Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Evening thunder]

Except for you and Thunderbolt, I have genuinely never met another living soul who professes to enjoy damp, sunless weather. This recent spell of weather is what gives our climate its dreary and depressing reputation, and why 700,000 Brits call Spain home..

Seriously - I use an international weather forum and our climate is without a doubt the most unpopular around. It's quite possibly the dullest place in the world that is significantly populated. Even hot weather lovers would rather spend a winter in Boston US than Boston UK.

Nothing beautiful about it mate. You're in the minority here.

Oh; and we are on our 7th consecutive sunless day - so this weather isn't normal at all. It's not normal to go 7 days without seeing the sun.

 

Well I read international forums and there's definitely a number that would prefer this climate to a variety of others. 

 

I don't think it's the worst climate. For example I went to Fuerteventura in June, the weather was identical every day (as usual) and the landscape was far to barren for me. If I lived there I probably wouldn't have an interest in weather really. Still it may be good for those without an interest in weather, but I guess you wouldn't find them on weather forums.

Any climate with a season or longer like that would probably be quite testing for me.

 

There is of course much better climates IMO.. and I'd rather spend a winter/year in Boston too as that's near my perfect climate.. but I try not to sit here depressed just because climate is better elsewhere.

For what it's worth places like Miami haven't beaten London's record high (it is 38C for both), despite Miami's average July high being 33C.. so you could argue London gets more extremes and Miami weather stays generally the same. good for Thunderstorms though, and the odd 'cane.

Even Oklahoma City's record maxima deviates less from it's average summer maxima than London's.. statistics eh.. but I guess that could be down to our suppressed maxima.. I'm not suggesting our climate is better.

 

However our climate may be one of the most frustrating, with the pretty much the lowest seasonal range at our latitude and proximity to the continent where we watch more temperature extremes and big thunderstorms go by, along with the marginality for snow.

[Paul]

And like so many times before, please can we bring this back to model related banter. There are places for discussing weather likes and dislikes elsewhere. 

[Paul]

Can I ask everyone to have a read of the Model thread survival guide we've put together for the upcoming winter. It contains a whole lot of info including posting guidelines, info on what the team will do if/when problems occur, and a bunch of other things we hope will help to keep this thread running smoothly through the winter. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84360-the-model-thread-survival-guide-for-winter-201516-please-read/

 

Also, if you haven't see it yet, we've just opened a winter area for the season:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84359-new-winter-discussion-forum/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The rumblings gather apace on model thread....will it won't it..... some models say yes, anomalies say not really but something is different,

 

BFTP

[Yarmy]

The rumblings gather apace on model thread....will it won't it..... some models say yes, anomalies say not really but something is different,

 

BFTP

Sober and realistic post from Chiono on the Strat thread though. I suspect we'll hover around average for a few weeks. After that, who knows.

[IanR]

Except for you and Thunderbolt, I have genuinely never met another living soul who professes to enjoy damp, sunless weather. This recent spell of weather is what gives our climate its dreary and depressing reputation, and why 700,000 Brits call Spain home..

Seriously - I use an international weather forum and our climate is without a doubt the most unpopular around. It's quite possibly the dullest place in the world that is significantly populated. Even hot weather lovers would rather spend a winter in Boston US than Boston UK.

Nothing beautiful about it mate. You're in the minority here.

Oh; and we are on our 7th consecutive sunless day - so this weather isn't normal at all. It's not normal to go 7 days without seeing the sun.

relentless mild and dull is still better then relentless cold and dull, nothing beautiful about that either, yes I prefer sunny weather/ stormy weather, 

 

why do people think cold is always sunny in winter / autumn,  its not,  easterlies anyone,  yes we all know they bring cold featureless dull stratus leaden skies for days, with cold drizzle to add to the misery, the current weather is a joy compared to that, which is saying something 

[mushymanrob]

One thing I find rather strange is how anyone who cheers on very mild conditions/outputs in November is apparently trolling/posting to get a reaction, yet let's be honest, how many people would be cheering if we had an exceptionally cold start to May?

 

 

fair point, lets face it not many would, except for 'left over coldies' and they would/have been regarded as trolls.

im with you though on disliking cold.

 

It's not actually mate. Temperatures of 14-18C under thick cloud with rain is pretty 'good' going for November. I'd expect these temperatures from such a setup in late September / early October. This time last November brought more traditional November weather with temperatures nearer the 8-13C mark. 

 

 

 

i knew id be picked up on the temps! lol fair play, i accept the temps are unseasonally high, but take that out the equasion and the current regime is exactly what id expect and indeed like about november.

 

Nothing beautiful about it mate. You're in the minority here.

 

 

nothing beautiful about dramatic cloudy skies? leaves blowing in the wind? well i think youre missing out!   its not as if its a stratus-fest featureless affair.

looking at the model outputs its looking like ill be pretty content whilst 'the majority' of you will be lamenting a largely sunless week ahead! ok, in summer i wouldnt be so gleeful about it, but its the heart of autumn and as such IMHO its great!

anything but frost.

[rain_shadow]

fair point, lets face it not many would, except for 'left over coldies' and they would/have been regarded as trolls.

im with you though on disliking cold.

 

 

i knew id be picked up on the temps! lol fair play, i accept the temps are unseasonally high, but take that out the equasion and the current regime is exactly what id expect and indeed like about november.

 

 

nothing beautiful about dramatic cloudy skies? leaves blowing in the wind? well i think youre missing out!   its not as if its a stratus-fest featureless affair.

looking at the model outputs its looking like ill be pretty content whilst 'the majority' of you will be lamenting a largely sunless week ahead! ok, in summer i wouldnt be so gleeful about it, but its the heart of autumn and as such IMHO its great!

anything but frost.

 

yes, nothing is ugly in nature including heavy grey skies as all clouds are unique so they are all interesting but certainly for most people, it does not look beautiful if they last a week and don't feel dramatic at all if it is painted homogeneous grey stratus (even if it is "expected" in November) and not a bubbling cumulonimbus or at least stratocumulus - maybe you don't have to work outdoors all day (sorry if I'm wrong)...But to keep it in the right thread, I wanted to see sunny outlook on the models but I could not find it 

Edited November 7, 2015 by skyboy

[seaside 60]

fair point, lets face it not many would, except for 'left over coldies' and they would/have been regarded as trolls.

im with you though on disliking cold.

 

 

i knew id be picked up on the temps! lol fair play, i accept the temps are unseasonally high, but take that out the equasion and the current regime is exactly what id expect and indeed like about november.

 

 

nothing beautiful about dramatic cloudy skies? leaves blowing in the wind? well i think youre missing out!   its not as if its a stratus-fest featureless affair.

looking at the model outputs its looking like ill be pretty content whilst 'the majority' of you will be lamenting a largely sunless week ahead! ok, in summer i wouldnt be so gleeful about it, but its the heart of autumn and as such IMHO its great!

anything but frost.

I can understand people not liking cold.

However to wake up and see everything covered in frost is a beautiful site.

[Polar Maritime]

As per frequent requests..Can we please keep discussion in here loosely based around the Models.

 

Maybe someone would like to open a 'personal weather preference' thread to continue discussing the above. 

 

Thanks, PM.

Edited November 7, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Paul]

And as if by magic - weather likes and dislikes thread now running

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84367-what-are-your-weather-likes-and-dislikes-at-this-time-of-year/

[seaside 60]

:D

Well done that man.

[Frosty.]

The met office for the very first time this autumn are saying there is a possibility of cold intervals and wintry showers in the north within a very unsettled pattern..very good news! I'm completely cheesed off with this very mild autumn, hope we get some early wintry surprises during the second half of november, some of the model output are certainly hinting that.

Edited November 7, 2015 by Frosty.

[interested & confused]

I've not looked to see how much we've actually had....but the allotment was sodden this morning. Much too wet to dig

[Methuselah]

You could try stirring it?

[Milhouse]

More very mild air on the way for next weekend if the GFS 12z is right

 

[Spikecollie]

More very mild air on the way for next weekend if the GFS 12z is right

 

Indeed. Over here in France, we are having record November temperatures. 26c here with me today in Limousin and I was out cycling in my shorts and vest top like a summer's day - just a very short one! I'm coming back to the UK on Monday week for a week, and I'd rather not have complete thermal shock! This is a bizarre autumn, but it has all happened before...

Edited November 7, 2015 by Spikecollie

[mountain shadow]

Early signs that this Winter will follow a standard El Nino pattern.

Other than brief topplers we can pretty much forget about a sustained cold spell until late January.

I see the GFS has finally dropped the phantom Northerly.

[tinybill]

just  looking  at the radar best to stay in bed!!

[markyo]

Early signs that this Winter will follow a standard El Nino pattern.

Other than brief topplers we can pretty much forget about a sustained cold spell until late January.

I see the GFS has finally dropped the phantom Northerly.

To early to come to any conclusion in my opinion,mother nature will always out fox us when it comes to predictions.

[snowblizzard]

Early signs that this Winter will follow a standard El Nino pattern.

Other than brief topplers we can pretty much forget about a sustained cold spell until late January.

I see the GFS has finally dropped the phantom Northerly.

Okay, the pattern is not looking favourable for cold into the UK at the moment but the situation can, and often does, change very suddenly!

Late January is a very long way off, I don't think anyone can call it that far ahead!

Edited November 8, 2015 by snowblizzard

[knocker]

There's a new game afoot called, 'who can cherry pick the best perturbation post T240'. First prize is a weekend for two in Oymyakon and a box of NW mars bars.

[Nouska]

There's a new game afoot called, 'who can cherry pick the best perturbation post T240'. First prize is a weekend for two in Oymyakon and a box of NW mars bars.

 

May I recommend .....

 

[knocker]

Oh indeed. Thankyou

[Methuselah]

There's a new game afoot called, 'who can cherry pick the best perturbation post T240'. First prize is a weekend for two in Oymyakon and a box of NW mars bars.

I'm sure there's something afoot, that the models are not quite 'seeing'?