Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Snowyowl9]

GFS the dream summer I mean autumn run for the dry spell to stay rest of the month, but countryfile ECM etc says otherwise (moan).

[mushymanrob]

I continue to read the mod discussion and still fail to realise why so many dissect the charts when the meto  usually have it right!!  

 

imho theres a difference between discussing what the models are showing, baring in mind theres different options presented by different models, and fantasy 'ifs' and 'buts' with maybe egos being flexed . i 'get' the interest in model pertubations, but fail to get the fantasy predictions, no matter how seemingly well they are presented.

[knocker]

imho theres a difference between discussing what the models are showing, baring in mind theres different options presented by different models, and fantasy 'ifs' and 'buts' with maybe egos being flexed . i 'get' the interest in model pertubations, but fail to get the fantasy predictions, no matter how seemingly well they are presented.

 

Yes mushy the bs detection meter has to be on amber alert.

[Liam J]

I know it's FI but quite a change on the GFS 12z from the 6z... A good example of taking charts with a huge pinch of salt when viewing the output that far out! 

 

6Z 12Z

Edited October 19, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So ECM changing away from its pretty exciting charts?  Will that remain or br a blip?  I think GFS is/was more on the money, and I like the idea that after a more mobile/perhaps stormy for some period 26/7 in line with FM/Perigee, a massive Continental/Scandi block develops bringing some mid autumn calm and warmth to partiuclarly SE exttending to othe parts at times with a S quadrant flow during first 3rd to half of Nov.

So already though we are seeing signs of the model rollercoaster getting warmed up for winter......can't wait

 

BFTP

Edited October 21, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MP-R]

In addition to which, this is a beautiful chart for early November. It's such a shame that it's in FI at this stage, at least...

 

1.png

 

Better for the south, the north would likely be cloudy with drizzle. A UK high or southeasterly feed on the other hand...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Agree with Thunderbolt_ there, does look a dry chart, and warm, I do not want cold charts yet, for my location would be a waste

[Mokidugway]

Looks quite pleasant to me ....

[Liam J]

In addition to which, this is a beautiful chart for early November. It's such a shame that it's in FI at this stage, at least...

 

1.png

It is if you like mucky, mild & damp weather. Personally I don't but some will like it

 

Edited October 21, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Costa Del Fal]

Today was a lovely day. Bright at times and 17c. Looks like no cold weather due. Unless it snows proper I ain't interested so more of this please. Temperatures could start to become above average longer term if some runs keep up.

[cheese]

Today was rubbish compared to the past couple of days. Any extra warmth from higher temperatures was more than mitigated by the near total absence of sun and gusty winds. Yesterday OTOH was brill - proper October day, 14C and mostly sunny and the colours in full display.

Mild for the sake of mild is never any good, unless you're desperate. Same with cold for the sake of cold.

Can't imagine why anyone would actually applaud such dull weather.. really confuses me.

Edited October 21, 2015 by cheese

[Costa Del Fal]

Today was rubbish compared to the past couple of days. Any extra warmth from higher temperatures was more than mitigated by the near total absence of sun and gusty winds. Yesterday OTOH was brill - proper October day, 14C and mostly sunny and the colours in full display.

Mild for the sake of mild is never any good, unless you're desperate. Same with cold for the sake of cold.

Can't imagine why anyone would actually applaud such dull weather.. really confuses me.

It was bright after the rain cleared with a few glimpes of sun. Yesterday was sunnier for sure but today was certainly not just plain dull here at least. Otherwise, yes I would prefer the most sunny option. Nice to feel the warmer air if even just for a bit though today.

 

It has not been windy at all here and it is still 16c now too.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Costa Del Fal]

I couldn't care less how exceptional it is, all snow is rubbish. A brief flurry is just as miserable as another 1962-63 would be, in my opinion. Let's just say I'd be very happy never to see a single flake of it every again in my life...

 

Anyways, I have enjoyed todays weather. Yes it has been cloudy, but it has felt much milder and more comfortable than the last two weeks have. Here's to more of the same over the rest of the autumn and winter season.

I used to love all kinds of cold weather but is generally a complete nuisance to me. I hate pointless dry cold now plus spells that just bring a sleet shower or odd flurry. I do like snow when it stops everything for the day and people (generally) are at home and things go really peaceful outside.

 

Lets hope no snow makes it to Failsworth ever again. Your town's unfortunate name might do you some favours. Lol.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[knocker]

I notice in the other thread there is a suggestion that a false reality is creeping in with the use of anomaly charts. Good grief, false reality in the mod thread...............surly not, what a ridiculous suggestion. But wait what about the first epic fail? Oh bugger forgot about that.

 

As a footnote Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 on <20 epic fails by the end of February. Not good value IMO.

[cornish snow]

I used to love all kinds of cold weather but is generally a complete nuisance to me. I hate pointless dry cold now plus spells that just bring a sleet shower or odd flurry. I do like snow when it stops everything for the day and people (generally) are at home and things go really peaceful outside.

 

Lets hope no snow makes it to Failsworth ever again. Your town's unfortunate name might do you some favours. Lol.

I'd rather have dry cold weather to the endless mild rainy muck,we have to endure each winter As a landscape gardener the last few weeks have been great,more of the same please.

[Costa Del Fal]

I'd rather have dry cold weather to the endless mild rainy muck,we have to endure each winter As a landscape gardener the last few weeks have been great,more of the same please.

I have been happy with the last 2 weeks too. Here at least it has not been cold but still dry. In the depths of winter yes very mild weather is usually fairly wet too but not necessarily right now.

[mushymanrob]

Today was rubbish compared to the past couple of days. Any extra warmth from higher temperatures was more than mitigated by the near total absence of sun and gusty winds. Yesterday OTOH was brill - proper October day, 14C and mostly sunny and the colours in full display.

Mild for the sake of mild is never any good, unless you're desperate. Same with cold for the sake of cold.

Can't imagine why anyone would actually applaud such dull weather.. really confuses me.

 

what an odd post.... just what would make you happy at this time of the year? these recent mind days have been very enjoyable, and seasonal.

[cheese]

what an odd post.... just what would make you happy at this time of the year? these recent mind days have been very enjoyable, and seasonal.

I've already said what makes me happy - some sunshine! The type of weather we had two days ago - 14C, mostly sunny. If cloudy, windy weather is considered seasonable then no, I'm not happy.

Edited October 22, 2015 by cheese

[Richard2901]

This has to be about the most depressing season I can remember. Lots of sunshine during the week when stuck at work then miserable grey/wet weekends. Absolutely sick of it. Be as well being horrible all the time like last autumn which, despite being the dullest since 1968, gave more weekend sunshine than this hideous season.

 

Four awful grey Saturdays in a row and what's coming up is just even worse. A vile wet day to make it five horrors in a row. Only one good Saturday all autumn so far in fact (19th Sept). Over 5 hours sun average per week day this month and under 3 at the weekend which will get even worse with the upcoming write-off. Just abysmal

[Liam J]

Amongst all the doom and gloom Aberdeen was the warmest place in the UK yesterday @ 21c, good going for late October.. 

[A.J]

just a reminder that this the model moan/ramp thread.....a lot of posts in here would be more suited to other threads, such as the 'current conditions' thread, weather preferences thread and the winter 2015 seasonal thread....thanks

[Liam J]

Hope the ECM is onto something here with a very active Atlantic...

 

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

This has to be about the most depressing season I can remember. Lots of sunshine during the week when stuck at work then miserable grey/wet weekends. Absolutely sick of it. Be as well being horrible all the time like last autumn which, despite being the dullest since 1968, gave more weekend sunshine than this hideous season.

 

Four awful grey Saturdays in a row and what's coming up is just even worse. A vile wet day to make it five horrors in a row. Only one good Saturday all autumn so far in fact (19th Sept). Over 5 hours sun average per week day this month and under 3 at the weekend which will get even worse with the upcoming write-off. Just abysmal

 

 

thank you for your usual up beat report Richard. I do hope you are a little more happy when at home with your family. Life sounds so depressing for you from a weather point of view. Quite often too your comments are somewhat different from other posters in your area. You mention work, just where is that and how far from Aberdeen. genuine interest Richard.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hope the ECM is onto something here with a very active Atlantic...

 

ecm20.gifecm21.gifecm22.gif

 

you're joking? 'hope' no way but likely will be right, don't fancy getting wet/blown away

[Liam J]

you're joking? 'hope' no way but likely will be right, don't fancy getting wet/blown away

No joke lol... Love a bit of the Atlantic at full force this time of year, the cold/frost/snow can hold of until winter proper (if it turns up at all)  

Edited October 22, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*