Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Snowmad79]

2010 was a very anticyclonic autumn (though it was often a UK high rather than a Euro high in that season) and I think many on here would happily take what happened after that.

 

I have said this before and I honestly stand by it - I don't believe that autumn has much effect at all on winter, especially September, October and the first part of November anyway. An anticyclonic autumn doesn't gaurantee a cyclonic, zonal winter, just like a zonal autumn doesn't always mean a blocked winter. The same goes for temperatures - mild autumns don't mean mild winters and cold autumns don't equal cold winters etc.

 

it was but the HP was centred to the west of the UK with troughing south through Scandi into Europe so we had North Westerly and northerly flow followed by a decent n-easterly in November. This autumn saw HP over the UK and centred to our East which is now becoming positioned over Europe which gives a Werly and soon to be South westerly flow.

 

So actually quite a contrast in reality.

[snow freak]

I am only hoping the current Autumn mild spell is not an indication of what is to come this winter and it will ultimately be replaced by cold and snow by December.  The thought of another snowless mild winter fills me with dread.

[Costa Del Fal]

I wish people would get rid of the quota thing out of their heads too. I.e better to have the mild stuff now rather than winter. It will last all winter if it wants to. For example we hardly had much heat to compensate the coolness this summer except the one day anomaly 1st July. The last 2 snowless winters don't Mean it will be made up for now.. Things are always changing to an extent but around our default pattern which is not entrenched cold and blizzards.

[Liam J]

Very mild Halloween on the GFS 12z with temps into the mid teens. 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Very mild Halloween on the GFS 12z with temps into the mid teens. 

 

gfs21.pnggfs22.pnggfs23.png

 

Yep could we have 2 very mild Halloweens running its possible

 

[Liam J]

Yep could we have 2 very mild Halloweens running its possible

 

That is a very mild chart!! Could see a 20c if that verified? And that's at 6pm in the evening over an hour after sunset! 

[sundog]

What's interesting is the Halloween record prior to last year was about 21C I believe, set quite a few years ago (not sure of the actual year). It's quite amazing to think that it could be bettered 2 years on the trot.

 

How depressing imo,another stupidly mild halloween this yr though of course not on par with last yr.  Halloween to me is

 about the coming of winter and in some way should have a certain winter is coming feel to it, not this ott mild crap that looks likely.

[Liam J]

Also tomorrow is looking very mild, perhaps a 20c recorded somewhere in the SE?

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mild to very mild for at last two weeks....maybe even longer...this set up isn't going to change quickly

 

 

BFTP

Edited October 26, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

Also tomorrow is looking very mild, perhaps a 20c recorded somewhere in the SE?

 

gfs24.png

 

The beeb are saying 21c could be hit tomorrow away from the south west where it will be wet

[Scorcher]

 

After a chilly start this morning it certainly looks like a mild final week of October (how many times has this happened over the years?!) with every chance of 16-20C in the opening days of November, subject to changes nearer the time of course.

 

Yes that's true, we have seen mild/warm ends to October/November on a number of occasions in recent years- 2009, 2010 (some high temperatures in the first few days of November), 2011 and of course last year spring to mind. 2005 also had a very warm late October/beginning of November. 

 

October 2010 had its fair share of warm weather as well as that early cold snap with the hard frosts. It finished on a warm note and there were a couple of early warm spells with temperatures widely into the low 20s.

[MP-R]

It's not about doom and gloom, It's about the reality of how previous winters panned out after the transition from Autumn to winter.  I would struggle to name any winters good for cold where HP dominated throughout Autumn with a stagnant Euro high towards the end into winter.

 

Doom and gloom would be declaring winter over before its started by saying the PV is already too strong and that 65% of all EL Nino winters were a disaster for UK in terms of Snowy weather Personally I'm going for Largely Cold and Dry with the occasional snowfests in places.

 

Well there's been plenty of that too lol. Not that pattern matching works, but a lot of the slow burners have had Novembers featuring a lot of 'featureless' southeasterly weather which is neither cyclonic nor anticyclonic, just monotonous, a bit like 2011 and 2014. Admittedly there seems to be a lot more Euro high showing in the models lately but I always like to see an Atlantic in full swing in November; quiet Novembers (albeit very rare) give me bad feelings about the coming winter. I got that bad feeling in November 2013 and the rest is history.

[snow freak]

What's interesting is the Halloween record prior to last year was about 21C I believe, set quite a few years ago (not sure of the actual year). It's quite amazing to think that it could be bettered 2 years on the trot.

 

How depressing imo,another stupidly mild halloween this yr though of course not on par with last yr.  Halloween to me is

 about the coming of winter and in some way should have a certain winter is coming feel to it, not this ott mild crap that looks likely.

i agree, a mild Halloween is not something I get excited about.  why the hell does this island do everything topsy turvy?  cool in summer and mild come the winter.  yes I know we're an island in the atlantic, gulf stream, etc.  Still frustrates me though.

[Summer Sun]

GFS again showing some very mild temps in Saturday widely in the high teens for England not as mild as Halloween 2014 but still well above average

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Are ECM and GFS now homing in on the Anchored massive continental/ S Scandinavian block with winds from S Quadrant for the UK?  I think a True ' Indian summer' looks a distinct possibility now possibly lasting for first third if not first half of Nov....that's my call anyway.

 

 

BFTP. 

Edited October 27, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MP-R]

Are ECM and GFS now homing in on the Anchored massive continental/ S Scandinavian block with winds from S Quadrant for the UK?  I think a True ' Indian summer' looks a distinct possibility now possibly lasting for first third if not first half of Nov....that's my call anyway.

 

 

BFTP. 

 

I wouldn't get too carried away - the Atlantic isn't far away and any veer towards southwesterly winds will usher in a lot of cloud hindering higher temperatures being felt.

 

On a side note when was the last pleasnt start to November? From my records 2007 started dry and warm and 2003 had a few warmer days in the first week. I think 2006 started dry but on the chilly side in an otherwise warm autumn.

[Mark Neal.]

Again, another exceptionally mild chart for early November, with GFS going for 19C on the south coast, and the mid-teens elsewhere. The November temperature record is 21.7C in Prestatyn, set on 4 November 1946.

 

viewimage.pbx.png

 

Nice to see it potentially under threat!

Wouldn't surprise me if we get close to that, given yesterday we saw just under 16c here and we were only forecasted a high of 14c. 

[Ravelin]

Am I the only one that thinks 20c+ just feels 'wrong' when the trees are losing their leaves and it's well on the way to being dark by 5pm? Not that it'll likely happen this far north.

[legritter]

Again, another exceptionally mild chart for early November, with GFS going for 19C on the south coast, and the mid-teens elsewhere. The November temperature record is 21.7C in Prestatyn, set on 4 November 1946.

 

viewimage.pbx.png

 

Nice to see it potentially under threat!

And of course followed by an extreme snowy winter ,just a thought but anything could be lurking around the Meteorological corner ,warmest winter on record ,Wettest on record !driest ,coldest ,snowiest and just boring old average .

or perhaps an ice age   yes please bring it on .

[solarcycle]

While I don't fit your criterion  , I'll comment that aside from the CFS none of the model output goes out that far. The MetO have other tools they use for the long range thoughts (EUROSIP, DECIDER, etc) along with plain old experience and expertise presumably.

 

But anyway, here's an example of an exceptionally mild start to November with a chilly end in the south east.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Am I the only one that thinks 20c+ just feels 'wrong' when the trees are losing their leaves and it's well on the way to being dark by 5pm?.

No. I'm loving it. Keeps the hell period away for longer. Unless it snows proper I don't give two hoots about winter!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ecm 120 and 144, would be unimaginable if say Wimbledon, would be looking at 33C, maybe higher in South

 

just as well it's nov 1st, where won't be too hot, decent temp of 18C I'd guess

[cheshire snow]

ecm 120 and 144, would be unimaginable if say Wimbledon, would be looking at 33C, maybe higher in South

 

just as well it's nov 1st, where won't be too hot, decent temp of 18C I'd guess

indeed +10 uppers on those two frames you quote from the

ECM any sunny spells i would not rule out 21c

C.S

[joggs]

Bring the warm Temps on,let's have some waa pumped as far north as possible.Loving these charts at mo,better than wind and rain for me.Something tells me it's not going to be a normal strong/flat vortex this winter,bring it on

Edited October 27, 2015 by joggs

[markyo]

Bring the warm Temps on,let's have some waa pumped as far north as possible.Loving these charts at mo,better than wind and rain for me.Something tells me it's not going to be a normal strong/flat vortex this winter,bring it on

Me thinks the likely hood of that occuring is very slim this winter,to many general indicators of a switch to a colder trend