Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Mair Snaw]

Reading Ian F's posts on the model thread, it looks like any hope of cold/snow into UK is over even before winter officially begins - devastated!

It would be worth you looking at the archive threads to see what the Meto/ Ian were thinking at this time last year and the years before for the coming winter and then see how them winters went... i certainly would not be thinking about winter being over and i wouldnt be devastated yet...

[MR EXTREMES]

IDO pretty much the same if not worse than recent weather type.

but this is to be expected with such a powerful nino and higher solar output.

 

although -7 uppers are not to shabby for more northern areas.

in all honesty theres not a huge difference to last winter and at first it seemed the models toyed with the idea of northern blocking but as the vortex is modelled to gain strength the models are dropping the ideas of any kind of northern blocking.

 

and considering most long range models also predict a 1c global rise its not suprising that most if not nearly all ideas of cold blocked winter are all but a story for the daily express.

 

lots of talk of a srat warming event maybe this winter but even that is just guess work and if you guess enough eventually were come up trumps.

 

ive most cetainly wrote of this winter and i dont care much for a cold march or april.

 

so cant wait for the next real dip in solar activity but i suspect we might need to wait a year or two to see how that pans out.

 

but theres certainly some interest for cold into the far north into scotland with some wintry weather much like last winter.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015111100/ECM1-240.GIF?11-12

 

ecm typical rolling zonal plus strong euro heights windy at times cooler mild in the south,

cold at times futher north.

 

gefs pretty close to the ecm ideas some impressive mild temps at times here in the south.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015111100/gens-0-1-180.png

 

I do wish there was more to ramp about although knockers daffs will be happy if not bit soggy at times.

 

interesting that ian f post on the uk met long range model surely if the pv were to be to our north east wont that produce more possible northerlies and north easterlies?

[Paul]

Seasonal models are seasonal models, it doesn't matter if it's the CFS, ECM or whatever - they all have their good and bad moments, and seldom utterly nail a season. It's certainly not worth getting despondent about an entire Winter based on what a seasonal model is pointing at in mid-November. 

 

As an example this study concluded that the ECM seasonal forecasts for Winter can be considered 'marginally useful' for temperature and either marginally useful or not useful for rainfall in this part of the world. 

http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/11/96/20131162

[johnholmes]

blimey Paul I doubt any of us will READ that thoroughly. I confess to a quick skim and arrive at your conclusions, re marginally useful for Europe for temperatures.

[Paul]

blimey Paul I doubt any of us will READ that thoroughly. I confess to a quick skim and arrive at your conclusions, re marginally useful for Europe for temperatures.

 

Same here, quick skim and a look at the pictures

[fergieweather]

Important, given some of the more bizarre reactions posted lately:

In posting any snippets re seasonal output, I'm merely reflecting just that: the output. This is NOT the same as posting a prognosis.

Seasonal models are not like other operational NWP. They are a guide, yes. But they are not infallible. Moreover, as UKMO have repeatedly stressed, whilst pointers may lean towards milder/wetter/windier conditions into at least 1st half of winter, this does NOT preclude either colder spells nor does it preclude the minority probabilities (ie from tercile categories) becoming reality. It's all about probabilities, NOT deterministic forecasting. The latter is the sort of la-la-land espoused by Madden et al into longer range and it has zero scientific underpinning.

So, yes: EC and most GloSea5 members retain strong westerly mobility to early Dec. However, a few GloSea5 members become anticyclonic by early Dec. Whilst not currently favoured as outcome, it does show that we might see changes ahead, but it'll take a mammoth change in pattern to accomplish that by early next month.

Folk writing-off all winter just need to calm down. Winter hasn't even started yet!!

[Hocus Pocus]

Important, given some of the more bizarre reactions posted lately:

In posting any snippets re seasonal output, I'm merely reflecting just that: the output. This is NOT the same as posting a prognosis.

Seasonal models are not like other operational NWP. They are a guide, yes. But they are not infallible. Moreover, as UKMO have repeatedly stressed, whilst pointers may lean towards milder/wetter/windier conditions into at least 1st half of winter, this does NOT preclude either colder spells nor does it preclude the minority probabilities (ie from tercile categories) becoming reality. It's all about probabilities, NOT deterministic forecasting. The latter is the sort of la-la-land espoused by Madden et al into longer range and it has zero scientific underpinning.

So, yes: EC and most GloSea5 members retain strong westerly mobility to early Dec. However, a few GloSea5 members become anticyclonic by early Dec. Whilst not currently favoured as outcome, it does show that we might see changes ahead, but it'll take a mammoth change in pattern to accomplish that by early next month.

Folk writing-off all winter just need to calm down. Winter hasn't even started yet!!

Unfortunately Ian you'd have noticed over the years the number of members who are reactionary to every model output and take little on board when told then above year in year out.

[Northern Sky]

I really like the ECM run this morning - changing air masses but in general a goodbye to the ridiculously mild temps. Plenty of wind and rain and it will feel chilly especially after the last few weeks. All in all great Autumnal weather.

[jgbgt]

I'd be "seriously worried" if i was seriously worried about weather model outputs and what they are showing at any time.

 

Ha, Very true, really is an issue, I've not sought help,  there nothing big happening this winter for me, only my wife having our first child with due date at 22nd December.

 

I am not a believer in gut feels, but I hope that the pattern does change soon, if the cold pool stays cold, storms may start to slide more southerly rather than deepen and turn NW?

 

JG

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Important, given some of the more bizarre reactions posted lately:

In posting any snippets re seasonal output, I'm merely reflecting just that: the output. This is NOT the same as posting a prognosis.

Seasonal models are not like other operational NWP. They are a guide, yes. But they are not infallible. Moreover, as UKMO have repeatedly stressed, whilst pointers may lean towards milder/wetter/windier conditions into at least 1st half of winter, this does NOT preclude either colder spells nor does it preclude the minority probabilities (ie from tercile categories) becoming reality. It's all about probabilities, NOT deterministic forecasting. The latter is the sort of la-la-land espoused by Madden et al into longer range and it has zero scientific underpinning.

So, yes: EC and most GloSea5 members retain strong westerly mobility to early Dec. However, a few GloSea5 members become anticyclonic by early Dec. Whilst not currently favoured as outcome, it does show that we might see changes ahead, but it'll take a mammoth change in pattern to accomplish that by early next month.

Folk writing-off all winter just need to calm down. Winter hasn't even started yet!!

 

 

If you don't mind, Ian, I'd like to copy your post in order to quote it (fully-attributed to yourself, of course) when other get a bit OTT.

[fergieweather]

If you don't mind, Ian, I'd like to copy your post in order to quote it (fully-attributed to yourself, of course) when other get a bit OTT.

Note also latest change of emphasis in latest UKMO assessment (see my laSt tweets re this) incorporating higher incidence of (short-lived) colder spells starting to appear more reliably in M-R output, as per latest EC ENS etc...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Note also latest change of emphasis in latest UKMO assessment (see my laSt tweets re this) incorporating higher incidence of (short-lived) colder spells starting to appear more reliably in M-R output, as per latest EC ENS etc...

Thanks Ian.  I'm not that good at interpreting model outputs, but I know who to listen to on here in order to have a balanced view, and that was certainly noted.

[Mair Snaw]

Note also latest change of emphasis in latest UKMO assessment (see my laSt tweets re this) incorporating higher incidence of (short-lived) colder spells starting to appear more reliably in M-R output, as per latest EC ENS etc...

Short lived meaning 48-72 hours??

[nick sussex]

Short lived meaning 48-72 hours??

Thats good for the UK! lol But reading between the lines any colder snaps will come without any proper blocking, perhaps a northerly toppler or something PM type.

[Mair Snaw]

Thats good for the UK! lol But reading between the lines any colder snaps will come without any proper blocking, perhaps a northerly toppler or something PM type.

i would take that.... a few PM blast gave me a good number of snowfalls last winter... its difficult to get any real deep long lasting cold to the UK, so i will take what we can get.... elevation helps for me i guess and some members here wont get anything from such set ups when some of us do well... as ever there will be some saying this is rubbish and some will be saying not IMBY.... still very early to be writing off winter as some have a full 3 weeks before its even here... if it was mid Feb and it was still like this then maybe...

[tight isobar]

Short/mid term prognosis

Via ANY model'

Should be the focus....

In such a. El_nino state as situ.

All possibilties are on the table further down The avenue.!!!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Prolonged cold and snow (other than in exceptional years such as 2010/11 or 2012/13) is unlikely in my part of the country before the New Year.  At present, all I want is more seasonal temperatures and some polar maritime air to give a few more bright days, as we're having so far today.

Edited November 11, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheforecaster

[Nouska]

For those wanting a jog down model memory lane, the in depth model discussion has been archived - it starts December 2009. Page 26 onwards for November 2010.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/

 

Meteociel has continuous model archive in the same mouse-over format as the current output.

 

From 1/10/10     http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=11&hour=0&year=2010&map=0&mode=2

[BlueHedgehog074]

While the models aren't showing much in the way of super cold and blocked conditions (bit too early yet really) do feel they are starting to improve a little bit with regards to some chillier weather prospects with some models, such as the ECMWF and GFS, showing some cold zonality-like conditions in the FI(ish) range. Again, nothing mega chilly and Northern areas would still be the best placed for these setups. But I think even if no real UK-wide cold conditions appear before Christmas it's not the end of the world (even though I know some are really eager to see that first flake of Autumn/Winter. It may just be one of the Winter's that's a bit of a slow burner, particularly if those EL Niño conditions are having a big part in it. Getting constant Northern blocking with long spells of cold and freezing weather for the UK is certainly very tricky anyway. Usually, Southern areas at least, don't get there first snowfall until around Christmas time, so not worth becoming too jittery about how this Winter could go at the moment.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Short lived meaning 48-72 hours??

Meaning no major blocking.   That for me is a real nice update from Fergie whom, to re-iterate, has NOT written winter off.

 

 

 

 

BFTP

[stainesbloke]

How can winter be written off when it's still nearly 3 weeks away from even starting?! Some completely ridiculous reactions on here sometimes, quite amusing if not slightly worrying (what happens to these people when something actually important goes wrong?!)

Looks like it will cool down to more seasonal temperatures but with an Atlantic dominance for the foreseeable....quite normal for November/early December.

[Mair Snaw]

Meaning no major blocking.   That for me is a real nice update from Fergie whom, to re-iterate, has NOT written winter off.

 

 

 

 

BFTP

i was asking about the shortness of the cold spells Ian had mentioned... and i did not say he had written off winter..

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

i was asking about the shortness of the cold spells Ian had mentioned... and i did not say he had written off winter..

 

How short is short, though?

[Hocus Pocus]

How short is short, though?

judging by the mobile westerly set up I'd say 24-48 hrs before the next pulse of TM air takes hold.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

judging by the mobile westerly set up I'd say 24-48 hrs before the next pulse of TM air takes hold.

 

Indeed - just wondering what "bigsnow" had in mind - his 'short' might not be the same as mine.