Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[carinthian]

Horrible, horrible weather for NW Europe, especially this weekend over most of the British Isles with full sludge pump charts . Day after day of sunshine over here sat under Euro High, driving me mad, but I suppose 13c as is currently here at 1650m asl better than what is in store for you guys this weekend !

C

[Hocus Pocus]

Does anyone else think the NH profile has a distinctly November 1978 look about it.

[marksiwnc]

Yes, there's increasing room for faith now in this change later Nov. Interesting times indeed.

Omg Ian you have just opened the doors to hell hahahhahaha.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

first crazy ECM FI of the season, although the south dosen't see it that cold, -5 uppers will not deliver here, blame time of year,

 

but just what model shows, will turn out nothing like that

[Methuselah]

Does anyone else think the NH profile has a distinctly November 1978 look about it.

I wish I knew, HP; but, didn't that particular pattern-change also occur around the 21st November? Nevertheless, I do think we'd be better containing our excitement (it's difficult, I know!  ) until things at least get into the reliable?? 

[london and south east kent]

Hi I love the cold and snow but I'm not getting my hopes up until the uk meto come onboard â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

[Ali1977]

This place may start to get busier over the next day or so if this still shows tomorrow - Where's knocker and his daffs?

[Hocus Pocus]

I wish I knew, HP; but, didn't that particular pattern-change also occur around the 21st November? Nevertheless, I do think we'd be better containing our excitement (it's difficult, I know!  ) until things at least get into the reliable?? 

Oh I won't be getting carried away as we've all seen just what can happen when it goes mammaries up.

[mishy]

Every year I enjoy watching the model thread to see if there's a proper winter coming and this year is no different. But I'm off to Thailand for a couple of weeks on the 26th of this month and  just a little concerened that we may get some snow and my flight gets cancelled or something

[summer blizzard]

I'm calling a level 3 ramp alert on this one. 

 

Mentions of prior cold winters and speculation about what if we saw the Greenland and Scandi High's join in addition to longevity. 

[Snowy L]

Looks like it's GFS vs ECM again. GFS has won pretty much every time these last 2 winters, not getting my hopes up.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Looks like it's GFS vs ECM again. GFS has won pretty much every time these last 2 winters, not getting my hopes up.

 

What I was thinking, I don't rate ECM FI, gets the forum more interesting though, so not a bad thing

[Cheshire Freeze]

What I was thinking, I don't rate ECM FI, gets the forum more interesting though, so not a bad thing

 

Sad thing is ECM always used to be king. A difference at day 5 between it and GFS would used to mostly always end with an ECM victory.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

must be since GFS upgrade,

 

where is TEITS and chionomaniac?

[tinybill]

if  the models  are  right  there a good chance the express  could  be saying     britain will come  to a stand still  or worse!!! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

if  the models  are  right  there a good chance the express  could  be saying     britain will come  to a stand still  or worse!!! 

 

even if they are not, dread them saying something like 'ice age on the way' just after an ECM FI

[garbagebags]

even if they are not, dread them saying something like 'ice age on the way' just after an ECM FI

"Arctic Blast"

"deep freeze"

"Colder than the Antarctic"

 

[markw2680]

"Arctic Blast"

"deep freeze"

"Colder than the Antarctic"

Britain braced for weeks of freezing weather with 24 hours of heavy snow

[Costa Del Fal]

ECM has led us up the garden path the last 2 Novembers I believe. I shall wait and hold back thanks. Some getting a bit too ahead of themselves again.

[Guest]

Hi I love the cold and snow but I'm not getting my hopes up until the uk meto come onboard â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

Metoffice has updated their weather for the week ahead forecast, first possible significant cold snap at the end of the week due to a buckle in the jet stream.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM has led us up the garden path the last 2 Novembers I believe. I shall wait and hold back thanks. Some getting a bit too ahead of themselves again.

 

can only agree with that really, I usually think in winter GFS is the best model, think after 12Z's, on 00Z may be fair to say it's trended towards GFS

[snowblizzard]

_{Much more exciting model watching now compared with a few days ago!}

_{Surely though, it's a little to early for UK to benefit in terms of real wintry weather from this type of set-up?}

_{I'd love to see some of the charts showing 1st/2nd week of January!}

Edited November 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To resize font.

[Liam J]

Metoffice has updated their weather for the week ahead forecast, first possible significant cold snap at the end of the week due to a buckle in the jet stream.

Where does it say this? This is the latest on the Met Office website, updated @ 1:31 Sat 14th

 

 

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Nov 2015 to Friday 27 Nov 2015:

Remaining changeable and often windy across all parts, with further bands of rain crossing the UK from the west or southwest. The heaviest of this rainfall is expected in the west, where there could be some localised flooding as well as a risk of gales. Bands of rain will be separated by brighter, cooler, showery conditions. Showers could be heavy at times and bring some sleet or snow to higher ground in the north. Overnight frost is likely in sheltered areas during these cooler interludes, particularly towards the end of the period. There will be large day to day variations in the temperature, with milder, wetter spells interspersed with colder, showery spells, although overall it should average out at near or slightly above normal for the time of year.

[johnholmes]

Where does it say this? This is the latest on the Met Office website, updated @ 1:31 Sat 14th

 

yes the updated 0130 issue has no wording such as greenland suggests.

Time again will tell whether the supposed quote is correct or made up!

[Costa Del Fal]

yes the updated 0130 issue has no wording such as greenland suggests.

Time again will tell whether the supposed quote is correct or made up!

I think he may have been referring to the BBC week ahead forecast which was on after children in need about 2am which did show the jet buckling and mention of the first possible cold spell.