 2015 by Stormyking

[Rain123]

Its gone a bit darker to my south.

[Weather-history]

gawd, some of you talk like idiots. Why on earth would a forecaster lie, maybe she should have you in court for deformation of character or something.

Forget it John trying to reason withthem . It's more important to throw the toys out of the prams, have a paddy and scream "where's my storms? You promise me storms, you bad people. I am going to tell my mummy that you lied to me"

Edited August 13, 2015 by Weather-history

[Supacell]

even if we are in unstable air I still think it was said that it needs to be warmer than it is to trigger maybe not showers but storms or is that a rather simplistic view of current situation

 

It would need to be a lot warmer to trigger thunderstorms, it is only around 20-21c at best in the area where these showers are developing. However, nothing has gone to plan today so who is to say that the trigger temperatures are completely out too. In all honesty though I do not expect surface based storms to develop now, it really hasn't gotten warm enough.

 

Overnight the storms would be elevated and so will ride the plume and thus not be affected by surface conditions. However, it would seem any thundery activity will be at a premium away from the SE corner and East Anglia. For a storm lover like me it is all a bit of a disappointment. I imagine you are breathing a sigh of relief

 

Edit: Oh, and the fact no storms are coming to my house is the fault of mother nature and her unpredictability not the Met Office or any other forecaster. I cannot believe some people believe the weather forecasters "lie"!!! Why would they lie? Remember some forecasts, especially on the website, are replays of forecasts probably released hours before.

Edited August 13, 2015 by Supacell

[Gordon Webb]

It would need to be a lot warmer to trigger thunderstorms, it is only around 20-21c at best in the area where these showers are developing. However, nothing has gone to plan today so who is to say that the trigger temperatures are completely out too. In all honesty though I do not expect surface based storms to develop now, it really hasn't gotten warm enough.

 

Overnight the storms would be elevated and so will ride the plume and thus not be affected by surface conditions. However, it would seem any thundery activity will be at a premium away from the SE corner and East Anglia. For a storm lover like me it is all a bit of a disappointment. I imagine you are breathing a sigh of relief

 

 

 

at the moment yes even the showers that are to my SE look destined to avoid me so all good so far I'll just see how it goes

Edited August 13, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Azazel]

I think a more accurate way to predict these events in future would be to take whatever the models show and shunt it 200 miles East with a thin line all the way up to Lincoln just incase.

[Darren Bown]

I've seen better storms up north, back home, than I have today in Berkshire

*hides*

Edited August 13, 2015 by Darren Bown

[SnowBear]

The key word in all this was "uncertainty", no one was absolutely sure what would happen, all best guesses.

It's how it goes sometimes and the wonder of British weather!

Edited August 13, 2015 by SnowBear

[Supacell]

I've seen better storm up north back home than I have today in Berkshire

*hides*

 

Well to be fair the best storm I have seen all year was near your home town, that being on the 1st July. 

 

Developments now between Le Mans and Caen may provide some southern areas with interest although they are not producing sferics as yet. Storms now touching the east coast of Kent too. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hmmm. That lot over Benelux making a turn to the left somewhat? The same thing happened last year on July 19th and clobbered East Anglia..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Oi downers at least nowhere else in the world doges 200 pm strike rate stroms better than the UK

That's a medal!

Come on u turn storms!

[Ellozee]

Could say that.. getting flashed, drenched and rumbled by the western edge of it!

[Supacell]

Hmmm. That lot over Benelux making a turn to the left somewhat? The same thing happened last year on July 19th and clobbered East Anglia..

 

More storms now firing to the west of this band too