Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[MP-R]

i agree carinthian although nov 09 and nov 97 both mild complete opposite though when winter set in...

 

1997

Rrea00119971101.gif

 

2009

Rrea00120091101.gif

 

I think if we see a decline in solar output in the coming month or two then feb march could be wintry.

 

as it stands I feel nov dec and jan could have some very exceptional high temps very 1997/98 which I hated to be honest in fact 08/09 09/10 11/12 been ok here in the south but been rubbish since but 97/98 was by far the worse winter I was ill from flu none stop through autumn and winter.

 

so ive got a twenty foot straw I'm clutching but don't hold hope for wintry start to the season.

but do feel feb march might throw some suprises.

 

And notice how November 2009 was mild and very cyclonic, whereas 1997 (at least for parts) was more anticyclonic. We'll see how it turns out, we could get a 1978 setup, but I really want to see the jet moving south pdq!

[markyo]

I don't think "boring" is the right word to use? "Unpleasant" might be a  better adjective for you. Potentially reaching 20C in November is really quite some achievement. It's the sunny mild too, not the cloudy mild, which is also quite unusual at this time of the year.

i agree,my wording was probably wrong. Always looking for for that interesting weather and any thing knocking on to a record must be classed as that! Even though its not my perference!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Rather than the slightly more serious model thread I'll put this in here as its about ramping too.......we know I'm calling for a month of two halves....so GFS 06z brings me a deep FI chart that looks like the possible pattern that brings the change I'm angling at.....looking forward to it to see if it happens around then but will enjoy the calm for now.

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 1, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[carinthian]

Rather than the slightly more serious model thread I'll put this in here as its about ramping too.......we know I'm calling for a month of two halves....so GFS 06z brings me a deep FI chart that looks like the possible pattern that brings the change I'm angling at.....looking forward to it to see if it happens around then but will enjoy the calm for now.

 

 

BFTP

 

Good God BFTP, look at that source of the southerly draw into the Austrian Alps. I will be in melt down. The lifts are due to open two weeks from that chart. I think the attendants will be put on a delayed start date. There is just nothing to work with and not a single snow flake in sight.

 C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sorry C...Lol.  Unfortunately there is no sign of improvement for sometime!!

 

BFTP

[carinthian]

Sorry C...Lol.  Unfortunately there is no sign of improvement for sometime!!

 

BFTP

Cheers for that. Invested in a snow mobile this summer, mainly for my wife to use and pick me up from the pub in the valley ! Looks like I will have to walk for a while yet.

 C

[summer blizzard]

GFS has the Atlantic making progress from day 9 while GEM has the high further north with the threat of cooler surface weather.

Steps forward perhaps.

[cyclonic happiness]

At long last some cold weather, and not just cold , very cold, has been spotted in the bowels of FI this morning.

 

And with the polar vortex shredded and moving over toward Siberia, it looks like another 2009/10 cold spell.

 

But it's only one run!!    

 

More runs needed please.... :-)

[Liam J]

At long last some cold weather, and not just cold , very cold, has been spotted in the bowels of FI this morning.

 

And with the polar vortex shredded and moving over toward Siberia, it looks like another 2009/10 cold spell.

 

But it's only one run!!    

 

More runs needed please.... :-)

Have you got any charts you can post? I've had a look at the ensembles and yes there is a downward trend in temps later on,  I wouldn't call them very cold? 

[summer blizzard]

I'm calling a level 2 ramp alert on some of the model posts. Giddiness and a comparison to winter 2010.

Although the chart is beautiful at day 16.

[knocker]

Surely not. It's just a matter of waiting for the ecm and NOAA to come on board and the cup will runneth over. Of course they showed no signs of doing so last night.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So things possibly beginning to gear up to my pattern change/different second half of the month to something more seasonal and perhaps somewhat pretty cold for our friends further north ....however, anticipated landing point is still around midmonth onwards for it to kick in.  So what has GFS got on offer today on 00z for 16th

 

Feeling much cooler with a secondary 'aggressive' feature waiting to our NW.  Overall heading same way as yesterdays 06z.

 

Now the 18z last night.

 

 

Not as enticing...but headed in similar direction.  Way way in FI but a period to watch for signalling the change for what I'm touting will be a very active and autumnal back half [to particularly back third which may well be quite wintry for some].

 

 

For now though.....ground hog day...

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 2, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[NorthernRab]

very symmetrical synoptics between the eastern pacific and eastern atlantic..very similar to last 2 weeks of November 2010

Narrowly beat me to it you swine!

[simshady]

Good grief.................a plume!

 

I can cook my breakfast on the pavement in these 'exceptional' temperatures...I don't want it much hotter. Already at the heady temp of 9.6c today! 

Edited November 2, 2015 by simshady

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Good grief.................a plume!

Wish it was August!!

 

BFTP

Edited November 2, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[throwoff]

I do love the ramp thread when stuff starts popping up in FI!

 

Right now I would be happy to just see the end of this fog, driving country lanes, onto a motorway renowned for accidents onto more country lanes is not fun in this!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

• So can we glean further confidence from the sustained model runs of such a a set up with massive continental/south Scandi block and south quadrant flow for up to first third/mid Nov? [see post several pages back]  They seem determined and I am of relatively high confidence that this is coming off.  Devil in the detail but overall set up looks good.   As regards to doom and gloom on the model thread, yes it can be frustrating  but set ups like these do take time to shift and in the current longterm pattern we are in of the jet being far more meridional such set ups of 'ruts' are more likely.  I have made my own notes suggesting that Nov will be of 2 halves and I suggest quite different second half of the month....particularly last third.  So onwards and upwards as we deepen into autumn and head towards winter
•  

BFTP

 

So let's quantify this a bit more, clues coming with some charts I've posted.  I expect a change to LPs attacking from NW with sub lows further south thus the trough over the UK.  Much colder weather to take over with  quite wintry conditions for some [note not deep freeze].  The following wouldn't look out of place during latter half...and maintains a current GFS FI theme...for now.  Nice whilst it shows...will this come about though?

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 3, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[I remember Atlantic 252]

pure fantasy i know but that chart posted above looks like my snowfest of 19th Nov '96

[cyclonic happiness]

Have you got any charts you can post? I've had a look at the ensembles and yes there is a downward trend in temps later on,  I wouldn't call them very cold? 

This is a ramping thread, and after 2 years of no snow, everything looks like 2010 :-P

[Methuselah]

This is a ramping thread, and after 2 years of no snow, everything looks like 2010 :-P

Up until 2010, everything looked like 1962!

[Hocus Pocus]

There's more to ramp about from mid month than the entire winter of last year.

 

Edit; Due to my advancing years I thought I originally posted this in here but alas my failing eyesight and senility  has finally gotten the better of me. A quick memo to the the mods, can we highlight the words banter on the thread for cumbersome OAPs like me.

Edited November 2, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[Liam J]

This is a ramping thread, and after 2 years of no snow, everything looks like 2010 :-P

Yes it sure is but I like to try and be realistic with what's actually being shown in the model outputs, I like a good ramp but more often than not ramping FI la la land charts proves fruitless and ends in bitter disappointment.. Hopefully the current eye candy emerging from the GFS gathers some momentum and at the same time it also gets some back up from other models, until then I remain overly cautious...

[solarcycle]

I'm looking forward to all the drama and theatrics that the first sniff of cold will produce.

[cyclonic happiness]

Yes it sure is but I like to try and be realistic with what's actually being shown in the model outputs, I like a good ramp but more often than not ramping FI la la land charts proves fruitless and ends in bitter disappointment.. Hopefully the current eye candy emerging from the GFS gathers some momentum and at the same time it also gets some back up from other models, until then I remain overly cautious...

Seriously, the bottom has fallen out of my faith in winter already. I'm gonna celebrate like it's 1999 when the snow falls and settles. I hope this board is ready? 

 

Also you'll have a very busy Midlands thread too, seeing as they were mostly on the snowless boat that I've been on :-p

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Breaking news.....Is the ECM beginning to see it too??  I know some are saying lala land etc...but this is the banter thread....and actually I'm cautiously optimistic for this change to come in at the right timeframe too.....latter half and particularly last 3rd.  At least we have somehting different to look out for!!!

 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 3, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST