Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[cheshire snow]

Me thinks the likely hood of that occuring is very slim this winter,to many general indicators of a switch to a colder trend

Have to be honest,i am totally sitting on the fence,i have

Absolutely no idea how winter will unfold,i know what i want,

But wanting and receiving are too different things.

C.S

[simshady]

There appears to be a growing consensus that 'toppling ridges' be added to the swear filter.

 

Only if we can add 'balmy' too

[TwisterGirl81]

I am really missing the gales and rain that we had in the south a couple years ago, this is my least favourite weather....don't get me wrong I don't mind dry but where was this high in summertime.

 

I really hope this isn't a sign of this coming winter, cold, snowy (if there's any chance in the southwest) or wind and rain is what I would like......fingers crossed.

[Evening thunder]

 

Well, I'll take it if it leads to another 31st December 1978..

 

Otherwise based on the models this could possibly be the most boring Autumn I've experienced to make this year a very good contender for the most boring year.. 

 

Typical that it happens when I'm back home from uni with not much going on atm, whereas when at uni all sorts of interesting weather events and storms happened at home in Autumn and Winter.

 

I am really missing the gales and rain that we had in the south a couple years ago, this is my least favourite weather....don't get me wrong I don't mind dry but where was this high in summertime.

 

I really hope this isn't a sign of this coming winter, cold, snowy (if there's any chance in the southwest) or wind and rain is what I would like......fingers crossed.

 

Completely agree with you, though it often feels like we're a minority in wanting more interesting/mobile weather even on this forum.

[snow freak]

dismal and tedious...that's all I have to say on the current weather.

[carinthian]

dismal and tedious...that's all I have to say on the current weather.

 

Euro Trash high embedded for weeks on end looking at the latest charts. Worst scenario for here with no snow for the mountains. Gentle warmth for all , especially in Blighty and France. I bet those birds that flew in early from Russia to escape the cold were wishing they were back home to escape the waft of mild breezes in the marshes. On the bright side, better Euro high now than after Christmas !

 C

[sundog]

looking at the archive charts for nov 78 one can see plenty HP over europe and many of the charts looked rather dire for cold lovers that month but what a winter it did turn out to be. Not saying that is what will happen this winter but im hopefull of a decent winter overall this year.

[Snow Dayz]

Early November 2010 Turned out extremely mild and then look what happened! I'm quite enjoying the warm sunshine at the moment.

[Scorcher]

I don't mind grey with intermittent rain during the winter months. I see something rather nice about, though I have found the last few days'sweather very nice also.

This winter I want either a repeat of February 1998 (17°C and sunshine) or a repeat of winter 2006-07. My ideal winter would be December 2006, January 2007 and February 1998

 

February 2008 was very nice too. I actually enjoyed January 2012 a lot and I was out of the country for January 2007- Jan 2012 had a fair bit of sunshine as well as being mild. I'd like to add March 2012 in there as well as the first month after this incredibly mild winter!

[AndrewSmith]

I'm drawn to the Metcheck GFS025 six-month forecasts.  In my neck of the woods, (Inverness) these are increasingly wintry from late November onwards, with snow symbols appearing from 24th November, and predominating right through to March!  Whilst of course these forecasts are not for the likes of me to take seriously,  the trend shown is a much colder and snowier one than over the last few years.  So it would seem that there is still everything to play for!

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm drawn to the Metcheck GFS025 six-month forecasts.  In my neck of the woods, (Inverness) these are increasingly wintry from late November onwards, with snow symbols appearing from 24th November, and predominating right through to March!  Whilst of course these forecasts are not for the likes of me to take seriously,  the trend shown is a much colder and snowier one than over the last few years.  So it would seem that there is still everything to play for!

Oh dear, you have much to learn. lol.

 

I reallyy wouldnt take a blind bit of notice of them even though you say not seriously. The default winter will always alternate between something colder and milder. No surprise to see those 6 months forecasts do that. But as we are struggling to predict a week away in any time of the year, you have little hope with Metcheck's 6 motnhs forecast.

Edited October 28, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[cheese]

I stopped reading at 'Metcheck', lol.

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh dear, you have much to learn. lol.

 

I seriously wouldnt take a blind bit of notice of them even though you say not seriously. The default winter will always alternate between something colder and milder. No surprise to see those 6 months forecasts do that. But as we are struggling to predict a week away in any time of the year, you have little hope with Metcheck's 6 motnhs forecast.

when times get hard, Metcheck it like the drug of choice. You know it's showing you paradise, but it just leads you on to more addiction and very little that's good :-D

[Methuselah]

I'm drawn to the Metcheck GFS025 six-month forecasts.  In my neck of the woods, (Inverness) these are increasingly wintry from late November onwards, with snow symbols appearing from 24th November, and predominating right through to March!  Whilst of course these forecasts are not for the likes of me to take seriously,  the trend shown is a much colder and snowier one than over the last few years.  So it would seem that there is still everything to play for!

Welcome to NW, Andrew...But I wouldn't get too drawn to anything Metcheck puts out; I spent 20+ years in the Sneck, and, in all that time, to the best of my knowledge, Metcheck never once made an accurate winter LRF...Having said that, I'm not sure anyone-else has, either!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

It would appear that, after giving us a six-month autumn this past couple of years, the weather is attempting to give us a six-month cloudy summer this winter!

[nick sussex]

Still waiting for my first visit to the mountains to play in the snow! A light dusting of snow on the mountain tops this morning but unfortunately I'm not a mountaineer and won't be putting the crampons on to get to over 2,500 metres!

 

The models are dismal for any big changes, the GEFS are dire with little interest. A few survive the mild carnage to get the high a bit further north with more seasonal temps which may give some more frosty weather but most look on the mild/very mild side with the Euro high settling in for the long haul.

[Spikecollie]

Still waiting for my first visit to the mountains to play in the snow! A light dusting of snow on the mountain tops this morning but unfortunately I'm not a mountaineer and won't be putting the crampons on to get to over 2,500 metres!

 

The models are dismal for any big changes, the GEFS are dire with little interest. A few survive the mild carnage to get the high a bit further north with more seasonal temps which may give some more frosty weather but most look on the mild/very mild side with the Euro high settling in for the long haul.

Hi Nick

We'll be waiting and waiting me thinks. Daytime maxima progged up to 21c here Limousin for days to come and no overly cold nights. We even had thunderstorms after a warm day yesterday, which made it even more interesting. Put away the ski suit and get out the shorts!

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick

We'll be waiting and waiting me thinks. Daytime maxima progged up to 21c here Limousin for days to come and no overly cold nights. We even had thunderstorms after a warm day yesterday, which made it even more interesting. Put away the ski suit and get out the shorts!

Yes the weather looks warm for the next week, we could hit mid 20's here early next week with some help from the fohn effect. I can't see any snow for the Pyrenees anytime soon, this mornings dusting will soon disappear. I always get a bit impatient at this time of year, I always look forward to that first decent snowfall, no sooner than that happens then I'm off to Pont D'Espagne to play in it! Have you been up there?

[Liam J]

That's a huge area of high pressure! 

 

 

 

[seaside 60]

OK so we have lots of warm air being pushed northwards on a southerly ish type wind for some while, maybe.

On the plus side is this going far enough north to aid us later this winter, or is this WAA all in the wrong places.

[phil nw.]

I think the downside of this setup is seeing similar charts run on run.

There is very little changing day to day with limited options for discussing this Euro block/Atlantic trough pattern.

Notable mildness and the persistence of the block are the main talking points and it looks like we will be following the high as it continues it's european tour for at least the next 2 weeks.

[Milhouse]

Both December 2006 and January 2007 were sunnier and wetter and much milder than average, so they had a good blend of everything, except for cold obviously. January 2007 is actually the third mildest January on record, in fact.

 

I'd love a repeat of March 2012 too. It wasn't just the warmth of that month, but it was also rediculously sunny and it even felt like summer in the last week. Hopefully we'll see a repeat of all of those months this winter, and the models will co-operate with us.

 

I recall the anticyclonic period just before Christmas 2006 very well. Travelling along on the train on a very cold and misty evening with the daylight fading. I love such anticyclonic spells in winter as long as its not totally foggy all day.

 

[Mair Snaw]

Well its all doom and gloom over in the Model thread.... im pretty sure we are only a few days away from the first Winters over post.... ive just got a sneaky feeling not based on anything other than just a feeling that we are gonna get a sudden switch from this mild stuff to something totally different...

[MP-R]

Both December 2006 and January 2007 were sunnier and wetter and much milder than average, so they had a good blend of everything, except for cold obviously. January 2007 is actually the third mildest January on record, in fact.

 

I'd love a repeat of March 2012 too. It wasn't just the warmth of that month, but it was also rediculously sunny and it even felt like summer in the last week. Hopefully we'll see a repeat of all of those months this winter, and the models will co-operate with us.

Can't forget the cold spell in the final week of January 2007. Brought a sugar coating of snow on the 24th. December 2006 was also cold and anticyclonic for about ten days around Christmas. I think you'd have to go back to 88/89 for a winter totally void of cold.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Il take winter 2012/13 again this year please, 49cm of accumulating snow in total all from frontal events and a northerly toppler

Edited October 28, 2015 by vizzy2004