Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[MPG]

Breaking news.....Is the ECM beginning to see it too??  I know some are saying lala land etc...but this is the banter thread....and actually I'm cautiously optimistic for this change to come in at the right timeframe too.....latter half and particularly last 3rd.  At least we have somehting different to look out for!!!

 

 

 

 

BFTP

No chance....Ian F has posted in the model thread, better come back 1st December.....kill joy.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No chance....Ian F has posted in the model thread, better come back 1st December.....kill joy.

And? 

Edited November 3, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MPG]

And? 

Thought my post was pretty clear Blast.

 

For all the amateur enthusiasm for a pattern change (me included), the big gun comes up to dampen it.

[Rollo]

When one gets to my age two snowless years make it difficult to remember those halcyon days of December 2010  and of course 62-63 is now a distant memory,one wonders how the country would or could cope with conditions such as they were then. Back to the present and we do look to be in for quite a long wait be fore the coldies are back in force.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thought my post was pretty clear Blast.

 

For all the amateur enthusiasm for a pattern change (me included), the big gun comes up to dampen it.

Don't worry too much, its a long way out and models can shift and nowt is written in stone and even in their week ahead forecasts it goes well wrong on occasions as it does for all hence the fun of it imo.  Having said that I don't hope for a 2010 event......even in my optimistic eyes that is not coming.  Just something more lively, cooler and colder/wintry for some.

 

BFTP 

Edited November 3, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[A.J]

Thought my post was pretty clear Blast.

For all the amateur enthusiasm for a pattern change (me included), the big gun comes up to dampen it.

We have members on this forum, who give their thoughts regularly, who have just as much knowledge, if not more, as anyone currently employed in the meteorological professional. To infer otherwise is rather condescending and disrespectful I would think Edited November 3, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[Methuselah]

IMO, there are two situations that, statistically at least, are often followed by a pattern-change: long drawn out summer-like conditions during November, and long drawn out wintry conditions in May; in both cases, the source of the unseasonableness is dwindling by the day?

 

That things now are pointing towards change (eventually) is hardly all that surprising, IMO?

[mushymanrob]

ok...i expect im in the minority here..

but i really like this quiet gloomy weather, it has a special feel about it especially if youre in the countryside.. hope theres more to come later in the season,

[MPG]

We have members on this forum, who give their thoughts regularly, who have just as much knowledge, if not more, as anyone currently employed in the meteorological professional. To infer otherwise is rather condescending and disrespectful I would think

? And do those amateur members (not employed by any professional body) have access to the models the meteorological professionals have?...no. So your point makes no sense.

 

Members here have posted charts hinting at a potential pattern change to something more seasonable. This makes a good basis for a discussion between members (the whole point of the forum). But then a professional comes along with access to other non-public charts and practically blows any discussion out the window.

[cheese]

ok...i expect im in the minority here..

but i really like this quiet gloomy weather, it has a special feel about it especially if youre in the countryside.. hope theres more to come later in the season,

I don't mind it - it feels appropriate for November - but sunshine is always preferable.

 

Of course, snow on the ground would be a huge improvement either way.

Edited November 3, 2015 by cheese

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ok...i expect im in the minority here..

but i really like this quiet gloomy weather, it has a special feel about it especially if youre in the countryside.. hope theres more to come later in the season,

I'm really enjoying it too Mushy.......surprising as it seems.

 

BFTP

[A.J]

? And do those amateur members (not employed by any professional body) have access to the models the meteorological professionals have?...no. So your point makes no sense.

 

Members here have posted charts hinting at a potential pattern change to something more seasonable. This makes a good basis for a discussion between members (the whole point of the forum). But then a professional comes along with access to other non-public charts and practically blows any discussion out the window.

No, its your rather patronising dismissal of the average member that I was referring to as I'm sure you know......anyhoos, to avoid taking the thread further off topic, please reply via pm if you want to discuss it further.....thanks

[Daniel*]

The models the MO have access to are not infallible what Fergie says is yet to be resolved there is never a definite in forecasting.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models the MO have access to are not infallible what Fergie says is yet to be resolved there is never a definite in forecasting.

Indeed not.....but it is rather a good factor for this site and us to have readily volunteered MetO thoughts/discussions from Fergie and gives us a nice edge in here.  Long may we have contributors across the spectrum of amateur/professional/alternative

 

BFTP 

 

Did I just say that...lol

[MP-R]

ok...i expect im in the minority here..

but i really like this quiet gloomy weather, it has a special feel about it especially if youre in the countryside.. hope theres more to come later in the season,

 

I quite like this weather too but not for longer than a few days, it's a little 'too' dull. I prefer it in winter when the temperature is around freezing or just below.

[cheeky_monkey]

? And do those amateur members (not employed by any professional body) have access to the models the meteorological professionals have?...no. So your point makes no sense.

 

Members here have posted charts hinting at a potential pattern change to something more seasonable. This makes a good basis for a discussion between members (the whole point of the forum). But then a professional comes along with access to other non-public charts and practically blows any discussion out the window.

lIke saying if Alan Shearer says Chelsea will win the title it will happen...doesn't mean its anymore valid than me saying it will be Man City because he is a professional...and of course weather is far more random than the PL

[Nick L]

Ok folks let's get back to model-related stuff please!

[Ravelin]

Incoming......

 

 

 

OK, depths of FI, brief and unlikely to verify...but we can but ponder on the possibility.

Edited November 3, 2015 by Ravelin

[cyclonic happiness]

i hope we never go back to the days of chasing northerly topplers.  That was so depressing at the start of the 2000s.

 

At least we have a whole different set up to the last couple of years, or will it go for the hat track of s**te winters?

[Mair Snaw]

Well we have to start somewhere and im sure a 2 day toppler is better than 0 days as 2013-2014 dished up... the gfs has been sniffing a pattern changed toward mid month for the last few runs.... is it on to something or could it be another false dawn....i guess we will find out very soon... still better model watching than a Euro high bore fest... well i think so anyway....

[stainesbloke]

ok...i expect im in the minority here..

but i really like this quiet gloomy weather, it has a special feel about it especially if youre in the countryside.. hope theres more to come later in the season,

I've really enjoyed the weather lately. Had plenty of warm sun, a bit of rain and some dense fog which lasted here for 48 hours without lifting. No raging gales and freezing winds yet, thankfully, plenty of time for all that yuckiness. The colours on the trees this year are quite stunning.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ok...i expect im in the minority here..

but i really like this quiet gloomy weather, it has a special feel about it especially if youre in the countryside.. hope theres more to come later in the season,

 

So do I, for some reason a lot on here want gales and rain, I will be quite happy for this 'gloom' to last out autumn, even winter as it will make a change from Atlantic crap

[carinthian]

Just seen the slug weather charts for the UK. Horrible, damp mild all the way. Day temps the same as night. Would drive me mad living there again. Ok , no sign of snow here as well but the sun shines day in , day out and looks seasonal despite the unusual warmth at altitude. Hope the gloom lifts for you guys come second half of the month ! Hard to see a frost, never mind a snowflake.

 C

[snowblizzard]

Although different NH set-up to the last couple of years, it's certainly not looking like Nov/Dec 2010 at the moment! 

What effects will the strong El Nino in Pacific have on our winter do you think?

[Evening thunder]

Does the UK really seem that bad from abroad as some living here make it out to be?

 

I would love to lose the Euroslug high that seems omnipresent even in longer range anomaly charts.. It's yet another dull day here, I know some have been lucky with sunshine/warmth but apart from that I don't really see how this is better than more active/mobile Atlantic weather, at least for those interested in the weather. For a start I'd get more sunshine especially in PM air.

 

It does look like something a bit more disturbed this and early next week though, even if mainly TM air still. 

Edited November 4, 2015 by Evening thunder