Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[mushymanrob]

I've already said what makes me happy - some sunshine! The type of weather we had two days ago - 14C, mostly sunny. If cloudy, windy weather is considered seasonable then no, I'm not happy.

cloudy windy weather in autumn is surely seasonal. but im not sure why you wouldnt be happy with seasonal, surely its expected? looking at the current outputs (apart from sunday) it doesnt look very good for you!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

surely balmy next week, England and Wales, especially start of week, looks like a tropical southerly, 22-25C in favoured spots? GFS though not having it

 

if it was summer, very balmy 33C likely

[Liam J]

Some nice charts across some of this evenings outputs, any unsettled weather looks to be short lived once again as high pressure looks to be the dominant force, especially on the ECM. Shame this couldn't have happened during the summer months!! Looks like staying on the milder side for the time of year as well but any high pressure at this time of year would lead to some frost/fog overnight in places, but given the flip flop nature of the models of late I wouldn't be too confident just yet with what is currently being shown for next week... 

[cheese]

Some sun would be nice.

[cheese]

cloudy windy weather in autumn is surely seasonal. but im not sure why you wouldnt be happy with seasonal, surely its expected? looking at the current outputs (apart from sunday) it doesnt look very good for you!

Not really - here, April and October are nearly equal in terms of sun, when measured in % terms, so I don't expect an entire week to average about 1 hour of sun a day. That's very bad. The outlook isn't much better.

In any case, just because something is seasonal, doesn't mean you're going to be happy about it. That's broken thinking.

Edited October 23, 2015 by cheese

[summer blizzard]

While i don't mind this stagnant Scandi High setup i really do wish we could get rid of it and shift the warm uppers out of Europe for a few days before it comes back to make the most of it from a cold point of view.

[Scorcher]

While i don't mind this stagnant Scandi High setup i really do wish we could get rid of it and shift the warm uppers out of Europe for a few days before it comes back to make the most of it from a cold point of view.

 

Not going to happen next week by the looks of it. A lovely warm flow off the continent will leave it feeling positively balmy for most.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i wish, the likely result is low pressure, Atlantic air, wind and rain, FI on ECM yesterdays 12Z no way, not possible early Nov

[Liam J]

Following on from last nights run the ECM still keen on some very mild weather as we start November, high pressure and a SE'ly continental feed of air.

 

And I thought my BBQ was in hibernation until next year.. 

 

 

 

 

 

[mushymanrob]

In any case, just because something is seasonal, doesn't mean you're going to be happy about it. That's broken thinking.

 

.... or be unhappy about it!

which was my point..

[Evening thunder]

Wouldn't be surprised if those ECM charts were mainly stagnant and cloudy once more.

 

Apparently we are seeing more interesting model watching than the last few years, shame it's not translating to more interesting weather. 

[summer blizzard]

Word of warning.. We had strong blocking over and east in Nov 11.. We never got anywhere untuk early Feb.

[cheese]

.... or be unhappy about it!

which was my point..

The British climate causes a lot of people to be unhappy. This is why people move to Spain.

[cyclonic happiness]

Word of warning.. We had strong blocking over and east in Nov 11.. We never got anywhere untuk early Feb.

you need one more post for 15k!!!

[Hotspur62]

Have enjoyed a reasonable Summer down here but must admit I enjoy the winter months more and the thought of snow allowing me to be a "big kid" again!!. Whilst the last  2 winters have been disappointing down here with very little snow I am quietly confident about the UKs chances of some "significant" snowfall this winter.THere are some signals for a cold winter but also some signals for  mild winter but I feel that the way the El Nino has formed and looks set to continue during the winter months as well as the "cooler North Atlantic" enhances our chances of some more pronounced "cold spells". There will obviously be milder spells as well, this is the UK after all,but I think this will be a winter where snow lovers will have a lot to smile about. I know some are anxious on the Model thread already about the Atlantic bulldozing through already but we are only on the 24th October so don't get too hung up about that, we have the next 5 months to enjoy or endure depending on you weather preference.

 

I for one am looking forward to this winter and will continue to learn from experts like Tamara, Nick Sussex and Steve Murr (there are too many too mention!!) in the coming months that make this forum so enjoyable so lets enjoy the ride together and lets hope that we could have a repeat of the 1962/63 winter lol!!       

[Spikecollie]

As discussed in the MOD, it's looking like above average temperatures for the next 10 days or so over here in Limousin - up to low 20s, and even the odd thunderstorm is being suggested for next week!

[markyo]

Loving these cooler mornings,perfect for getting out on a sunday morning walk,so much better than the heat and humidity of summer,everything smells and feels so much fresher,makes you want to get out and about!

[knocker]

Grand morning here so I went for my usual stroll around the country park. good to see the early dafs are poking up their heads and sniffing the coffee. The only downside I was nearly trampled underfoot by a bunch of about twenty joggers of various ages clutching water bottles and the odd oxygen cylinder. Fortunately tranquility was soon restored.

[Milhouse]

Grand morning here so I went for my usual stroll around the country park. good to see the early dafs are poking up their heads and sniffing the coffee. The only downside I was nearly trampled underfoot by a bunch of about twenty joggers of various ages clutching water bottles and the odd oxygen cylinder. Fortunately tranquility was soon restored.

 

Its been a grand Autumn for me. Not usually a fan of the season but its been near perfection so far. So many calm and pleasant days for getting out and about. The only blot on the picture has been that awful dull easterly spell a week ago. Looking ahead the models are looking good as far as im concerned.

[mushymanrob]

awful autumn.... wet every morning either with rain or dew.

nice outlook this morning, with no sign of any nasty cold weather in the next 10 days.... good! i hate frosts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS 00z showing a huge Continental/Scandi block well into FI......personally I like that idea

 

BFTP

[I remember Atlantic 252]

awful autumn.... wet every morning either with rain or dew.

nice outlook this morning, with no sign of any nasty cold weather in the next 10 days.... good! i hate frosts.

 

Yeah, looks good on GFS for dry warm start to Nov, 17C being modeled balmy southerly, the weather I want (at least for now) low after low is what I don't want any times of the year, a month from now though, cold/frost snow is what I want, but would accept dry/mild

[MP-R]

A few comments leading towards doom and gloom in the MO thread worrying about the strength of the PV and heights over Europe vis a vis 2010. Don't know about anyone else but I'm not keen on winter starting in November and finishing a month later. Personally would much rather be seeing Atlantic charts into November with the jet moving progressively southwards alongside the PV moving towards Siberia so that cold synoptics can be realised into December and January. Premature cold synoptics are more a hindrance than anything.

 

After a chilly start this morning it certainly looks like a mild final week of October (how many times has this happened over the years?!) with every chance of 16-20C in the opening days of November, subject to changes nearer the time of course.

[knocker]

There appears to be a growing consensus that 'toppling ridges' be added to the swear filter.

[Snowmad79]

A few comments leading towards doom and gloom in the MO thread worrying about the strength of the PV and heights over Europe vis a vis 2010. Don't know about anyone else but I'm not keen on winter starting in November and finishing a month later. Personally would much rather be seeing Atlantic charts into November with the jet moving progressively southwards alongside the PV moving towards Siberia so that cold synoptics can be realised into December and January. Premature cold synoptics are more a hindrance than anything.

 

After a chilly start this morning it certainly looks like a mild final week of October (how many times has this happened over the years?!) with every chance of 16-20C in the opening days of November, subject to changes nearer the time of course.

 

It's not about doom and gloom, It's about the reality of how previous winters panned out after the transition from Autumn to winter.  I would struggle to name any winters good for cold where HP dominated throughout Autumn with a stagnant Euro high towards the end into winter.

 

Doom and gloom would be declaring winter over before its started by saying the PV is already too strong and that 65% of all EL Nino winters were a disaster for UK in terms of Snowy weather Personally I'm going for Largely Cold and Dry with the occasional snowfests in places.