Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[MP-R]

I've been on this site for 10 years or so. Yet I am still surprised by the amount of personal digs at folk. Heavens above we all came on here, I think, to start with because we love talking about the weather. It would be a deadly dull world if we all liked or disliked exactly the same things, weather or anything else. It IS going to get colder, by next weekend, some folk will see snow falling, some lucky ones (assuming you want this) will see snow lying. How long it will last is not yet clear. So why not enjoy and respect each other for not having the same views?

 

I'm just glad it's finally about to turn colder with the prospect of being able to wear a coat and perhaps wake up to a few frosts. If there is snow then that's a bonus really for November. Of course surprises do happen e.g. 04th November 2012 but just to get rid of this putrid southwesterly will be very welcomed from me. 

[Guest]

Umm I was talking about the week ahead video forecast....

yes the updated 0130 issue has no wording such as greenland suggests.

Time again will tell whether the supposed quote is correct or made up!

Edited November 15, 2015 by Greenlandblock
To move discussion on.

[dbaloo]

John is a very experienced and knowledgeable poster within netweather......i personally learn a lot from his posts aswell as other members here.

 

let's all play nicely ladies and gentlemen....its going to be a long winter in these threads if we start off on the wrong foot this early in the season

[marksiwnc]

Ummm try watching the week ahead video forecast....

Do you have a link to it please so I can watch thanks

[Paul]

Umm, I'm guessing some people have yet to read the posting guide for this part of the forum, or if they have they're just looking for an excuse to get themselves stopped from posting. 

 

Personal digs at people are not acceptable - it really is that straight forward, so please take it on board. 

 

These are the guidelines we've written to help everyone:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84360-the-model-thread-survival-guide-for-winter-201516-please-read/

 

(Oh and there's also a thread for discussing weather preferences here : https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84367-what-are-your-weather-likes-and-dislikes-at-this-time-of-year/)

[Guest]

Do you have a link to it please so I can watch thanks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/34820837 

Here you go mate

Edited November 15, 2015 by Greenlandblock

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks like a cold Fri to Sun coming up, with snow for usual areas, Scotland, Northern England, maybe to low levels, but certainly increasing signs of turning milder in all areas on Mon 23rd, still autumn though, just hope for 3 sunny days here before Monday

[Ravelin]

but certainly increasing signs of turning milder in all areas on Mon 23rd, still autumn though, just hope for 3 sunny days here before Monday

Maybe, maybe not. The latest ECM has sub zero uppers across the UK out to the end of the run (Wed), and with high pressure over the country I doubt it will feel 'mild'. .

[Allseasons-Si]

Very happy with that ECM, we don't quite get the Scandi high at T240hrs but its output is similar to the 00hrs and I think a west Scandi high/ east Greenland high combo could be on the cards. Not sure whether we have a name for that yet!

 

 

 

A big fat long Steve murr sausage?

[summer blizzard]

Euro an extremely good run with the winds veering NNE at days 7 and 8. We then see a probable inversion keeping things cold to end.

 

 

GFS has a low at day 8 overcoming the cold air however in late FI we do see cold air coming back..

 

[Relativistic]

Christ, this place is going nuts. Great to see so many cracking charts. Here we come Winter!!

[cheshire snow]

looks like a cold Fri to Sun coming up, with snow for usual areas, Scotland, Northern England, maybe to low levels, but certainly increasing signs of turning milder in all areas on Mon 23rd, still autumn though, just hope for 3 sunny days here before Monday

When you say turning milder,i presume you mean the seasonal

Norm,and not the balmy 16c of today,just want to clarify for

The benefit of newer members.

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

When you say turning milder,i presume you mean the seasonal

Norm,and not the balmy 16c of today,just want to clarify for

The benefit of newer members.

C.S

 

Yeah, generally for weather setup, winter weather mode this year arrives on Friday 20th Nov, will be no more 'super mild' days after this date this year

 

but yes cold fri to sun, then turning milder 'winter speaking' on Monday 23rd bringing a thaw to Scotland, probably reaching 10C in the south

[cyclonic happiness]

Seems like the GFS is leading us up the garden path again. The cold spell is now shortened to a cold snap, which looks like it'll topple pretty quickly.  Wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't downgraded out of existence in the next couple of days.

 

Still, if we see snow, it'll be a bonus, seeing as it's not even winter yet. Am I expecting too much?

[mushymanrob]

Come on Mushy, it's been mild, but the weather has hardly been "nice", has it? I don't know about your location, but mine has seen copious amounts of rain and very little sunshine. All in all very miserable.

Whilst some looking for cold may associate anything mild with poor conditions (which obviously isn't always true) the inverse is often seen from those looking for mild when talking about the cold.

You, like me, work outdoors, right? Surely you'd occasionally take a cool/cold dry spell over a mild and wet one? I would every time, but my preferences are obviously different.

Anyway, some kind of change is looking more certain, with potentially much colder conditions from the weekend onwards. To what extent and how long it lasts is up for debate.

Truth be told, I'd take anything drier with a bit of sunshine.

ive really enjoyed the weather this month so far, we dodged most of last weeks rain which was to our north, it was warm and dry. but i like the mild unsettled weather at this time of the year - it can stop like this all winter for me! so from my pov - it is nice.

however after what appears to be a brief cold snap, more mobile, unsettled weather looks set, although not quite as mild.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Seems like the GFS is leading us up the garden path again. The cold spell is now shortened to a cold snap, which looks like it'll topple pretty quickly.  Wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't downgraded out of existence in the next couple of days.

 

Still, if we see snow, it'll be a bonus, seeing as it's not even winter yet. Am I expecting too much?

 

UKMO still the worst outcome in terms of cold and snow for IMBY , after being on here for 9 years now I've learnt to contain my excitement well untill snow possibilities are in the NMM 72 hour range, even in that time it can go pear shaped.

[Mark Parsons]

UKMO still the worst outcome in terms of cold and snow for IMBY , after being on here for 9 years now I've learnt to contain my excitement well untill snow possibilities are in the NMM 72 hour range, even in that time it can go pear shaped.

Have to agree with your sentiments on this vizzy, I don't think many learn from experience how often these charts seldom come to total fruition and watered down.

[MP-R]

Bit of a downgrade overnight but still looking cold at the weekend with another chilly northwesterly showing to kick in by next Wednesday. It's going to be a topsy turvy few days on the models and each run shouldn't be taken as gospel. What's guaranteed is a cold snap at the weekend whether cyclonic or more anticyclonic, the detail will change however so I think trends are the best thing to go by.

 

For certain, Thursday will be the last widespread really mild day for a while.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Bit of a downgrade overnight but still looking cold at the weekend with another chilly northwesterly showing to kick in by next Wednesday. It's going to be a topsy turvy few days on the models and each run shouldn't be taken as gospel. What's guaranteed is a cold snap at the weekend whether cyclonic or more anticyclonic, the detail will change however so I think trends are the best thing to go by.

 

For certain, Thursday will be the last widespread really mild day for a while.

 

I think away from North/West/East coasts with elevation it will mainly be a anticyclonic weekend with bright sunshine and cold days/nights unless we can get some disturbances in the flow to enhance snowfall potential.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like just a cold dry weekend now really. At least it will be sunnier but I really don't like cold with no real reward for it I.e snow. The ukmo always produces more average looking charts but alas, usually the ones closer to reality sadly.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Looks like just a cold dry weekend now really. At least it will be sunnier but I really don't like cold with no real reward for it I.e snow. The ukmo always produces more average looking charts but alas, usually the ones closer to reality sadly.

 

A much better 6z GFS this morning which has a disturbance running down the UK on Saturday evening and the colder uppers lasting longer into Monday. Will have to see how the OP falls within the ensembles but certainly an upgrade. All post 120 hrs tho.....

[IanR]

ive really enjoyed the weather this month so far, we dodged most of last weeks rain which was to our north, it was warm and dry. but i like the mild unsettled weather at this time of the year - it can stop like this all winter for me! so from my pov - it is nice.

however after what appears to be a brief cold snap, more mobile, unsettled weather looks set, although not quite as mild.

me  too, enjoyed the wind and rain after the dull cloudy stagnent stuff earlier this month, the air qaulity has been refreshing and clear in the wind, and there has been a few warm sunny days with the mild too,  a good spell!

 

what I DONT want is cold cloudy easterlies no  no  no ,  encouraging that the cold is downgrading a little

[knocker]

The METO take on this doesn't seem a million miles from the gfs

 

[MP-R]

I think away from North/West/East coasts with elevation it will mainly be a anticyclonic weekend with bright sunshine and cold days/nights unless we can get some disturbances in the flow to enhance snowfall potential.

 

It's certainly looking that way. I think a more anticyclonic cold period was more on the cards anyway after Saturday; the question was how long it would take for the low to clear eastwards after Friday. I was only really interested in the overlap of precipitation and uppers less than -6 early Saturday as any showers following would chiefly hug the coasts (especially W Wales and SW England in closest proximity to myself). 

 

Disturbances will likely be last minute affairs and cause surprises. Being November, timing will be everything so early morning with sufficiently cold uppers will be favourite. The GFS at least keeps opportunities open a bit longer on Saturday, sifting east by Sunday, with a milder blip next Tuesday before another coldish blast (this time from the northwest) by Wednesday. After that is anyone's guess and it looks like the mild synoptics are the ones in FI now.

[throwoff]

If the GFS for day 6 comes true I will eat my hat live on webcam for anyone on NW to tune in and see.