Winter 2015/16

[cheeky_monkey]

somebody posted snow is what we all want...well au contraire..id like no snow..dry and mild would be lovely thanks,,anyway looks like im heading back to Calgary in January..so will back to those cold winters again     

[Methuselah]

Nice heads up from the big man himself

 

 

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi  7 mins7 minutes ago

Coldest mid-October in a century http://www.expatica.com/be/news/country-news/Flanders-Coldest-mid-October-in-a-century_511549.html â€¦ Oct 1975 strong la nina. Winter nw europe likely cold/snowy this year

This'll be his thirteenth winter forecast (that I've either read or heard)...Each year is going to be 'brutal', due to one set of 'building blocks' or other being in place - and, so far, with the noteworthy exceptions of 2009-10 and December 2010, 'brutality' has been almost non-existent. So, the obvious question is: Is Joe B making genuine forecasts or is he courting positive publicity?

[jvenge]

This'll be his thirteenth winter forecast (that I've either read or heard)...Each year is going to be 'brutal', due to one set of 'building blocks' or other being in place - and, so far, with the noteworthy exceptions of 2009-10 and December 2010, 'brutality' has been almost non-existent. So, the obvious question is: Is Joe B making genuine forecasts or is he courting positive publicity?

Are you sure you aren't misquoting? Any references to support your claims? I ask simply because he didn't use the word brutal in his post. Cold and snowy doesn't mean much :-)

[Methuselah]

Are you sure you aren't misquoting? Any references to support your claims? I ask simply because he didn't use the word brutal in his post. Cold and snowy doesn't mean much :-)

I saw him use the term 'brutal' on one of his TV appearances. I think? Apologies to him, if I imagined it!

[bobbydog]

Wonder If I'll need to purchase a set of winter tyres this year? Didn't really need them last year as the only snow/ice I had to drive on was on a trip to Aviemore for a few days in February.

i want a set of these-

[beng]

Joe Bxstardi certainly doesn't forecast cold or even brutal cold for NW Europe every year - I challenge anyone to post links supporting that claim. Joe does openly admit to being more interested in climate extremes.  I wish people would get their facts correct without potentially libeling someone - this guy is not James Madden.

[fergieweather]

almost certainly she will have been aware of Met O input to the BBC, via one of the forecasters, I would guess?

You're reading too much into it! The journalistic angle refers to energy suppliers basing likely demand on an averaged-out template, which would need re-visiting if any strong indicator emerged to suggest a more 'severe' winter. No such forecast exists from UKMO at present, nor is any pronouncement on D-J-F probabilities due to be issued until later this month. I assure you there's been no 'briefing' otherwise to BBC News colleagues.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Joe Bxstardi certainly doesn't forecast cold or even brutal cold for NW Europe every year - I challenge anyone to post links supporting that claim. Joe does openly admit to being more interested in climate extremes.  I wish people would get their facts correct without potentially libeling someone - this guy is not James Madden.

 

Agreed, I didn't see him mention anything about last winter (in Europe / UK) being harsh or cold or snowy. Although I may have just not seen it. I seem to recall him being fairly accurate with the winter of 09/10 and have tried to keep abreast of what he forecasts since. Madden'esque he is not and I for one hope is onto to something. 

[feb1991blizzard]

You're reading too much into it! The journalistic angle refers to energy suppliers , which would need rebasing likely demand on an averaged-out template-visiting if any strong indicator emerged to suggest a more 'severe' winter. No such forecast exists from UKMO at present, nor is any pronouncement on D-J-F probabilities due to be issued until later this month. I assure you there's been no 'briefing' otherwise to BBC News colleagues.

 

Sounds to me like the energy companies are concerned about themselves not being up to catering for every eventuality and maybe they are hoping for a mild winter as opposed to them actually having any reason to believe we have any strong signals for a severely cold one.

[tcc]

You're reading too much into it! The journalistic angle refers to energy suppliers basing likely demand on an averaged-out template, which would need re-visiting if any strong indicator emerged to suggest a more 'severe' winter. No such forecast exists from UKMO at present, nor is any pronouncement on D-J-F probabilities due to be issued until later this month. I assure you there's been no 'briefing' otherwise to BBC News colleagues.

 

Spoilsport!

[bluearmy]

Joe B rarely makes predictions outside the 'conus' on weatherbell.

If he refers to Europe, it's generally on the back of modelling showing something within the coming month.

I note that his thoughts for this winter are generally in line with the current meto model.

Like I said a day or so ago, his weatherbell predictions for the last two winters in the usa have been more than decent.

Stuff on Twitter - I would pay less attention to.

[Paul]

Wonder If I'll need to purchase a set of winter tyres this year? Didn't really need them last year as the only snow/ice I had to drive on was on a trip to Aviemore for a few days in February. 

 

I'll be getting mine fitted in a couple of weeks

[johnholmes]

You're reading too much into it! The journalistic angle refers to energy suppliers basing likely demand on an averaged-out template, which would need re-visiting if any strong indicator emerged to suggest a more 'severe' winter. No such forecast exists from UKMO at present, nor is any pronouncement on D-J-F probabilities due to be issued until later this month. I assure you there's been no 'briefing' otherwise to BBC News colleagues.

 

thanks for that Fergie, always good to get fact rather than fiction

[Paul]

Big News

After many years, the swear filter has finally been updated so it's possible to type Jo Bastardi without it getting in a tizz and changing it to Jo Laminate Floori! 

[johnholmes]

sad - the end of an era!

[Liam J]

i want a set of these-

20140731_125144.jpg

They're beasts! You must have a 4wd vehicle? 

 

I'll be getting mine fitted in a couple of weeks

I think I'll hold off for a while and see how things are shaping up late autumn. Don't want to buy a set too early and find that they are not needed... They're 235/40 tyres so not that cheap! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just like to share this post from Thunderbolt in the model Output moaning thread.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83902-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201516/?p=3270143

 

 

I Totally agree with him, this is a cracking chart for the end of the month, those stonking ridges pumping WAA up to the pole, lovely and sharp, maybe nibbling away at the strat vortex as well stopping it exerting too much influence, lets get some punches in early and the hopefully cumulative effect will mount up ready for the knockout blow of a massive split right the way down the atmosphere like a knife through butter in the middle of winter.

Edited October 15, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

See, southerlies aren't actually as bad as the coldies make them out to be.

 

They are terrible in the short term but can end up rewarding patience, there have been many occasions when brutal cold spells developed 150 or even less hours after a chart like that, not saying that will happen this time, its too early but I would rather have a chart like that than a massive PV to the North West, and Westerlies, Westerlies would be colder than that but the pattern would be more 'locked in' in that scenario.

[feb1991blizzard]

There's only one slight problem with it, just like the Easterlies posted in the aforementioned thread, I think you can guess what it is!!!!

[bobbydog]

They're beasts! You must have a 4wd vehicle? 

I think I'll hold off for a while and see how things are shaping up late autumn. Don't want to buy a set too early and find that they are not needed... They're 235/40 tyres so not that cheap!

land rover discovery 2. those are bf goodrich km2 tyres. (very expensive!) mine are 255 70 r16 - so big old lumps of rubber!

[knocker]

Big News

After many years, the swear filter has finally been updated so it's possible to type Jo Bastardi without it getting in a tizz and changing it to Jo Laminate Floori! 

 

Can you now include polar vortex then?

[feb1991blizzard]

And M.odern w1nter, I actually had a sarcastic signature once on that theme.

Edited October 15, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[cheese]

Is it the return of the large teapot?

 

Where's Ian Brown when you need him..

Edited October 15, 2015 by cheese

[bobbydog]

can we have it changed so that if you type "james madden" it comes out as "bull sh***er"?

[Mokidugway]

land rover discovery 2. those are bf goodrich km2 tyres. (very expensive!) mine are 255 70 r16 - so big old lumps of rubber!

tyres are so expensive ,just paid 1100 quid for 4 fitted and balanced on my merc ...