Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[solarcycle]

When was the last time we saw a true Bartlett Winter here in UK anyone...???

 

Not sure but I wouldn't mind seeing your namesake this year!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

If someone invented a method of NWP tomorrow that had 100% verification would you be pleased or disappointed that some of the fun of uncertainty had gone out of the business?

 

On one hand it would be wonderful to know 100% what is going to happen in a said location, but on the other, where is the fun? I like the surprise that the weather offers us here in the UK and I think the majority of the posters here, well maybe a few lol, enjoy the experience too If weather was predictable there would be no progression into its research and I'd doubt there would be a huge interest in the area, apart from those who are totally dedicated to the meteorological field  

[summer blizzard]

It may be FI but it gets the chills going (in a good way)..

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

I don't agree tbh, but anyway - this is off topic, and I'm sure you'd have to agree that publicly digging at people in advance is not exactly going to help the team or the forum at large in keeping things peaceful...

...........as the title says it is the moan and banter thread. Yes picking and digging is a bit out of order so maybe another subforum can duly be created?

[solarcycle]

Just saw a gfs ensemble run with a sub zero minimum for London at the end of the run. Silly season approacheth!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Stunning FI from the GFS for winter fans. If only we were into Jan-Feb..

 

 

Stunning? disagree, not the sort of setup I want now

 

SUGAR! thought it was whiners thread, move it in there mods!

Edited September 26, 2015 by Ilovethesnow

[Mark Parsons]

The latest fax charts

Now if this were 2 months time..........

[knocker]

Breaking news

 

Cold northerly plunge delayed indefinately ................................coldies mortified  Perhaps time for a brief snatch of a famous Tremeloes song.

Edited September 27, 2015 by knocker

[Yarmy]

Doubt we'll see an OPI thread this year and it's probably just as well as this sort of thing would be causing minor palpitations:

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

its a shocker though Thunderbolt_, Monday looks a write off, belts of rain moving up

[Costa Del Fal]

It's becoming scarily predictable our climate.

January - mainly low pressure with rain. A brief NWly outbreak with a few wintry showers and some coastal thunderstorms.

February - similar to the above but becoming quieter.

March - mixed and often some Of the coldest weather seen now.

April - high pressure domination. Very sunny and often very pleasantly warm.

May - low pressure and cool.

June - not often very wet. Good sunshine levels but cool.

July - one brief heatwave and one evening of major thunderstorms. Otherwise cool and cloudy.

August - similar to July.

September - very similar to April.

October - early warmth then low pressure beginning to set in but some very mild even warm days occasionally.

November - high pressure spell with fog and frost at some point.

December - fairly unsettled but turning drier around Christmas. Mild.

Edited September 29, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's becoming scarily predictable our climate.

January - mainly low pressure with rain. A brief NWly outbreak with a few wintry showers and some coastal thunderstorms.

February - similar to the above but becoming quieter.

March - mixed and often some Of the coldest weather seen now.

April - high pressure domination. Very sunny and often very pleasantly warm.

May - low pressure and cool.

June - not often very wet. Good sunshine levels but cool.

July - one brief heatwave and one evening of major thunderstorms. Otherwise cool and cloudy.

August - similar to July.

September - very similar to April.

October - early warmth then low pressure beginning to set in but some very mild even warm days occasionally.

November - high pressure spell with fog and frost at some point.

December - fairly unsettled but turning drier around Christmas. Mild.

 

Would agree to a point, suppose going by location, would go for more of an Atlantic domination though, through all months, Jan seems accurate, Feb same as Jan, but milder usually

[cheese]

Nah, that's rubbish. I looked at the averages for the past 5 years here and Mar-Jul was warmer than the 30-year averages, while Dec-Feb were cooler*. September-Oct were warmer and August was cooler. So months like August have been disappointing but the rest of it is silly and exaggerated. Only April and October have warmed significantly - the rest are more or less the same as  they always have been.

 

 

*Yes, over the past 5 years winter has actually gotten colder. In December's case, 2010 was a major influence, but for Jan and Feb, there was no very cold month - just lots of cold months.

Edited September 29, 2015 by cheese

[MP-R]

Would agree to a point, suppose going by location, would go for more of an Atlantic domination though, through all months, Jan seems accurate, Feb same as Jan, but milder usually

 

Gotta disagree with you there I'm afraid - February is not often a stormy Atlantic month at all, yes there may be a spell or two of varying length but February is the winter month most likely to bring northerlies, easterlies or generally more continental weather. Equally December seems the most reliable month for stormy Atlantic weather AND cold, frosty anticyclonic weather. January is the one that messes about the most e.g. January 2012 had a bit of everything, January 2013 brought the best snow to most of that winter, January 2014 was pretty stormy throughout, January 2015 was often unsettled but mostly chilly/cold.

 

It's too simplistic to say that winter is mild and unsettled because, quite frankly, it isn't - we're not located in the Med. As has been said before, SSTs, wind direction etc. will determine what conditions we get. That's like saying our summers will always be humid cloudfests with long-fetch westerlies when in reality, very few summers are the same in all three months.

 

Anyway, regarding the models: settled for the rest of this week, unsettled for a good chunk of next week but signs of another settled spell in FI - the autumn variation continues with no single type of weather condition lasting too long to become boring. Love it!

[rain_shadow]

You know what, I prefer better SW winds with rain bands rather than this "nice weather high pressure" which can only give fog after a few days here which lifts to form useless grey low cloud (and most frustratingly you can see the brightness and fractions of blue skies in the odd holes all the time) - not a minute of sunshine here today so far; at least between the rain bands, there is proper sunshine... Of course, if this is our biggest issue in life, that is fine and all is relative, but still..

Edited October 1, 2015 by skyboy

[Singularity]

 

That +20*C 850hPa temperature anomaly over part of Canada at 00z today is just bonkers.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Singularity

[TSNWK]

Hehe.. Two of our winter big hitters have emerged from their summer slumber... To any newbies I give you Mucka for our early morning winter updates.. And nick Sussex who I have followed for at least 5 winters and who has taught me loads.

[cheese]

Hope the unsettled wearher is toned down. Looks dreadful.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hehe.. Two of our winter big hitters have emerged from their summer slumber... To any newbies I give you Mucka for our early morning winter updates.. And nick Sussex who I have followed for at least 5 winters and who has taught me loads.

 

Steve Murr next! i like the winter lovers on here.

Edited October 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Scorcher]

 

That +20*C 850hPa temperature anomaly over part of Canada at 00z today is just bonkers.

 

Yes chance of 30C apparently today at Fort McMurray in Northern Alberta- it's at a latitude of 56 degrees north. Similar to Dundee. Possibly up to 17C in Arviat which is on Hudson Bay at 61 degrees north as well- just to put that into context, the average October maximum temperature is -1C! The all time record for October is 13C...

[mushymanrob]

Steve Murr next! i like the winter lovers on here.

 

i dont like rampers/biased whichever way... their predictions no matter how elequently and apparently intelligently presented more often then not lead to frustration as they prove to be inaccurate.

realistic and unbiased posts are the ones that are proven time and time again to be most accurate. i never will understand why fantasy predictions are treated with such reverence. i understand that people like wintry weather, i understand that some people get excited at the prospect of wintry weather, i dont understand why people get excited over fantasy predictions - letting preference override common sense.

ill be reading what people like john, gibby, knocker and a few others post because i want to know what the weathers most likely to do, and not get wound up on some dead end fantasy illusion.

Edited October 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To emend quoted post.

[Polar Maritime]

And back to discussion loosely based around Models please, Not other members posting styles.

Thanks, PM.

[knocker]

ECMWF working on major "gamechanging" upgrade for early 2016 which will set stage for next gen NWP into 2020s. 9-km

[Evening thunder]

Hope the unsettled wearher is toned down. Looks dreadful.

 

This high has been lovely but can get a little boring after a while, as long as it doesn't end up cloudy for days I'm fine with it.

[mushymanrob]

nice to see a suggestion of high pressure returning later next week, heres hoping its cloudier/breezier because im sick of the dew!...

interesting cold plunge into central europe, lets hope it stays there.