Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

[A.J]

oh for a 50-100 mile shift further west and I'd be very happy

[Harry]

I can confirm it is VERY warm here on the E Kent coast. Sun has been in and out all day, nice humid breeze.

Estofex recently issued an MD covering the level 1 area previously issued, so not including any UK area, except Channel Isles.

I'm dubious as to exactly what the coverage might be - my instinct tells me the MetO may be overplaying it slightly, but hope I am wrong naturally

[Methuselah]

oh for a 50-100 mile shift further west and I'd be very happy

Same distance northwards would help, too.

[A.J]

Same distance northwards would help, too.

yep, we're under the front near the southern flank at the moment experiencing intermittent light rain....quit warm and humid but overcast skies with hints of brighter weather to my far south

[UKSupercell]

The strike rate from last night's storms in France/Belgium/Netherlands was phenomenal. Look at this! 

 

 

[Methuselah]

 

The strike rate from last night's storms in France/Belgium/Netherlands was phenomenal. Look at this! 

 

If only we could blow it up here, MKS!

Edited August 30, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Harry]

Sun been out for a while here now, now fairly oppressive heat and humidity despite the breeze

[Nick F]

This looks to take much of the day in the far east and south east. Maybe a lot of "weather" to get through before the bank holiday is finished for these parts?

 

Thanks for your in depth analysis, pretty much agree with all of it and certainly alot of 'weather' to get through before the close of play for this BH weekend.

 

Tonight/early Mon is looking increasingly interesting from a severe weather point of view, not least because the models appear to be playing 'catch-up' with reality with what is a highly complex evolving situation over the next 24 hrs.

 

We have a long-wave upper trough trying to push in from the west off the Atlantic, as can be seen on 500mb charts, however, it is coming up against a stubborn blocking anticyclone over central/eastern Europe. On the forward side of the slow-moving upper trough we have a waving frontal zone stretching from a low west of Portugal NE across S England and E Anglia then NE to Denmark then Poland. Some waves are developing along this front to the SW of the UK - which will serve to pep up rainfall later further NE across SW England, Wales and eventually parts of central England.

 

 

Further SE, a shortwave trough (visible on WV imagery below) ejecting N/NE from N Spain this afternoon has engaged and is destabilising a plume of high theta-w air (16C+) and Eleavted Mixed Layer spreading north from the Spanish high Plateau across western France and Bay of Biscay - with increasing storm activity here.

 

 

 

500mb SWly flow would take these storms, perhaps an MCS, NE towards central S and SE England and eventually E Anglia overnight, something some models, such as GFS, hasn't really picked up well, probably because the shortwave is further west than the model has indicated.

 

Low-level wx charts suggest trough moving NE from NW France towards IoW later:

 

 

GFS showing 50-60 knts of deep layer shear and strong upper winds, so severe weather possible from any storms - given energy avaliable from destabilisation of plume, even if they are elevated - i.e. strong wind gusts, large hail and large rainfall totals in a short space of time leading to flooding.

 

As ever though, this is a dynamic situation, which models seem not ot have a full grip on in next 24 hrs, so down to nowcasting really!

 

Oh, and this from BBC forecast earlier, lol ...

 

Edited August 30, 2015 by Nick F

[Costa Del Fal]

Is there a small risk even some lightning could be seen here to our East tonight?

[Supacell]

If I was living in that SE corner I would be getting quite excited now. It looks like a fun night could be on the cards. Interesting that this storm risk could be a little more widespread than first thought (still subject to further changes). I would expect anywhere from the capital southeast to be in with a risk of some impressive storms.

 

For here in the Midlands it looks like just plain rain, although it is heavy rain with some large rainfall totals being shown on some models during the next 24 hours. Euro4 shows rainfall totals across Derby touching on 2 inches which is not really what you want on a Bank holiday. Higher totals are shown across Kent which may give rise to localised flooding.

[Harry]

Fab, cheers Nick as ever

Been been very keen on t'storms for later and are continuing the liberal smattering of lightning symbols.

Another swathe of mid level stratiform cloud spilling in from the SW here in Dymchurch, tempering temperatures slightly but is really nice and warm (and humid) nevertheless.

Keeping my fingers crossed for some storms later - the one thing I've been hankering for is a classic storm with loud, peeling thunder. I'm not too fussed about severe/disco lightning - just nice heavy rain, flash, loud peel....that'll settle my lust for 2015

Storms last night were really nice to watch, with occasional deep roars rolling off the channel as I was dosing off! Magic!

Good luck all - let's hope Mother Nature throws some fun or way...based on the conditions here currently, I would say we are ticking the necessary boxes (bar any obvious AcCas or similar)

If I was living in that SE corner I would be getting quite excited now. It looks like a fun night could be on the cards. Interesting that this storm risk could be a little more widespread than first thought (still subject to further changes). I would expect anywhere from the capital southeast to be in with a risk of some impressive storms.

 

For here in the Midlands it looks like just plain rain, although it is heavy rain with some large rainfall totals being shown on some models during the next 24 hours. Euro4 shows rainfall totals across Derby touching on 2 inches which is not really what you want on a Bank holiday. Higher totals are shown across Kent which may give rise to localised flooding.

I can assure, if there is and subject to maintaining the rare 3G, I will keep you all updated

[Methuselah]

Fab, cheers Nick as ever

Been been very keen on t'storms for later and are continuing the liberal smattering of lightning symbols.

Another swathe of mid level stratiform cloud spilling in from the SW here in Dymchurch, tempering temperatures slightly but is really nice and warm (and humid) nevertheless.

Keeping my fingers crossed for some storms later - the one thing I've been hankering for is a classic storm with loud, peeling thunder. I'm not too fussed about severe/disco lightning - just nice heavy rain, flash, loud peel....that'll settle my lust for 2015

Storms last night were really nice to watch, with occasional deep roars rolling off the channel as I was dosing off! Magic!

Good luck all - let's hope Mother Nature throws some fun or way...based on the conditions here currently, I would say we are ticking the necessary boxes (bar any obvious AcCas or similar)

I can assure, if there is and subject to maintaining the rare 3G, I will keep you all updated

You know what they say about those 'legal highs', Harry! Good luck for tonight!

[Stormyking]

An interesting line of cells have developed in the channel down the channel Islands, these seem of developed rapidly, the ones to the north of Alderney looks almost ready to go, but have a feeling atm there is a cap which may prevent these from developing further for now, but i maybe wrong

[10 Days Away]

Fab, cheers Nick as ever

Been been very keen on t'storms for later and are continuing the liberal smattering of lightning symbols.

Another swathe of mid level stratiform cloud spilling in from the SW here in Dymchurch, tempering temperatures slightly but is really nice and warm (and humid) nevertheless.

Keeping my fingers crossed for some storms later - the one thing I've been hankering for is a classic storm with loud, peeling thunder. I'm not too fussed about severe/disco lightning - just nice heavy rain, flash, loud peel....that'll settle my lust for 2015

Storms last night were really nice to watch, with occasional deep roars rolling off the channel as I was dosing off! Magic!

Good luck all - let's hope Mother Nature throws some fun or way...based on the conditions here currently, I would say we are ticking the necessary boxes (bar any obvious AcCas or similar)

I can assure, if there is and subject to maintaining the rare 3G, I will keep you all updated

 

Bottle of wine and Sunday dinner before a walk to sea wall... looking good for sure

[Harry]

You know what they say about those 'legal highs', Harry! Good luck for tonight!

Looool

May have had a couple of Cuba libres to get in the Caribbean holiday spirit

I'm a few sheets to the wind now - so any temperature/humidity commentaries I give maybe deduct a smidgen for the true feel.

Edited August 30, 2015 by Harry

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bloody humid feel here to, so things are going in the slightly more favourable side thus far..

Ha! That's a first all summer...

[Methuselah]

Looool

May have had a couple of Cuba libres to get in the Caribbean holiday spirit

I'm a few sheets to the wind now - so any temperature/humidity commentaries I give maybe deduct a smidgen for the true feel.

lol Harry. I'm several sheets, myself! I'm also bang-on the nothing-everything boundary!

[10 Days Away]

Just glad the holidaymakers in Dymchurch have had a couple of decent days weather. I really felt sorry for the kids midweek ! Bless 'em!

[Rain123]

Do you think New Milton has a chance tonight?

[Winter Cold]

Even up here its been 21c and feels very humid and warm. I would think even those of us in the rain tonight further north might hear a few rumbles embedded.  Good luck to the SE tonight, youve really been spoilt this year, im sure this is your 10th or so storm day so far!

[Condor Vitesse]

Well you lot down south Enjoy the storms. I will just watch the mad people riding that funfair ride on the Bognor Regis webcam..http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

[Hodgheg]

Just been out and I've gotta say its feeling very stormy. 

[Buckster]

Any idea on expected timing for uk please ?

 

On a flight home from Barcelona to Southend later to land at Southend about 10.30pm

 

Hoping that will be before ad wouldn't like to cross through a Meso !

[tomp456]

It's blobbin'

[Cableguy]

Do you think New Milton has a chance tonight?

 

In my opinion nobody except those in the Extreme SE have much chance tonight.

Bloody humid feel here to, so things are going in the slightly more favourable side thus far..

Ha! That's a first all summer...

 

Dont understand this post, just because its feeling humid(which it is) doesnt increase the storm risk?