Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[mushymanrob]

all this talk of october snow... with high pressure around a proper indian summer is more likely!

[Liam J]

Yes high pressure making a return again but with a different feel to last week with cooler air in the mix this time. Perhaps more of a risk of seeing frost & fog, hopefully a few days of crisp autumn weather to enjoy so we can get out and about amongst the lovely autumn colours. 

[stainesbloke]

Yes high pressure making a return again but with a different feel to last week with cooler air in the mix this time. Perhaps more of a risk of seeing frost & fog, hopefully a few days of crisp autumn weather to enjoy so we can get out and about amongst the lovely autumn colours.

Sounds great, some sunny days, frosty/foggy nights and light winds would be ideal for the rest of Oct.

[knocker]

Sad to report my daf. shoots have been zapped by a frosty hand.

[markyo]

Sounds great, some sunny days, frosty/foggy nights and light winds would be ideal for the rest of Oct.

If that comes off it would make a perfect October! How autumn should be

[Liam J]

Yes, looking forward to high pressure making a return again showing us the quieter face of autumn for a few days at least. However I would like to see some meaty Atlantic storms at some stage, perhaps into November!   

[tempestwatch]

Do you think the current style set up could continue late into Autumn and winter given that it is an El Nino year? I am fascinated in the fact that our weather seems to get 'stuck' in patterns for elongated periods of time i.e.zonal then high pressure dominated. Could El Nino encourage a high pressure dominated winter?

[mushymanrob]

Yes high pressure making a return again but with a different feel to last week with cooler air in the mix this time. Perhaps more of a risk of seeing frost & fog, hopefully a few days of crisp autumn weather to enjoy so we can get out and about amongst the lovely autumn colours. 

 

yeah, sunny skies do bring the colours out better. but im in no hurry for cold / frost.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, looking forward to high pressure making a return again showing us the quieter face of autumn for a few days at least. However I would like to see some meaty Atlantic storms at some stage, perhaps into November!  

 

Not for me, keep it up in Cumbria, but yes I want quiet settled and increasingly cold high pressure autumn

[stevofunnelcl]

this made me laugh

 

track for the ex-hurricane

 

https://twitter.com/VelocityChasing/status/651724258100559872/photo/1

 

where the heck is this thing going to go !!

[Milhouse]

Im hoping next weeks easterly gets toned down. Fair enough if it was winter i would accept that it would provide some interest, But im afraid it looks cool and breezy with lots of cloud and drizzle/light rain spilling across the North Sea. Id much rather see some raging southwesterlies now.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Incoming

 

 

First post of (nearly) Winter 2015 - 2016 - hope it's a memorable one if the supposed El Nino effect has anything to do with it.

 

December 2010 anyone?

 

Ian

Edited October 9, 2015 by Iceaxecrampon

[IanR]

boring weather coming up ZZZZZZZZZZ

[joggs]

Just have that feeling this year for something akin to 2010.The jet will power up but I think it's going to be a very southerly tracking jet alot of the time(iberia).Due to the cold pool in the Atlantic.Also think it won't be fully organised and come in fits n starts.And higher pressure over the Arctic for me been a player this winter.My only fear is this been positioned on ne America side and becoming too West based.

Very interesting imo.

Edited October 9, 2015 by joggs

[joggs]

Just too add,Dec n Feb for winter fans for me with Jan more akin to what has become a typical winter month.

[Evening thunder]

Yes, looking forward to high pressure making a return again showing us the quieter face of autumn for a few days at least. However I would like to see some meaty Atlantic storms at some stage, perhaps into November!  

 

Yes me too, Looks like they'll have to avoid Stafford and go both north and south of there though.

 

I can't help feel a bit frustrated at how we're getting all this high pressure now at pretty much the least useful time of year for that, when it would have been great in summer, and also better in winter with hard frosts. Especially if it drifts slightly west and moderates the Atlantic cold pool further just before it may be of some benefit..

 

Having said that I do like misty/foggy starts and sunny days.

[Frosty.]

 

December 2010 anyone?

 

Ian

Yes please, lots and lots and lots and lots and lots more of this        

[tinybill]

looking at the fantasy land models  the coldies  must be licking their  lips!!!

[Liam J]

boring weather coming up ZZZZZZZZZZ

Is that what the crystal ball is saying? 

[Liam J]

Yes me too, Looks like they'll have to avoid Stafford and go both north and south of there though.

 

I can't help feel a bit frustrated at how we're getting all this high pressure now at pretty much the least useful time of year for that, when it would have been great in summer, and also better in winter with hard frosts. Especially if it drifts slightly west and moderates the Atlantic cold pool further just before it may be of some benefit..

 

Having said that I do like misty/foggy starts and sunny days.

Looks the like the Atlantic won't be waking up any time soon! So we'll have to wait a bit for the first proper autumn gales... One positive there is that the trees are getting to keep hold of the leaves for longer allowing some nice colours to develop. 

 

Patchy frost & fog likely next week under the high pressure especially further north and west away from the easterly breeze. The question is how long can we keep high pressure in our vicinity?! And where we do we go next... 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yes please, lots and lots and lots and lots and lots more of this        

 

.......Ramp of the Winter......erm Autumn so far

 

Ian

[Frosty.]

.......Ramp of the Winter......erm Autumn so far

 

Ian

Yep Ian and this is the perfect place to ramp away innit

[Daniel*]

[Mokidugway]

image.jpg

it's comming :0...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

There's some good agreement between GFS and ECM at 240 hrs of a blocking high in the atlantic! If this carries on until November, it looks good for the rest of the winter! Whats the latest timeframe before the Atlantic gears up for us to start ramping up the signs of a colder winter ?