South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[seaside 60]

4 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sadly, the latest outputs are showing a blowtorch south-southwesterly for the 25th, with 2m temperature anomalies 7C or so above average.  Our daffodil-loving friend may be able to get his outdoor cooking apparatus set-up in his garden as he's been threatening to do! 

BY the spring they could have flowered 2 or 3 times lol.....

[seaside 60]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Well all I am going to say is what a grim outlook..

 

The jet well and truly fueling over weather in the run up to Christmas.. I warned people back in October and early November this would happen.. 

 

If wind and rain is what you like get set for it... It is all because of the extreme temperature contrast in the Atlantic between the 2 air masses..

Even boxing day and beyond so silly charts fueling some very deep lows heading are way.. Im starting to get a bit of De ju vu here..

 

And you believe that this will happen, that nothing can or will change.

Sorry but to be honest we haven't had that much rain down here, it could be different towards London way though.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

And you believe that this will happen, that nothing can or will change.

Sorry but to be honest we haven't had that much rain down here, it could be different towards London way though.

Nope I believe the entire region: London, SE & EA has had limited rainfall throughout the year? I know NW England has no need of significant rainfall but I think we do as our reservoirs are 'repleted' by winter rains. And I notice some get fixated to these mild charts once we're stuck in this mild onslaught and I feel it's unwise it will relent surely.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

9 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

And you believe that this will happen, that nothing can or will change.

Sorry but to be honest we haven't had that much rain down here, it could be different towards London way though.

I'm not saying it won't change, but have you not looked into the long range models? They are all predicting an above average temps this side of the new year.

Yes a short and futile attempt at cold looks like it may happen in the lead up to Christmas but nothing to get excited about.

Like I said before, I don't get my hopes up with these 1-2 day cold spells because there is always a pesky warm sector hanging around to spoil the show. In much rather wait for a proper pattern change and deep cold uppers that er enriched for days come down (one can dream)

As you mentioned, yes it's been pretty dry down here in the south the odd few hours of rain, wind more noticeable but nothing major. This is because of course we are much more influenced by the High pressure sitting below us.

But if we continue to see the pattern we are currently locked in then the Atlantic will continue to steam ahead.

Just a note to, it's not just the UK that has the current obsured temperatures, in fact the majority of Europe are seeing phenomenal temperatures. And it looks like it's going to get even warmer next week!!

Let's just hope Jan and Feb deliver the goods unlike the last few years.

But I don't hold up much hope to be honest with the waythings currently look on the long range.

[Rain123]

Been cloudy with occasional rain here. Boring...

[slater]

34 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I'm not saying it won't change, but have you not looked into the long range models? They are all predicting an above average temps this side of the new year.

Yes a short and futile attempt at cold looks like it may happen in the lead up to Christmas but nothing to get excited about.

Like I said before, I don't get my hopes up with these 1-2 day cold spells because there is always a pesky warm sector hanging around to spoil the show. In much rather wait for a proper pattern change and deep cold uppers that er enriched for days come down (one can dream)

As you mentioned, yes it's been pretty dry down here in the south the odd few hours of rain, wind more noticeable but nothing major. This is because of course we are much more influenced by the High pressure sitting below us.

But if we continue to see the pattern we are currently locked in then the Atlantic will continue to steam ahead.

Just a note to, it's not just the UK that has the current obsured temperatures, in fact the majority of Europe are seeing phenomenal temperatures. And it looks like it's going to get even warmer next week!!

Let's just hope Jan and Feb deliver the goods unlike the last few years.

But I don't hold up much hope to be honest with the waythings currently look on the long range.

Like I said earlier in week, the eastern side of USA are having major daily highs being broken, all time Dec records are due to be challenged this weekend with temps around 20c in New York, it's just crazy. 

[seaside 60]

As you say Surrey, next week could top temp wise something special,

I dont mind the warmth its the lack of sun I moan about

I do feel that temps will back down to more normal after that though.

Why is it that when its warm in New York its warm here and when its cold there its warm here, lol.....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Indeed, new York barmy temps El Nino playing games me thinks although there is still no real link between warmer winters and El Nino, perhaps the cooler Atlantic is it blame???

[Captain Shortwave]

A very slow clearance to sunshine this afternoon. Fairly mild again though.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

In the deepest of F.I what a mess

 

[Blessed Weather]

Awful day here (working on a new build house a few miles from where I live). I presume the front didn't clear south as quickly as anticipated because it was steady rain here for most of the day and from this morning's forecast I was expecting it to brighten up by this pm. When it did clear it was quite interesting though, with the back edge of the front very noticeable as a very straight line as it crept towards me, and then when it finally cleared the sun was setting and it gave a nice sunset. It's a bonus when you can find something of interest in the weather, even on a foul day!

Back edge of front in the distance  And finally, a nice sunset

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Awful day here (working on a new build house a few miles from where I live). I presume the front didn't clear south as quickly as anticipated because it was steady rain here for most of the day and from this morning's forecast I was expecting it to brighten up by this pm. When it did clear it was quite interesting though, with the back edge of the front very noticeable as a very straight line as it crept towards me, and then when it finally cleared the sun was setting and it gave a nice sunset. It's a bonus when you can find something of interest in the weather, even on a foul day!

Back edge of front in the distance  And finally, a nice sunset

Not an unusual set-up for a cold front.  Very good photos, by the way.

[Captain Shortwave]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Awful day here (working on a new build house a few miles from where I live). I presume the front didn't clear south as quickly as anticipated because it was steady rain here for most of the day and from this morning's forecast I was expecting it to brighten up by this pm. When it did clear it was quite interesting though, with the back edge of the front very noticeable as a very straight line as it crept towards me, and then when it finally cleared the sun was setting and it gave a nice sunset. It's a bonus when you can find something of interest in the weather, even on a foul day!

Back edge of front in the distance  And finally, a nice sunset

Up here the clearance was visible to the north even at sunrise but it took over half the day to actually reach here which was kind of depressing. Finally by mid afternoon the sun came out and you clearly see the frontal band to the south.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[NO LONGER POSTING]

No warning from the Met I don't think it really warrants one but hold on to your hats today peeps..

I been watching this little feature for a few days and all the GFS did was deepen it and increase wind speeds over the last few days, Sub zero and I also spoke about the very quick and large changes last night..

Can't rule out a few 60mph gusts further North of the region... But Typically 45-55mph gusts late this morning is when the winds will pick up and well into the afternoon.. between 3-9pm when the low is exiting is when I think we will see the strongest winds

 

A pretty tight "squeeze" on the southern flank of the low a few days back this was a mere breeze last night max gusts 40mph this morning XCweather wants up to 49mph at Heathrow..

 

 

 

Current obs @ 7am put the low very slightly further South, so the EURO 4 looks to be the one it will take

 

 

Rain won't or shouldn't be to much of an issue till much later when it looks like it just sits over us as the low pulls away nothing to worry about but patchy light rain..

 

EDIT: According to Metcheck it is called "Werner" lol

 

 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2015 by Surrey

[seaside 60]

Calm and cloudy.

Another depressing weekend coming up.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Calm and cloudy.

Another depressing weekend coming up.

Some potentially exciting is this.. Although I don't really see it happening..

 

[slater]

Another dull start to the day! This is really getting boring now, doesn't look any better for the week ahead either. Also never known this room to be so slow in mid December 

[Captain Shortwave]

Raining here already, another write off Saturday it is then 

Not a lot of rain forecast (10mm in the north of the region, less elsewhere), but just annoying to do anything outside.

 

Well it isn't a heating on weekend, more like a lights on at midday weekend, it is so dark here.

Edited December 12, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[Ben Lewis]

Another weekend - another mild damp grey muck weekend.. Doesn't feel cold and have to endure yet another very mild day!

Those crisp winter blue sky days = I'd kill for one of those right now! 

 

Sick & & tired of my days off (weekends) bloody raining all the time. 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2015 by Ben Lewis

[seaside 60]

59 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Another weekend - another mild damp grey muck weekend.. Doesn't feel cold and have to endure yet another very mild day!

Those crisp winter blue sky days = I'd kill for one of those right now! 

 

Sick & & tired of my days off (weekends) bloody raining all the time. 

 

 

So agree with this, and the thought that all next week although mild will be equally as depressing as today.

 

[Daniel*]

Warmest it's been all day 14C!!

it's getting ridiculous thoroughly depressing weather and I crave an alternative.

Snow and chilly temperatures 300 miles north a huge contrast to what's going on here. 

Time to delve into the MOD thread..

[myleon73]

It's 8:25pm and in Harwich Essex, the Temp is 17.7c !!! What is going on, its December.

[Captain Shortwave]

Torrential rain here now. 13C.

Edited December 12, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[tinybill]

Windy  out  side  just been reading my twitter account more flooding up north plus Leeds  city center is in danger of getting flooded  to-night

[Lauren]

Oddly, I've actually felt really chilly today. The wind really has a bite today.