Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Daniel*]

Meaning no major blocking. That for me is a real nice update from Fergie whom, to re-iterate, has NOT written winter off.

BFTP

Only a mad man would.

With the NAO trending to take a big dip compared to of recent - perhaps it will not be a state of low heights dominating to the north.

Hmmm....Definitely leeway for colder conditions IMO albeit shortlived as one can see currently.

Edited November 11, 2015 by Daniel*

[Mair Snaw]

Indeed - just wondering what "bigsnow" had in mind - his 'short' might not be the same as mine.

i was thinking 48-72... but maybe 24-48 is more realistic...

[stewfox]

This guy has popped up before , to my untrained eye that's a Ramp ?

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Bigsnow, latter part wasn't in response to you mate, sorry

 

BFTP

[Mair Snaw]

Bigsnow, latter part wasn't in response to you mate, sorry

 

BFTP

ok mate... thank you for the reply.

 

Bigsnow.

[cornish snow]

Great news, Steve Murr is out of hibernation,must be an ice age coming        

[Liam J]

Great news, Steve Murr is out of hibernation,must be an ice age coming        

Haven't you been around for a while? Not the first time he's posted this season 

Edited November 12, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[joggs]

Hope he's a permanent fixture from now on.All that's missing it teits

[Gael_Force]

This guy has popped up before , to my untrained eye that's a Ramp ?

Hmm.....according to many, he's already visited and winter was his victim.

[cornish snow]

Haven't you been around for a while? Not the first time he's posted this season 

Sorry,must have missed that. Just got a bit over exited,nothing like seeing Steve on here to lift one's spirits.

[Polar Maritime]

Maybe we could once again try and use this thread for 'Model' banter/moans/ramps, And not 'members' ramps..

 

Cheers, PM.

[A.J]

don't know what folk are worrying about..........it's Captain CFS to the rescue with two utterly cherry picked channel lows for your snowgasmic delight.....bring on the blizzards! 

 

 

Edited November 12, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[cheshire snow]

Quite interesting looking through the models at the moment,

The cooler and more interesting charts seem to be departing

FI and starting to appear in the Semi reliable time frame.

ok no 2010 on the cards,but looking at the models the higher

ground of the UK will more than likely see snow.

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

first crazy FI of the season, 320+ on GFS 18Z, no PV/ purple colours around greenie, no way will happen

[Liam J]

OK, so some eye candy charts out in FI, but that's where they seem to have remained for days now and they keep getting pushed back and remain in FI at day 10+... Maybe I'm missing something but I would like to see such charts coming out of the depths of FI.... Until then my hopes remain very much on the low side. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The change is afoot, its happening I have no doubt.  Good to see GFS nailing it.......

 

 

BFTP

[Mark Neal.]

The change is afoot, its happening I have no doubt.  Good to see GFS nailing it.......

 

 

BFTP

Nailed on the. Now

Very interesting though!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I do think that next week is looking good though, and severe weather warnings as I put out several days ago will come thick and fast imo 

 

BFTP

[Mark Neal.]

I do think that next week is looking good though, and severe weather warnings as I put out several days ago will come thick and fast imo

BFTP

Wilder and Wintry at times? Increasingly more wintery especially Scotland and then with elevation in Northern parts as week goes on! Edited November 12, 2015 by Mark N

[Costa Del Fal]

The change is afoot, its happening I have no doubt.  Good to see GFS nailing it.......

 

 

BFTP

Nailing it? It's far from happened yet.

[seaside 60]

The change is afoot, its happening I have no doubt.  Good to see GFS nailing it.......

 

 

BFTP

Said with a very big sarky smile, please note for those who dont understand, lol...

That was the whole point of quoting that chart by him.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Said with a very big sarky smile, please note for those who dont understand, lol...

That was the whole point of quoting that chart by him.

Aye, thank you S 60

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wilder and Wintry at times? Increasingly more wintery especially Scotland and then with elevation in Northern parts as week goes on!

Indeed Mark.  Also as I've said weather warnings aplenty and I have a particular period of note I have mentioned for 20-24 which impact all UK and not mainly north like Abigail.

 

BFTP

[Hocus Pocus]

I don't know where I should post this but I felt here was more appropriate, if not please remove mods.

A great post in the MOD thread last night by Lorenzo and explains well the dynamics involved going forward this winter. What catches my eye is how the strat doesn't seem to be playing ball with what one would expect given the state of play, are we seeing other background signals coming into play and over riding the very strong Nino pattern.

I really think all bets are off for any given pattern for the start of this winter regardless of the EC and GLOSEA5 seasonal predictions, for me something is upsetting the apple cart and that something is something that's not been accounted for by the seasonal models. Of course I could be completely wrong ( wouldn't be the first time ) and we end up with a +NAO for the first half of winter as per the proceeding models predictions, whatever the outcome it's fascinating watching how this will evolve and for mere mortals like myself you can't beat watching and learning as it all unfolds.

[Ravelin]

OK, so some eye candy charts out in FI, but that's where they seem to have remained for days now and they keep getting pushed back and remain in FI at day 10+... Maybe I'm missing something but I would like to see such charts coming out of the depths of FI.... Until then my hopes remain very much on the low side. 

 

I'm not saying the eye candy charts will materialise, that's always a long shot for the UK.

 

For purely selfish reasons though i.e. we have a ski holiday booked for end Dec, I've been keeping a close eye on the precipitation forecasts across the Alps, mainly western Austria. For quite a few days now it's been showing virtually no precipitation before the 19th Nov, thereafter becoming a fairly regular occurrence. As I said, the 19th turning point has been a consistent theme for a few days, so that at least seems to be slowly moving into the reliable timeframe. If that is correct and we see the demise of the Euro high, then maybe some of the more interesting charts of late might just materialise.