Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well, it's too early for snow...so enjoy the warmth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34728270

 

That's what I think at the moment, keep it mild now, enjoying warmth for now

[Methuselah]

where you going Ed ..

My bed!

That's what I think at the moment, keep it mild now, enjoying warmth for now

Absolutely. What's the use of driving sleet?

[BlueHedgehog074]

My bed!

Same here.

And I hope when I wake up in morning this thread will be back on-topic.

[DAVID SNOW]

My bed!

Absolutely. What's the use of driving sleet?

 

Easy does it us oldies, take your time Pete  

[Mokidugway]

I'm off to bed to do some model watching ....:O....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm off to bed to do some model watching ....:O....

 

sky 912!!!!!!!!

[cheese]

That's what I think at the moment, keep it mild now, enjoying warmth for now

What warmth? Am I missing something here?

[simshady]

Love this forum, but why is it at this time of year that a model run shows mild outlook some members on here are posting saying this will happen and no chance of any other weather type happening.... but as soon as any model run shows anything cold certain members are like oh its FI never gonna happen... it cant be cause one model says so... yet if its a mild out look one model saying so is enough?? im pretty sure the whole reason the model runs go out to the time they do is so that trends and pattern changes can be spotted before they arrive...it really gets my jaffa cakes boiling when this happens....

 

You never know...there may be something lurking in the woodshed

[Mair Snaw]

You never know...there may be something lurking in the woodshed

you said it.....lol

[stainesbloke]

Don't really get the obsession with cold and snow, personally, but charts are offering something a little more seasonal in the next few weeks. Wouldn't mind a frost or two so I could pull up a few of my parsnips Though it looks more wet and stormy than cold.

[mushymanrob]

Love this forum, but why is it at this time of year that a model run shows mild outlook some members on here are posting saying this will happen and no chance of any other weather type happening.... but as soon as any model run shows anything cold certain members are like oh its FI never gonna happen... it cant be cause one model says so... yet if its a mild out look one model saying so is enough?? im pretty sure the whole reason the model runs go out to the time they do is so that trends and pattern changes can be spotted before they arrive...it really gets my jaffa cakes boiling when this happens....

 

well the uk's default weather setting is from the west/atlantic, so mild in fi IS more likely to become reality then cold in fi.

but serious posters dont cite one run in isolation, and use several sources to support their view, the anomaly charts more often then not are most accurate.

[carinthian]

Help, ECM latest, worst scenario. Slug pellets galore for Southern UK. Snow drought in the Alps.

 C

[Evening thunder]

The ECM just can't drop this Euro high.. It's like a dog with a bone (and may be right too   )

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Help, ECM latest, worst scenario. Slug pellets galore for Southern UK. Snow drought in the Alps.

 C

It will be a while C, but change is coming down the line but no real effect until after midmonth and thus ECM at day 10 still only brings us to 15th but signs are there of a differing set up coming in.  Having said that progress of wet and pretty windy weather affecting most of UK over next few days imo suggests that the shift is trying to start to occur as the block is getting bumped and jostled more.  I think though that folk shouldn't hope/expect for a 2010, I doubt very much that is on the cards. 

 

BFTP

[johnholmes]

The fact, assuming it is fact, that the models (synoptic ones) are showing, at times, a more unsettled/changeable set up has zilch to do with any prospect of a cold regime, from Greenland-Arctic northern Scandinavia. What might happen mid month is beyond my scope but what little I understand about longer term teleconnections does not suggest any major pattern swing by then. Of course we simply do not know with the data we can access. UK Met with their access to huge amounts from any model centre they wish to access, including their own, seem dubious, at the moment, of any marked change to deep cold out to early December. But it is fun to try and outsmart them which is why so many of us scan the models and try to look for signs of white falling from the sky at our our own location.So long as we respect one another's point of view and keep of the personal digs etc the upcoming months can be enjoyable and interesting.

Edited November 6, 2015 by johnholmes

[Polar Maritime]

Apparently Dec according to NASA is now part of Autumn and new NH Winter is Jan to March.....due to the asteroid belt causing influences in our Suns cycles

Have you a link to that please, Sounds a interesting read. Maybe best for the Winter thread.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Dear Santa, can you please come and rescue UK from this horrible wet muggy conditions brought because of the limpet euro high and bring some seasonal cheer in the form of crisp cold weather ?

Edited November 5, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[Peter H]

Dear Santa, can you please come and rescue UK from this horrible wet muggy conditions brought because of the limpet euro high and bring some seasonable cheer in the form of crisp cold weather ?

Oh for a winter like 78/79, or 81/82, please.

I hate this weather.

[mushymanrob]

realistically, this current weather is possibly exactly what we should be expecting at this time of the year, enjoy its intrinsic beauty - why not? its not as if its robbing anyone of winter which doesnt often kick in before crimbo (i treat that wretched season with the contempt it deserves) - but in saying that two of our best winters did kick in before crimbo (81/10) .

i see no point in 'hating' this weather unless its adversely effecting your life in some way ie financially of health-wise.

[cheshire snow]

Channel low alert at T312...Will get my coat LOL

 

C.S

[cornish snow]

realistically, this current weather is possibly exactly what we should be expecting at this time of the year, enjoy its intrinsic beauty - why not? its not as if its robbing anyone of winter which doesnt often kick in before crimbo (i treat that wretched season with the contempt it deserves) - but in saying that two of our best winters did kick in before crimbo (81/10) .

i see no point in 'hating' this weather unless its adversely effecting your life in some way ie financially of health-wise.

I agree that this is the sort of weather to expect at this time of year but it doesn't stop me hating it all the same.

Have had a week now of wet,miserable,totally unusable weather. Who cares that it's mild,big deal.

 

Hate this time of year,roll on winter and then roll on spring,at least there's something to look foreword to at those times.

 

As someone who suffers from SAD's(seasonal affected disorder) this kind of weather is met with absolute dread. Please,please let me see the sun.

[stainesbloke]

One thing I find rather strange is how anyone who cheers on very mild conditions/outputs in November is apparently trolling/posting to get a reaction, yet let's be honest, how many people would be cheering if we had an exceptionally cold start to May?

I'm enjoying this weather very much, and it can last for as long as it wants as far as I'm concerned. I'm sorry but there is just nothing desirable about cold and snow to me.

Agree, it's been quite seasonal with fog, rain, sun etc but very much on the warm side. Suits me fine as the older I get, the more I dislike the cold and saving on heating gets my vote. Plenty of time for all that malarkey, preferably after New Year where it belongs! Looks like we're all in for some storminess and typically autumnal weather in the next few weeks though nothing too chilly.

[MP-R]

realistically, this current weather is possibly exactly what we should be expecting at this time of the year, enjoy its intrinsic beauty - why not? its not as if its robbing anyone of winter which doesnt often kick in before crimbo (i treat that wretched season with the contempt it deserves) - but in saying that two of our best winters did kick in before crimbo (81/10) .

i see no point in 'hating' this weather unless its adversely effecting your life in some way ie financially of health-wise.

 

It's not actually mate. Temperatures of 14-18C under thick cloud with rain is pretty 'good' going for November. I'd expect these temperatures from such a setup in late September / early October. This time last November brought more traditional November weather with temperatures nearer the 8-13C mark. 

 

Fortunately, the models are hinting to the arrival of more normal November weather next week with winds from a more westerly than southerly direction. That should bring the temps down to where they should be at this time of year. There may even be some sunshine to go with it - this week has been horrendously dull. No point in southerly sourced air in November unless it can produce weather like last Sunday.

[cheese]

realistically, this current weather is possibly exactly what we should be expecting at this time of the year, enjoy its intrinsic beauty - why not? its not as if its robbing anyone of winter which doesnt often kick in before crimbo (i treat that wretched season with the contempt it deserves) - but in saying that two of our best winters did kick in before crimbo (81/10) .i see no point in 'hating' this weather unless its adversely effecting your life in some way ie financially of health-wise.

Except for you and Thunderbolt, I have genuinely never met another living soul who professes to enjoy damp, sunless weather. This recent spell of weather is what gives our climate its dreary and depressing reputation, and why 700,000 Brits call Spain home..

Seriously - I use an international weather forum and our climate is without a doubt the most unpopular around. It's quite possibly the dullest place in the world that is significantly populated. Even hot weather lovers would rather spend a winter in Boston US than Boston UK.

Nothing beautiful about it mate. You're in the minority here.

Oh; and we are on our 7th consecutive sunless day - so this weather isn't normal at all. It's not normal to go 7 days without seeing the sun.

Edited November 6, 2015 by cheese

[carinthian]

Except for you and Thunderbolt, I have genuinely never met another living soul who professes to enjoy damp, sunless weather. This recent spell of weather is what gives our climate its dreary and depressing reputation, and why 700,000 Brits call Spain home..

Seriously - I use an international weather forum and our climate is without a doubt the most unpopular around. It's quite possibly the dullest place in the world that is significantly populated. Even hot weather lovers would rather spend a winter in Boston US than Boston UK.

Nothing beautiful about it mate. You're in the minority here.

Oh; and we are on our 7th consecutive sunless day - so this weather isn't normal at all. It's not normal to go 7 days without seeing the sun.

Just looking at those hourly reading from the south coast of England. 3 days of non stop light rain drizzle and zero sun. Temps around 12c/13c all the way through. Must be dark, murky and miserable to out and about. You are right its crap weather. I know in Vancouver at this time of year you can get days on end of rain hitting the coastal range but with-in an hours drive you are in deepest snowfest wonderland.

C