Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Hocus Pocus]

Just seen the slug weather charts for the UK. Horrible, damp mild all the way. Day temps the same as night. Would drive me mad living there again. Ok , no sign of snow here as well but the sun shines day in , day out and looks seasonal despite the unusual warmth at altitude. Hope the gloom lifts for you guys come second half of the month ! Hard to see a frost, never mind a snowflake.

 C

Indeed, our climate is truly awful really whatever the season, I just wish we'd emigrated to somewhere that actually has a climate when we were younger.

[NorthYorksWeather]

From a coldies perspective I'm quite happy with the charts being shown for mid November onwards, although no charts show snow IMBY it looks as if uplands in the North will see some snow and also a chance to receive my first air frost this season. Don't want to put my snow tires on too early as it wasn't until early December I had my first snow chase last year.

[mushymanrob]

Indeed, our climate is truly awful really whatever the season,

 

i cannot agree with this..

imho the uk has possibly the best climate in the world , why?, because of the variety we get. we arent stuck with roasting summers/freezing winters, the sort of two type weather patterns that so many get around the world.

i like the variety, its interesting! and IMHO every weather type has its own aesthetic charm about it.

anyway ... this quiet dull spell is set to depart and another 'typical' weather type looks set to dominate as atlantic wind and rain looks set for a period of time. the noaa anomaly charts suggest the sceuro blocking high will slip further south and the upper flow back from a southwesterly to westerly. looks pretty bog standard november weather in the outlook to me. temps returning to average from mild/warm . no sign yet of and widespread frosts (good!, whilst it might have its own aesthetic charm, its not one i appreciate!) .

i guess the 'best' weather type for the crimbo period would be a snowy one... failing that i like the misty gloom, it enhances the seasonal light decorations. so ill not be saddened or despondent to get another 'slug'

[snowblizzard]

i cannot agree with this..

imho the uk has possibly the best climate in the world , why?, because of the variety we get. we arent stuck with roasting summers/freezing winters, the sort of two type weather patterns that so many get around the world.

i like the variety, its interesting! and IMHO every weather type has its own aesthetic charm about it.

anyway ... this quiet dull spell is set to depart and another 'typical' weather type looks set to dominate as atlantic wind and rain looks set for a period of time. the noaa anomaly charts suggest the sceuro blocking high will slip further south and the upper flow back from a southwesterly to westerly. looks pretty bog standard november weather in the outlook to me. temps returning to average from mild/warm . no sign yet of and widespread frosts (good!, whilst it might have its own aesthetic charm, its not one i appreciate!) .

i guess the 'best' weather type for the crimbo period would be a snowy one... failing that i like the misty gloom, it enhances the seasonal light decorations. so ill not be saddened or despondent to get another 'slug'

We do get some significant extremes in the UK (very dry/very wet or very warm/very cold) but unlike many places at lower latitudes, we can never guarantee getting permafrost and decent snowfalls during winter! But, if that was the norm it might become boring and we wouldn't have the excitement of chasing charts that might produce such severe winter weather conditions!

Edited November 4, 2015 by snowblizzard

[cheese]

i cannot agree with this..

imho the uk has possibly the best climate in the world , why?, because of the variety we get. we arent stuck with roasting summers/freezing winters, the sort of two type weather patterns that so many get around the world.

i like the variety, its interesting! and IMHO every weather type has its own aesthetic charm about it.

anyway ... this quiet dull spell is set to depart and another 'typical' weather type looks set to dominate as atlantic wind and rain looks set for a period of time. the noaa anomaly charts suggest the sceuro blocking high will slip further south and the upper flow back from a southwesterly to westerly. looks pretty bog standard november weather in the outlook to me. temps returning to average from mild/warm . no sign yet of and widespread frosts (good!, whilst it might have its own aesthetic charm, its not one i appreciate!) .

i guess the 'best' weather type for the crimbo period would be a snowy one... failing that i like the misty gloom, it enhances the seasonal light decorations. so ill not be saddened or despondent to get another 'slug'

We may get variable weather at times, but it's always extremely moderated. We get snow - but rarely a lot. We get rain - but usually light. We get thunderstorms - but rarely powerful. Even our - arguably - most severe weather feature, wind, isn't that notable by global standards. Plus, variable weather works against us - because most of us here either want hot summers or cold winters, not a mix of cool and hot weather in summer or mild and cold weather in winter. I want summer to always be warm, never cool, and I want winter to always be cold, never mild. Save the variable weather for the shoulder seasons.

 

If you want to see a truly variable climate, go to New England - they have highs in the 70s F this week, but about a week ago had lows of 19F, and will have highs of 49F in about 2-3 days time. They also have spectacular fall foliage and plenty of sunshine to enjoy it. It makes our climate look lame.

Edited November 4, 2015 by cheese

[carinthian]

Indeed, our climate is truly awful really whatever the season, I just wish we'd emigrated to somewhere that actually has a climate when we were younger.

Hocus Pocus, I remember many summers playing cricket with two sweaters in a brunt of a relentless NWly wind. Sitting outside a pub on a warm summers evening must seem like a distant memory for you lot up North ! It was a big move to go to the Alps, but the climate is just amazing. I love hot summers, thunderstorms and blowing snow. I get it all here in the Eastern Alps. Slug charts now affecting the British Isles must be the worst type of weather anywhere. Relentess mild and dullness only to be made worse by Christmas lights to soon festoon your shopping centres with artificial German Markets covered in artificial snow ! Hate the weather you have at the moment, I suppose Euro Trash high over here is to blame... Never to late to move...Love England for the pubs and pies though and providing me coverage of sky sports over here..

C

Edited November 4, 2015 by carinthian

[Snow Dayz]

i cannot agree with this..

imho the uk has possibly the best climate in the world , why?, because of the variety we get. we arent stuck with roasting summers/freezing winters, the sort of two type weather patterns that so many get around the world.

i like the variety, its interesting! and IMHO every weather type has its own aesthetic charm about it.

anyway ... this quiet dull spell is set to depart and another 'typical' weather type looks set to dominate as atlantic wind and rain looks set for a period of time. the noaa anomaly charts suggest the sceuro blocking high will slip further south and the upper flow back from a southwesterly to westerly. looks pretty bog standard november weather in the outlook to me. temps returning to average from mild/warm . no sign yet of and widespread frosts (good!, whilst it might have its own aesthetic charm, its not one i appreciate!) .

i guess the 'best' weather type for the crimbo period would be a snowy one... failing that i like the misty gloom, it enhances the seasonal light decorations. so ill not be saddened or despondent to get another 'slug'

 

Yep I couldn't agree more! I lived in Perth Western Australia for 3 years and the weather was totally boring 9 months of hot sunshine and 3 months of cool and wet! and very few thunderstorms! I couldn't wait to get back to England and it varied weather ;0)

[cheese]

The German Markets are the best part! Most of the sellers at our German Market are German, selling authentic German food. No rubbish fake snow either thankfully.

 

It has to be said though that the climate here, while not ideal, isn't the worst in the world - I'd certainly prefer our climate to anywhere in the Med, where it's sunny and warm nearly all year.. how boring. At least we have four seasons - even if they are not as pronounced as some other places. Above user is also correct - somewhere like Perth looks very boring, or most of Australia - some good storms but nothing else I'd like.

 

Plus winters in most of Europe are not very good - usually slushy, or cold rain, and exceptionally dull - much duller than the UK. It isn't until you get to eastern Poland that things become good.

 

Heck, I've talked to people from places like Philadelphia who actually envy our climate because it's stable and is mild enough to grow a larger variety of tropical plant species. and isn't overbearingly hot in summer. Depends on your preferences.

 

Anyway, better get back on topic before Nick L comes in to punish us..

Edited November 4, 2015 by cheese

[Hocus Pocus]

Hocus Pocus, I remember many summers playing cricket with two sweaters in a brunt of a relentless NWly wind. Sitting outside a pub on a warm summers evening must seem like a distant memory for you lot up North ! It was a big move to go to the Alps, but the climate is just amazing. I love hot summers, thunderstorms and blowing snow. I get it all here in the Eastern Alps. Slug charts now affecting the British Isles must be the worst type of weather anywhere. Relentess mild and dullness only to be made worse by Christmas lights to soon festoon your shopping centres with artificial German Markets covered in artificial snow ! Hate the weather you have at the moment, I suppose Euro Trash high over here is to blame... Never to late to move...Love England for the pubs and pies though and providing me coverage of sky sports over here..

C

Indeed carinthian, I long for a proper climate of one which brings long hot summers, spectacular thunderstorms and a winter of snow and ice. If there's one thing that would make me vote yes in the stay in Europe vote it would be a promise of transporting their continental climate to here.   

Edited November 4, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[carinthian]

Indeed carinthian, I long for a proper climate of one which brings long hot summers, spectacular thunderstorms and a winter of snow and ice. If there's one thing that would make me vote yes in the stay in Europe vote it would be a promise of transporting their continental climate to here.   

It was a fantastic summer for much of continental Europe with lots of warm sultry evenings, although parts of France and Iberia it was probabaly too hot at times. However, only got a few good thunderstorms around here. Snow last winter was a miserly affair for much of lowland Europe but had more than most of Blighty did. May be the models will turn good again and show some proper pre-Christmas cold and snowfall for all !

 C

[Nick F]

I must admit I do prefer a temperate continental climate of hot summers interspersed with thunderstorms and cold winters with a decent chance of snow.

 

Being in NW maritime Europe does rather expose the UK to the Atlantic weather systems than the rest of mainland Europe apart from Brittany which has a similar climate. This past summer and horrors like 2012 remind me of our northerly latitude and exposure to the Atlantic which often keeps the heat at bay for long periods in our summers and keeps the cold at bay in the winters too.

 

I think the main reason why I still live where I do in the SE, despite having the yearning to live in somewhere less crowded, more mountainous/rural, is having a better chance indulging in a continental climate being closest to mainland Europe. If it wasn't for work and family ties, I would quite happily live on the continent somewhere like Bavaria or Austria and enjoy a better chance of thunderstorms and snow, my two main weather interests.

[cheese]

I like living where I do, regardless of the climate - I certainly don't want to move to Austria or Germany, however nice they are. Their  climates are poor substitutes in any  case, as my real climate heaven lies in New England or the Baltic states. Western Germany is basically the UK but slightly more continental. It's all boring oceanic.

Edited November 4, 2015 by cheese

[Methuselah]

Can we get back on topic, please?

[Daniel*]

A continental climate can be very boring in fact - very dry too, although yes there are extremes of hot & cold, the novelty would quickly wore off I like the climate I have in London, the lack of snow lets it down.

[knocker]

ECMWF HRES global 10-day to be provided at 0.0625° (!) ~9 km EPS ensemble at 0.125° ~14-16 km That's 4x data volume.

[radiohead]

ECMWF HRES global 10-day to be provided at 0.0625° (!) ~9 km EPS ensemble at 0.125° ~14-16 km That's 4x data volume.

Fantastic. Do you know when this upgrade is rolling out?

[knocker]

Fantastic. Do you know when this upgrade is rolling out?

 

ECMWF has announced its next upgrade to Cycle 41r2 -- end of March 2016. Parallel data in early December.

 

Read all about the updates to ECMWF IFS Cycle 41r2 here: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 â€¦

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Landing point for different set up still looking good on GFS.  Still deep FI but I'm pretty satisfied that its heading the right direction

 

 

That would be much cooler and lead to cold/wintry conditions for some.  12z is colder.

 

So continuing on course for me thus far, though the Euro HP gets less influential a tad earlier than  anticipated

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 4, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

Aye, it's November and the pattern is about to change...Well, I never!

[Mair Snaw]

Love this forum, but why is it at this time of year that a model run shows mild outlook some members on here are posting saying this will happen and no chance of any other weather type happening.... but as soon as any model run shows anything cold certain members are like oh its FI never gonna happen... it cant be cause one model says so... yet if its a mild out look one model saying so is enough?? im pretty sure the whole reason the model runs go out to the time they do is so that trends and pattern changes can be spotted before they arrive...it really gets my jaffa cakes boiling when this happens....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Love this forum, but why is it at this time of year that a model run shows mild outlook some members on here are posting saying this will happen and no chance of any other weather type happening.... but as soon as any model run shows anything cold certain members are like oh its FI never gonna happen... it cant be cause one model says so... yet if its a mild out look one model saying so is enough?? im pretty sure the whole reason the model runs go out to the time they do is so that trends and pattern changes can be spotted before they arrive...it really gets my jaffa cakes boiling when this happens....

 

I think the ignore feature on this forum is next to useless as well! Stafford Forum is miles better

[Methuselah]

I think the ignore feature on this forum is next to useless as well! Stafford Forum is miles better

Cheerio then!

[dbaloo]

"gets my Jaffa cakes boiling".....the best line I have heard in a long time!!

 

I do agree with you though.same every winter in the "mad house" that is the model thread but it does however make for a good discussion â„

[Methuselah]

Well, it's too early for snow...so enjoy the warmth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34728270

[Mokidugway]

Cheerio then!

where you going Ed ..