South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[Ben Lewis]

So this mornings run have played down any easterly blast taking hold into the new year. Surprise surprise!

ECM is the only model keeping the "cold dream alive"

UKMO,GFS,GEM all say "no thanks.." Let's pound the UK with more rain and double figure temperatures! 

[tinybill]

just  looking at the  models its not looking at all nice in the next few days  talk  of the front now slowing  down or even stalling over the flooded  areas  ,and even  in to the new year its looking nasty, us in this area we been lucky  to miss it

[Captain Shortwave]

a bright start to the day here in Gt Yarmouth. Just one more day before heading home and back to work on the 30th.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Sunny here as well, which is very pleasant given the Stygian gloom of yesterday.  It appears from the loner-range models that the Euro high may re-establish around the 10th-11th January, which could spell disaster for places north and north-west of here.  If it does, I think any reasonable person would want it to become a true Bartlett high, deflecting the Jet and bringing warm, dry conditions to the areas which need it most.  Cold and snow can stay away this winter as far as I'm concerned - what's needed up north is dry, warm weather.

[Captain Shortwave]

Overall a decent day, still no real ideas on how January will pan out, some snowy but some absolutely wretched charts with deep low heights over the UK bring copious amounts of rain again.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

battle ground  over  us here hoping!!!

[Ben Lewis]

6 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sunny here as well, which is very pleasant given the Stygian gloom of yesterday.  It appears from the loner-range models that the Euro high may re-establish around the 10th-11th January, which could spell disaster for places north and north-west of here.  If it does, I think any reasonable person would want it to become a true Bartlett high, deflecting the Jet and bringing warm, dry conditions to the areas which need it most.  Cold and snow can stay away this winter as far as I'm concerned - what's needed up north is dry, warm weather.

er... No thanks!!!

Just because the NW of Britain has suffered rain, I do not wish for a Bartlett with no snow/cold this winter and yet another snowless winter for my location. 

yes it's unfortunate for the folk of the north especially Cumbria, but wishing for dry/warm weather in a British winter is quite silly if you ask me, as it's highly unlikely to happen - especially for the North West. 

Wishing for cold is actually more practical- as cold weather in this country often brings good drying out weather. 

 

Bit like a few weeks back when the TV forecasters seemed to be over the moon that mild weather was here to stay. So that means countless days of floods/grey/ muck skies. 

Am I missing something! 

 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

er... No thanks!!!

Just because the NW of Britain has suffered rain, I do not wish for a Bartlett with no snow/cold this winter and yet another snowless winter for my location. 

yes it's unfortunate for the folk of the north especially Cumbria, but wishing for dry/warm weather in a British winter is quite silly if you ask me, as it's highly unlikely to happen - especially for the North West. 

Wishing for cold is actually more practical- as cold weather in this country often brings good drying out weather. 

 

Bit like a few weeks back when the TV forecasters seemed to be over the moon that mild weather was here to stay. So that means countless days of floods/grey/ muck skies. 

Am I missing something! 

 

 

Fair points, and I'm certainly no extreme mild-lover, but I considered that cold might lead to fronts stalling over those areas most badly affected.

[Ben Lewis]

48 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Fair points, and I'm certainly no extreme mild-lover, but I considered that cold might lead to fronts stalling over those areas most badly affected.

Always a possibility I suppose!

even though the Euros have improved dramatically for cold weather into Jan - snow wise it looks good for the midlands northwards and as usual rain south of Bedford. 

Even though looking at snow chances this far out is ludicrous and will chop and change, history tells us everything will be pushed north anyway! 

The long wait for proper snowy conditions in The SE continues. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

15 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Always a possibility I suppose!

even though the Euros have improved dramatically for cold weather into Jan - snow wise it looks good for the midlands northwards and as usual rain south of Bedford. 

Even though looking at snow chances this far out is ludicrous and will chop and change, history tells us everything will be pushed north anyway! 

The long wait for proper snowy conditions in The SE continues. 

Does my area count as "Midlands northwards", I wonder?

[Kent Blizzard]

Monday was a fairly decent day here, some pleasant morning sunshine.

its a little breezy outside currently and also some showery bursts of rain.

Not convinced about any Easterly before Mid Jan tbh but hopefully I'm wrong. I like to see a few bites of the cherry before a proper blast sets in although I would happily take a two day cold snap currently lol  

some good clear frosty nights are what's needed widely across the UK

 

 

 

[Mesoscale]

I think this picture says everything really, we are the same temperature as SE China and Central Mexico! Insane.

Edited December 29, 2015 by Mesoscale

[lassie23]

Another night sleeping with a fan!It's snowing in Texas for frig sake.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Another very boring bit of weather to come up with, nothing of note for the next week... 

 

Feel for the people affected by flooding and any sign of cold is now disappearing from the charts (real cold)

 

I think winter 2015/2016 is going to be remembered, but for all the wrong things 

[Daniel*]

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2016:

Remaining essentially unsettled across all parts throughout the period, with further bouts of wet and windy weather to come. The rain occasionally heavy and accompanied by gales, although much quieter, brighter weather can be expected in-between frontal systems. Still rather mild at times, particularly in the south, but generally feeling colder than of late with a greater risk of frost at night during quieter interludes. The rain also turning to snow at times in the north and northeast, mainly on higher ground, but with the risk increasing at low levels too later in the period as the potential for much colder weather increases. Looking at the period as a whole, temperatures are expected to be around average for January, though perhaps slightly above average towards the southwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

 

Edited December 29, 2015 by Daniel*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2016:

Remaining essentially unsettled across all parts throughout the period, with further bouts of wet and windy weather to come. The rain occasionally heavy and accompanied by gales, although much quieter, brighter weather can be expected in-between frontal systems. Still rather mild at times, particularly in the south, but generally feeling colder than of late with a greater risk of frost at night during quieter interludes. The rain also turning to snow at times in the north and northeast, mainly on higher ground, but with the risk increasing at low levels too later in the period as the potential for much colder weather increases. Looking at the period as a whole, temperatures are expected to be around average for January, though perhaps slightly above average towards the southwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

 

I just don't buy it yet...

 

This is why

 

[Kent Blizzard]

Strange day so far, had some showery bursts of rain yet met office didn't forecast it for here today, just had us down for sunny intervals which is currently is. 

Slight chill in the air but still mild for the time of year,  Could be a chillier New Years Eve.

[Kent Blizzard]

46 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I just don't buy it yet...

 

This is why

 

It's a tricky one but It's a start and what the Meto are hinting at is how I see it and mentioned the other day, more rain for those that dont need it, cooler and snow potential for the NE and Scotland.

Very small steps.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Lovely day here.  Sun almost continuously from early.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

I just don't buy it yet...

 

This is why

 

 That is not bad looking  

I believe that is a split jet, clearly disrupted, not what we're experiencing at this present time, with the Atlantic train heading straight at us, so to speak. It shows the jet stream taking a meridonal flow into Western Europe. You can gather blocking is having an lingering infulence to the NE, with one arm of the jet plunging S into mediterranean sea wouldn't take much westward adjustments for UK to be on the cold side of jet stream, most importantly that is 17 days out. I think the models are struggling around day 5! 

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Strange day so far, had some showery bursts of rain yet met office didn't forecast it for here today, just had us down for sunny intervals which is currently is. 

Slight chill in the air but still mild for the time of year,  Could be a chillier New Years Eve.

I agree KB. I wasn't expecting the sudden building of cumulus clouds late morning and I got caught out in a subsequent shower. But at least it made for an interesting sky! Here's how it looked earlier (but the clouds have melted away now, and it's a largely clear blue sky).

Another mild one here with a max of 11.9C. Had to mow the bl**dy lawn this morning.  In half a century of mowing lawns I've never had the mower out so late in the year!

P.S. Daniel & Surrey - IMHO there's every reason to be hopeful for some cold & snow during January. I'm liking the look of the N. Hemisphere charts from both GFS & ECM in around 10 days time. High pressure making inroads into the Arctic Circle from Siberia/Aleutians and the mighty PV looking somewhat disorganised. We just need a bit of luck (as always!!).

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lot of arguments today over the general pattern I'm going to stick my head out here and say we won't so much of a cold plunge at all this winter. I want to be proved wrong and before I get the comments of oh writing winter of blah blah it's just a hunch from previous setups like this. I hope I'm proved wrong

[snowray]

Was out in London earlier this afternoon, Sunny and very mild, spring like conditions yet again, and of course days are getting a bit longer now, I wonder what the ave temperature has been for London this December?

Seems like 17c has been a very popular daytime max and mins have also been 10c plus for much of the month. 

[Ben Lewis]

Lovely day here. More rain by looks of things from noon tomorrow! Joy... 

UKMO 12z keeps the "cold dream" alive this afternoon. 

One could get caught up in the petty posts in the MOD thread MildvsCold members! But if you can ignore that, which I advise, then there is clearly a huge pattern change going on.. Not just here but over Europe/Russia and the States. 

Refreshing to see after the continuous warm muck for weeks on end. What precipitation we see remains the question, but at least with such a pattern change the probability of something drier and colder is higher than it was 2 weeks ago. 

[snowray]

Great looking charts again today, but all potential and no cigar as expected, in fact the cold air is further away from us than ever!!

Now where have I seen that before, very cold air all around the UK but nothing makes it to these shores..

Oh nooooo NE might do ok, maybe NE Scotland...ha.