Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[radiohead]

I'm getting that familiar feeling that this potential cold spell will transition to a cold snap as each successive run pushes the high pressure further eastward more quickly until we end up with a 6 hour blast of cold uppers before the rain comes back in

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

There's also talk of a channel low!!? In the model output thread. November and Channel Low seems a bit odd to me. Or have I imagined I read it

[Polar Maritime]

There's also talk of a channel low!!? In the model output thread. November and Channel Low seems a bit odd to me. Or have I imagined I read it

 

Nope it's still there on the 6z run for the 20th. I would't call it odd, But it's certainly not a regular feature.

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

I guess I'm used to hearing about Channel Lows in mid winter.. What sort of temperatures would you expect? As the 6z has the south in shades o yellow/green. Great model watching compared to last year when nothing really got into the reliable time frame.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not a channel low though on 6Z, Boxing day last year was good, low needs to be further south, or it's snow for Scotland only

[Polar Maritime]

I guess I'm used to hearing about Channel Lows in mid winter.. What sort of temperatures would you expect? As the 6z has the south in shades o yellow/green. Great model watching compared to last year when nothing really got into the reliable time frame.

 

Temps will certainly feel much cooler if not cold, And maybe even cold enough for some snow in the S/E.

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

I thought it looked to far NE for it to bring snow down here!

[NorthYorksWeather]

I thought it looked to far NE for it to bring snow down here!

 

Where are you? Location in your avatar would help. Thanks

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Isle of Wight - clue is in the user name

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Isle of Wight - clue is in the user name

Still. put your location up STD, it does help in here

 

regards

 

BFTP

[knocker]

Good to see that the minor infestation in the woodshed will be eradicated tout suite. The consensus is removal of the pesky NE Canada HP and build same mid Atlantic/east Atlantic returning the temps to normal or slightly above. Should put the final gloss on the dafs after a cool nip to freshen them up.

Edited November 14, 2015 by knocker

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Good idea thanks BFTP

Regards

[knocker]

Quote from MV

 

Looking into early December, holy +NAO/+AO/+EPO. Supports extremely warm start to December o/ N. America and Europe.

 

[cyclonic happiness]

Still. put your location up STD, it does help in here

 

regards

 

BFTP

 

"STD"?  *guffaws*  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Those anomaly charts must be hinting at N/S split and record warmth....nice to have you back Knocker.....

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 14, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[mushymanrob]

goodbye nice mild weather, its looking like a blast of something cold is going to hit us next weekend along with it sanity in the md thread! lol

[March Blizzard]

goodbye nice mild weather, its looking like a blast of something cold is going to hit us next weekend along with it sanity in the md thread! lol

Come on Mushy, it's been mild, but the weather has hardly been "nice", has it? I don't know about your location, but mine has seen copious amounts of rain and very little sunshine. All in all very miserable.

Whilst some looking for cold may associate anything mild with poor conditions (which obviously isn't always true) the inverse is often seen from those looking for mild when talking about the cold.

You, like me, work outdoors, right? Surely you'd occasionally take a cool/cold dry spell over a mild and wet one? I would every time, but my preferences are obviously different.

Anyway, some kind of change is looking more certain, with potentially much colder conditions from the weekend onwards. To what extent and how long it lasts is up for debate.

Truth be told, I'd take anything drier with a bit of sunshine.

[cheese]

I think the last three weeks have been near-perfect, if you ask me. 19C and sunshine on the first of the month, many days above 15C, some Atlantic gales etc. Of course you're entitled to your opinion, but some of us just think that there is somethinf quite nice about mild weather at this ime of the year. I personally think there is something quite magical about a 15-16C day in the sun-starved months, stormy skies rushing overhead and the odd spot of rain.

So you keep saying - but don't be surprised to find yourself in the minority. We've already exceeded our monthly average rainfall with 15 days to go - with a grand total of 10 hours of sun when we should have around 35 for the first half of November.

 

It's a complete and total disaster of a month by all accounts. A slight saving on energy bills is the only positive aspect, somewhat mitigated by the near total lack of sun and abundance of rain.

 

Some cool, crisp sunshine will be much welcomed after what has been an extremely dull period of weather.

Edited November 15, 2015 by cheese

[cornish snow]

 I personally think there is something quite magical about a 15-16C day in the sun-starved months, stormy skies rushing overhead and the odd spot of rain.

Try working in it

[Polar Maritime]

Lets try and cut the sarcastic remarks, And just except we all enjoy different weather types. It's nothing new, And nobody has anything to prove as the weather will do what it wants at the end of the day.

 

So lets get back to respectfully ramping/moaning based around the models please. Cheers.

Edited November 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Hocus Pocus]

Lets try and cut the sarcastic remarks, And just except we all enjoy different weather types. It's nothing new, And nobody has anything to prove as the weather will do what it wants at the end of the day.

 

So lets get back to respectfully ramping/moaning based around the models please. Cheers.

Mine was in jest PM, life's too short to get wound up over the weather and peoples preferences.

[Polar Maritime]

Mine was in jest PM, life's too short to get wound up over the weather and peoples preferences.

 

Lets leave it there then, And move on. Remembering jest may upset folk, And vise-vera. It's a fine line to draw...

Edited November 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[AWD]

Cold north winds entering Scotland by T120

Cold north winds leaving Scotland by T180;

[johnholmes]

Cold north winds leaving Scotland by T180;

gfsnh-1-180.png

 

 

at 850mb, the surface values will be more relevant I would think for at least 1-3 days due to a surface high?

Might be wrong. It probably will mean the end of wintry showers though.

[johnholmes]

Lets try and cut the sarcastic remarks, And just except we all enjoy different weather types. It's nothing new, And nobody has anything to prove as the weather will do what it wants at the end of the day.

 

So lets get back to respectfully ramping/moaning based around the models please. Cheers.

 

I've been on this site for 10 years or so. Yet I am still surprised by the amount of personal digs at folk. Heavens above we all came on here, I think, to start with because we love talking about the weather. It would be a deadly dull world if we all liked or disliked exactly the same things, weather or anything else. It IS going to get colder, by next weekend, some folk will see snow falling, some lucky ones (assuming you want this) will see snow lying. How long it will last is not yet clear. So why not enjoy and respect each other for not having the same views?