Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[mountain shadow]

Looking at the mid term picture, if the the vortex disruption continues to be shown, we will be looking at some epic FI's soon. I wonder if the Meto seasonals might change to increase the chance of an earlier colder spell soon.

 

Would love to get a White Christmas.

[solarcycle]

Zomg o noe there isnt gonna be 6 foot of teh snow in Lundon in November. Winter is over!!!1 

 

Been wanting to do that for a while. In the meantime, back in reality, good riddance to unseasonably mild muck.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looking at the mid term picture, if the the vortex disruption continues to be shown, we will be looking at some epic FI's soon. I wonder if the Meto seasonals might change to increase the chance of an earlier colder spell soon.

 

Would love to get a White Christmas.

See what odds you get........you have a decent chance IMO.  2 week Cold spell around start of 3 rd week of Dec

 

BFTP 

[cheshire snow]

Well the 18z is almost a snow event for all the UK Sat/Sun all be different tomorrow but nice to see the GFS has been to

the pub and got totally pi££ed

 

C.S  

[garbagebags]

Everyone seems to be ramping I guess I am the only one "moaning". All I can see is a brief, nay... exceptionally brief cold shot that yes will bring snow but it will never lie on the sopping and "warm" ground. I say expect a nasty wind chill, lots of driving sleet some falling snow and a bit of mushy slush underfoot. Pah. 

[AWD]

Everyone seems to be ramping I guess I am the only one "moaning". All I can see is a brief, nay... exceptionally brief cold shot that yes will bring snow but it will never lie on the sopping and "warm" ground. I say expect a nasty wind chill, lots of driving sleet some falling snow and a bit of mushy slush underfoot. Pah.

Probably because it's only mid November still.

[garbagebags]

Probably because it's only mid November still.

To be fair I had 4 feet of snow to low levels in Nov 2010.

[throwoff]

Well the 06 has done it's usual ramp for snow in Kent!

[phil nw.]

Good to see more seasonal weather on the way.Some real cold air coming south briefly with some places seeing snowfall.

For more prolonged cold we need to see the Atlantic heights just a little further north west.

At the moment we are seeing a glancing Arctic surge before the high moves in towards the UK.

A colder trend overall though with a possible repeat as another low moves  down from Iceland.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Phil, -11 850's showing to touch Scotland on the 6z.

[jgbgt]

Yey, here comes the IMBY gripe; possible Channel low and down in the SE, we will be taking sleet at best. May be taking a drive north on Sat.

You guys north of London will owe us big if that plays out as it look it might.

Anyways focus on the good stuff in the now (hopefully) reliable in regards to some low temps. Be nice to have a frost and some "fresh" air.

Disappointed the models keep bouncing the SE between lucking in and being washed out.

[Eskimo]

Mods will lift an shift this but the Siberian high will see the Siberian Swan arrive causing a colder Winter than 62/63

http://travel.aol.co.uk/2015/10/13/uk-weather-longest-winter-50-years-siberian-swan-arrives-early/

AOL do their news like they do their internet service providing. Awful. 

[mushymanrob]

looking like the outlook remains unsettled, but cooler then of late. the 500mb anomaly charts suggest an upper flow north of west. so cool unsettled as opposed to mild unsettled.

[MPG]

Very quiet on the netweather MO discussion threads this winter. Very strange seeing we have a decent cold snap coming up and FI charts with all sorts of very interesting options.

 

Where is everyone?

Edited November 18, 2015 by MPG

[Paul]

Very quiet??

 

There were over 100 posts in the model thread alone yesterday, plus with other events happening people tend to post into those threads - eg the storm barney thread had a couple of hundred posts or so. 

[Liam J]

looking like the outlook remains unsettled, but cooler then of late. the 500mb anomaly charts suggest an upper flow north of west. so cool unsettled as opposed to mild unsettled.

Indeed, very unsettled runs this morning, ECM winds up a significant windstorm by 216, probably won't happen like that though... No return of the mild weather of late but cool and unsettled with a risk of further impactful weather. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Very quiet on the netweather MO discussion threads this winter. Very strange seeing we have a decent cold snap coming up and FI charts with all sorts of very interesting options.

 

Where is everyone?

 

Probably because the cold snap isn't showing a countrywide snow event, it does look cold for the time of year with northern and coastal areas seeing snow at times and there's still the possibility of some surprises cropping up. But and the end of the day people want snow and the majority of members are probably seeing it being a mainly cold frosty spell with a chance of snow.

[snowblizzard]

Surely far too early to expect a countrywide snow event - it's only 18th November!

Even when we're in deepest darkest winter we rarely experience such an event.

When we do, it's only likely to last a few days before the Atlantic re-imposes it's influence.

I can only remember a couple of winters where we've been locked into a severe cold pattern for any length of time - definitely '62/63' & '78/79' to a much lesser extent.

I don't believe that we will see the likes of those winters again in our lifetime.

Yes, we will almost certainly see very cold & snowy spells lasting up to 5-10 days but it's extremely unlikely we'll see anything much longer than that. 

Why do I think that? Well, just look at the archives and the history of British winter weather - cold winters are so rare in UK.

But, it's great fun model watching and hoping that something really spectacular might just develop!

Edited November 18, 2015 by snowblizzard

[snowray]

Best snow around here that I remember was late November, 2010 I think it was, anyway hefty snow showers on streamers for a couple of days coming in on an easterly and exceptionally cold temps, ended up with about 6 inches of the white stuff. Didn't think you could get such a cold easterly in November, anyway our snow windows here are so small that you have to grab them when you can, April tends to produce snow events, worse month has been January, useless in recent times.

[markyo]

Really looking forward to the up coming cold snap,great weather for getting out in!!

[MP-R]

Best snow around here that I remember was late November, 2010 I think it was, anyway hefty snow showers on streamers for a couple of days coming in on an easterly and exceptionally cold temps, ended up with about 6 inches of the white stuff. Didn't think you could get such a cold easterly in November, anyway our snow windows here are so small that you have to grab them when you can, April tends to produce snow events, worse month has been January, useless in recent times.

 

Interesting you should say that. I think February has been the most useless month considering its reputation, for my location at least. Only February 2009 has brought proper lasting snow in recent years; it seems the month is often cold but also dry. I guess in your location you had longer lasting snow in 2012? December, despite being the most unsettled winter month has at least brought snowfall and January has been quite the mixed bag, with a number of good falls in January 2010 and 2013.

[Polar Maritime]

As Thunderbolt politely put above, Can we please leave general winter chat to the relevant thread. And continue discussion loosely based around the Models.

 

Thanks 

[Deep Snow please]

​

Reload - Reload - Reload, do you see that deep cold pushing in from the north. Has to be a Nov 2010 event.

[snowray]

Well looking at todays GFS 06z we seem to have developed the ever popular wishbone effect, heavy snow showers both on the East Coast and more particularly in the West where there could be more organised bands of snow for Scoland, NW, Wales and SW England. Eastern coastal areas will also have snow showers, heavy at times after an initial band of PPN comes through in the East of the UK in the early hours of Saturday. Temps look on the right side of marginal particularly where there are heavy showers, on Fri night, Sat day and into Sunday morning.

 

The form horse is to shift everything East with this sort of pattern, this has been the case on this occasion but we maintain a decent window none the less for most of the UK of about 36 hours.

 

After this there are some early signs of PV disruption and some excitement in the strat warming thread so all eyes on a more blocked December. With HP being shifted back to mid Atlantic we may also see more Northerly incursions as we go into December with rather colder temperatures that average.

 

Snowray

(Mr PR, Agreed about February, same here)

[Deep Snow please]

What do people think the chances of a Greenland high are this winter, I can't see one forming in the models yet to be honest.