Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Costa Del Fal]

There's some good agreement between GFS and ECM at 240 hrs of a blocking high in the atlantic! If this carries on until November, it looks good for the rest of the winter! Whats the latest timeframe before the Atlantic gears up for us to start ramping up the signs of a colder winter ?

Please elaborate on this. Sounds like we needn't bother looking at the models folks after November...

 

Getting rather tired of the hopecasting that goes on here. Please remember our default winter pattern is too mild for regular snow. There are so many variables at play and more often than not they favour conditions that do not support snow.

Edited October 9, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Please elaborate on this. Sounds like we needn't bother looking at the models folks after November...

 

Getting rather tired of the hopecasting that goes on here. Please remember our default winter pattern is too mild for regular snow. There are so many variables at play and more often than not they favour conditions that do not support snow.

There's a lot of talk about the possibility of the blocking conditions in the Atlantic defying the usual gearing up of the Atlantic during October / November being a pre-cursor to a more blocked winter implying better chances of N' and E' outbreaks. Metcheck posted an article recently about blocking patterns too in their 'pipelines' post. :cold:

Edited October 9, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[knocker]

 

My point being that many people see the EC32 as too significant - whereas in fact the EC32 is frequently off target. 

 

I thought my point was therefore pretty clear - I'll try and spell it out for you more obviously next time.

 

When I first saw the quote above from Catacol Highlander in the other thread I thought it was an attempt at satire but on reflection decided not. That being the case it really does open up a can of worms. Posts that are seen as too significant well,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,no perhaps best left before the yellow cards are flourished.

[Evening thunder]

Looks the like the Atlantic won't be waking up any time soon! So we'll have to wait a bit for the first proper autumn gales... One positive there is that the trees are getting to keep hold of the leaves for longer allowing some nice colours to develop. 

 

Patchy frost & fog likely next week under the high pressure especially further north and west away from the easterly breeze. The question is how long can we keep high pressure in our vicinity?! And where we do we go next... 

 

Yes that's true, normally I think of the best Autumn colours around here being in around early November give or take a couple weeks (at least for the common big woodland trees such as Oak and Beech), however it some colour is starting to develop already and yesterday I went to Cornwall and there were some quite nice colours on the way there, probably best between Exeter and Okehamphon, though that's just one road of course

 

There's a lot of talk about the possibility of the blocking conditions in the Atlantic defying the usual gearing up of the Atlantic during October / November being a pre-cursor to a more blocked winter implying better chances of N' and E' outbreaks. Metcheck posted an article recently about blocking patterns too in their 'pipelines' post. :cold:

 

That's interesting if so as it goes against some other indicators and long range models going for an unsettled/wet late Autumn/early winter, such as in the Met Office contingency planners forecast

Edited October 10, 2015 by Evening thunder

[knocker]

Tut................Snowfall in the forecast over the next two weeks!

 

Edited October 11, 2015 by knocker

[cyclonic happiness]

Metcheck are garbage, in all honesty. I'd wait until a more reliable weather ganecy makes a long-range forecast.

i remember Metcheck from years ago, when it used to forecast heavy snow up to 2 weeks in advance, but it never nearer to the the present time-frame.

 

I only use it now to fool myself into thinking it's going to snow :-D 

[David Morse]

I though this was an interesting piece: http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2015/10/10/winter-2015-16-analogue-years-assessment/

[knocker]

As we prepare to welcome the warmth back (courtesy WSI)

 

[tinybill]

reg   geese

 

i was reading  the paper  this  morning saying they are over  a  month  early  i cam cofrirm  were i work  we  have seen large flocks of  candian/russian  geese arr   manily in the  morning  landing  at   pits behind  us

Edited October 13, 2015 by tinybill

[mushymanrob]

yeah i see the medival minded are thinking we are in for a bad winter "because the bewick swans have arrived early" .... maybe the met office should take note and hire a swan.

on the other hand, early cold in their summer quarters and a beneficial wind (instead of a usual strong southwesterly headwind) might have something to do with it...

[Liam J]

Oh dear, a few tweaks away from uncle Barty...   

 

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Lovely and mild those charts. Unless it can snow proper, give me as warm as possible please.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Lovely and mild those charts. Unless it can snow proper, give me as warm as possible please.

 

yeah, 23rd 0ct, certainly wouldn't mind that, looks dry at least

[markyo]

Lovely and mild those charts. Unless it can snow proper, give me as warm as possible please.

Can say for certain those charts will not happen! 

[Liam J]

Can say for certain those charts will not happen! 

Hi Markyo, why for certain will those charts not happen? (I hope they don't BTW) But if something like that did materialise it's still only October and nowhere near winter yet, well about 6 weeks to go...

Edited October 14, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Costa Del Fal]

Can say for certain those charts will not happen! 

Please elaborate why those charts from arguably the worlds best weather model are for CERTAIN not going to materialise? Is it because it does not suit your weather preference? If so god help this forum come winter! lol

Edited October 14, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Daniel*]

Oh dear, a few tweaks away from uncle Barty...   

 

ecm3.gifecm4.gif

Not at all...

This is uncle Barty in all his glory let us never have a winter like that again!

Winter killer - the chart above is nothing of the sort just transitory and not very extensive

[summer blizzard]

Not at all...

This is uncle Barty in all his glory let us never have a winter like that again!

Winter killer - the chart above is nothing of the sort just transitory and not very extensive

image.jpg

 

Day of my birth. Looks a wee bit windy in Peterhead.

[Liam J]

Not at all...

This is uncle Barty in all his glory let us never have a winter like that again!

Winter killer - the chart above is nothing of the sort just transitory and not very extensive

image.jpg

Christ what a hideous chart!!! I was only 7 during that winter and can't really remember it... 

[tinybill]

all i say  if this  comes  of in fantast world     the  coldies will be licking  their  lips!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Christ what a hideous chart!!! I was only 7 during that winter and can't really remember it... 

 

better than the 2 posted in the model thread, Nov '09

[Daniel*]

all i say  if this  comes  of in fantast world     the  coldies will be licking  their  lips!!

No that looks horribly wet and cool.

[Liam J]

all i say  if this  comes  of in fantast world     the  coldies will be licking  their  lips!!

Maybe if it was a month down the line. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

even if winter, would only be Scottish snow, looks much less cold to the south

[Costa Del Fal]

all i say  if this  comes  of in fantast world     the  coldies will be licking  their  lips!!

Have you ever posted a chart not in the depths of FI?