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South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
in Regional

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

You have been on this forum for over 8 years - you should know better. :wink:

Well there's always the 'safe' option and that typically gives us such. 

In any normal year I'd agree given that 16 day anomaly models apparently are bad at modelling the effects of pattern changes, but everything feels so 'set' at present that I'm very pessemistic regarding the current setup changing, no matter how much I want it to.

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, amanda2012 said:

Hi anyone think risk of disruption is likely with next weeks storms in this part? 

Amanda I see your attention has switched from this weeks gusts to next weeks storm potential :) .......same applies, needs a couple more days for anything to be nailed on.

But yeah looks nasty if it comes off as shown currently and I'd raise an eyebrow if I lived in Scotland or the NW, plenty of time for changes though so don't worry yet and enjoy your Christmas

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Author
Posted

Squall line watch again today as the cold front moves through. Some heavy rain and strong winds likely during the mid to late morning period.

Modele GFS - Carte prévisionsModele GFS - Carte prévisions

Lets see what happens, this should all clear by mid-afternoon to leave a chillier spell which will remain until Christmas morning..... sigh.....

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Got woken up by the wind several times last night and the roof tiles are clattering. Surprised we haven't lost one yet!

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weathergeek Community Regular

weathergeek

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
Posted

Urgh....my beautiful snowy pics from Dec 2009 just came up on my Facebook memories.....sigh.... 

Just to give me some hope....didn't one of our historic epic winters start with a mild December before plunging into the freezer?! 

Merry Christmas to everyone here and I hope we all get our our Christmas weather wishes in Jan/Feb!!!xxx

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

Wind's got up here with some rain pushing through soon by the looks of things. Some torrential bursts in it by the looks of the radar. 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Little heads up for people going out there seems to be a pocket of very strong winds for the southern corner of our little oasis..

 

Can't rule out the odd 60mph gust nearer the coast as the front pushes through 

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Thanks for the heads up wind not really doing much now, was wondering what people were on about. Guess I'll find out later.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Absolutely blowing a gale here front just started to push in 

It's getting there slowly here, 42 mph highest gust so far.

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted
41 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looks like its gaining a bit of oomph to as it makes in roads on us 

Yes, it does. The wind has strangley gone down as the rain has started. 

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amanda2012 Rookie

amanda2012

Posted
  • Location: South London
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine
  • Location: South London
Posted (edited)

Hi anyone been looking at the charts for next weeks storms any updates would be appreciated thanks 

Edited by amanda2012
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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted
40 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

I'm no expert but looking st the charts today they seem to be veering to the left of us so not so close? Thanks 

Do you only worry about wind in December and January Amanda?....I'll be more worried about my wind after tomorrow's dinner than the wind gusts this afternoon to be honest ;):D .....Seen bigger wind gusts in Summer.

 

Now it's in FI but wow the GFS for the first week of Jan nearly made me spit my tea out all over the laptop, that's a very interesting chart, one the best I've seen for a while, just a shame so far out. :snowman-emoji:

 

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

i have a phobia of wind storms so it's a big problem for me 

hhmmm we'll I see that must be worrying for you, I don't like severe gales perhaps 1987 had something to do with that when I was little and of course nobody wants to see falling trees, lose a fence or roof tiles, we probably get just as many wind storms in Summer, July can often be windy for example

 

Now at present for us I really wouldn't worry yourself this far out, it's over a week away and that's a very long time in weather terms as you will well know by your questioning last week about this current spell of windy weather, it's not been too bad for us has it really and these things sometimes you need them to start happening before you can pin point any solid information, when it's a week away you could ask an opinion every 12hrs but it would change from run to run so you could well worry yourself over nothing....as per today. Yes today is breezy but nothing to get worried about. I'm more worried about Santa getting the round done in record time and perhaps forgetting me ;)

At present I would say next week Weds into Thurs for us not looking too worrying, if I was in the North West then I would have an eye on it, at present for here I think there is more to look at around the 4th/5th in terms of much colder weather.

 

P.S might be an idea to put your location in your profile, not the exact address or road but the nearest Town etc so when your asking questions you might get a better answer as West Kent can be different from East Kent for example.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted
21 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

i have a phobia of wind storms so it's a big problem for me 

Where abouts are you Amanda? The rain and wind have cleared here now and it wasn't too bad. Gusts just about touching 40 mph in the squall line

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