South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[abruzzi spur]

Hello.  I suppose this is part of the reason I don't post here any more (apart from this post, obviously),  Knocker gets a lot of stick from some but to me he just seems to be a bit of a realist.  For the last few weeks he has resolutely not bought into the 'cold is coming' mantra and so far the cold hasn't come.  I suspect he'll call it when he sees it, why wouldn't he?  Those that moan about others 'posting mild' could well be moaning because they don't want to hear it.  I think it's really important to listen to all views, weigh them up and then decide the whereabouts of the merits.   I am sure there are wind-up merchants for both cold and mild, but at the end of it all it's weather, it has its joys and drama, gloom and terrible tragedy.  If it doesn't snow this winter in the essentially mild and benign south east of England, should we really be surprised?   I don't like relentless rain and wind and mildness but can't conceive how it helps to rage at those that forecast it; so far this year they've been pretty spot on.  It might all change in Jan and if it does I'll be first out there with the sledge, betraying my 50+ years and embarrassing the children still at home with us.   I suppose I've had enough stuff in life to treat the weather with a bit more equilibrium than I would have done a few years back.

Anyway, happy new near to all on here, some of whom I'll know from old and/or elsewhere.

[tinybill]

 

It's tipping it down outside

[Captain Shortwave]

2 hours ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

@Daniel* and @Ben Lewis That's one of the things that confuses me the most - mild winters, with all their associated rainfall, cause considerably more longer-term problems for people than the occasional day of snow. Add to that the annual confusion some members seem to experience over people wanting seasonal weather...each winter it's the same, often descending into pejoratives like 'lunatics' and today's No True Weather Enthusiast fallacy. I enjoy lots of different weather types but snow now seems to be the rarest and so is the one I'm most keen to get. We get most typically British weather still so the majority of people get something they enjoy each year...to begrudge snow-lovers a few days of what they enjoy at winter seems uncharitable and juvenile. 

It is true that the majority of cold months in the UK are also drier than average, one major exception was February/March 1947 which was a wet month (A huge total of that falling as snow).

This set up was always going to be a trouble maker as failure to deliver an easterly at the first attempt was going to end up being a wash out. A small window for cold and snow in an area of time 95% dominated by rain unfortunately.

I do feel better about mid-month, whilst northerlies are not as potent and can be underwhelming, it should turn drier and we should see higher amounts of sunshine at least :).

Speaking of washouts, it has been raining hard here all evening.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[ReindeerMarmalade]

7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It is true that the majority of cold months in the UK are also drier than average, one major exception was February/March 1947 which was a wet month (A huge total of that falling as snow).

This set up was always going to be a trouble maker as failure to deliver an easterly at the first attempt was going to end up being a wash out. A small window for cold and snow in an area of time 95% dominated by rain unfortunately.

I do feel better about mid-month, whilst northerlies are not as potent and can be underwhelming, it should turn drier and we should see higher amounts of sunshine at least :).

I don't actually mind rain and wind (I know, I know...that's practically swearing at the moment) but then I don't live on a floodplain or at the bottom of a hill. I'll happily take dry and sun, if for no other reason than helping the NW become less subaquatic. But if someone offered me a day of snow I'd take it with both hands  

[lassie23]

I think we will get snow down south before 2016 is out Raining here and mild..........what day is it?

[Mesoscale]

Don't shoot me over this, but unless we get a prolonged period of below average temperatures then I would like it to stay milder without all of this rain please, I love cold and snow as much as the next guy but if the weather stays warmer I think the sea temperatures will stay up giving us more of a chance of importing surface based storms from the continent in the summer. I like surface based storms because they can really put out the booming thunder, I had quite a few storms last year (only over two nights but had 7 sequentially) all were high base and the thunder wasn't as violent (but the lightning was very frequent the most frequent I think I have ever seen in the UK). I am not even sure if it even matters what temperatures we get down to in the winter but for some reason I feel like they have a correlation. In December 2010 it got down to -14c here and the summer of 2011 was an atrocious year for storms. Maybe I'm wrong who knows? 

[Ben Lewis]

29 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Hello.  I suppose this is part of the reason I don't post here any more (apart from this post, obviously),  Knocker gets a lot of stick from some but to me he just seems to be a bit of a realist.  For the last few weeks he has resolutely not bought into the 'cold is coming' mantra and so far the cold hasn't come.  I suspect he'll call it when he sees it, why wouldn't he?  Those that moan about others 'posting mild' could well be moaning because they don't want to hear it.  I think it's really important to listen to all views, weigh them up and then decide the whereabouts of the merits.   I am sure there are wind-up merchants for both cold and mild, but at the end of it all it's weather, it has its joys and drama, gloom and terrible tragedy.  If it doesn't snow this winter in the essentially mild and benign south east of England, should we really be surprised?   I don't like relentless rain and wind and mildness but can't conceive how it helps to rage at those that forecast it; so far this year they've been pretty spot on.  It might all change in Jan and if it does I'll be first out there with the sledge, betraying my 50+ years and embarrassing the children still at home with us.   I suppose I've had enough stuff in life to treat the weather with a bit more equilibrium than I would have done a few years back.

Anyway, happy new near to all on here, some of whom I'll know from old and/or elsewhere.

I don't agree with some of your post. 

No one over on the MOD thread has shouted from the rooftops that snow is going to come, so what is it that you feel knocker gives realism to? 

If its members getting excited/upbeat over a cold chart & why shouldn't we it's winter (we are suppose to have seasons)  - like the ECM/UKMO provided a couple days back -  whilst it's then replied to with a barrage of mild charts reminding us constantly that mild is still winning.. Then no wonder others like myself never post in there. 

 

Im old & ugly enough to know its Mild and our Snow chances are not strong, therefore I need no one to give me realism. But to see others get excited over a cold chart would actually be quite nice. After all it's been pretty rare these past 2 years. why can't we embrace it, even if it isn't likely to happen. 

And to answer your question about being surprised if it doesn't snow? Er... Yes I would actually. Even managed to small snow events here last winter! 

 

[ReindeerMarmalade]

FWIW, I think realism and accuracy are imperative, otherwise they're not so much forecasts as pipedreams. The charts show what the charts show, and the weather will do its own thing anyway. I have no problem with any of that. What I do find bemusing is how excitement (for something a lot of us love and yet rarely get these days) is labeled 'drama' or 'lunacy' or whatever pejorative. If charts show cold, even in FI, then that should be fine to discuss and even get enthusiastic about (heaven forefend!) without the ensuing backlash in the moans thread or the insinuation posters of cold charts are somehow in the wrong. I'd feel exactly the same if posters of mild charts were getting a roasting. 

[abruzzi spur]

13 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I don't agree with some of your post. 

No one over on the MOD thread has shouted from the rooftops that snow is going to come, so what is it that you feel knocker gives realism to? 

If its members getting excited/upbeat over a cold chart & why shouldn't we it's winter (we are suppose to have seasons)  - like the ECM/UKMO provided a couple days back -  whilst it's then replied to with a barrage of mild charts reminding us constantly that mild is still winning.. Then no wonder others like myself never post in there. 

 

Im old & ugly enough to know its Mild and our Snow chances are not strong, therefore I need no one to give me realism. But to see others get excited over a cold chart would actually be quite nice. After all it's been pretty rare these past 2 years. why can't we embrace it, even if it isn't likely to happen. 

And to answer your question about being surprised if it doesn't snow? Er... Yes I would actually. Even managed to small snow events here last winter! 

 

Ah well Ben, thanks for replying but I suspect we are on rather different wavelengths.   I like balanced discussion, enjoy the fun, but can't get into a rage about it.   Hence I won't respond in any detail to your 'why shouldn't we' type questions as I never said we shouldn't.

I hope you get what you want out of the weather and the season.

[Kent Blizzard]

Real heavy burst of rain currently, quite loud against the window.

Was thinking earlier this winter has to be 3rd time lucky surely BUT with 2016 being a leap year it may not be thinking along the same lines! Lol

Edit: Rain stopped after 5 minutes.

 

Edited December 31, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[Ben Lewis]

7 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

Ah well Ben, thanks for replying but I suspect we are on rather different wavelengths.   I like balanced discussion, enjoy the fun, but can't get into a rage about it.   Hence I won't respond in any detail to your 'why shouldn't we' type questions as I never said we shouldn't.

I hope you get what you want out of the weather and the season.

Thanks Abruzzi, it wasn't a dig at you but more so at the mild camp. 

I to like balanced discussions but if posting a cold chart gets hammered by constant Atlantic domination posts and the "how dare you post a cold chart at +144hr when there's no other support"  Unfortunately there's nothing balanced about that. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

There absolutely is a link between what the weather does and SST they have huge impacts on the weather. For instance this winter a big drive for the weather patterns we are currently seeing is due to the cold SST in the north Atlantic. 

The Med sea last year broke records for how warm it got. The air temp maybe able to go up and down like s yo yo but billions trillions of liters of water don't just cool down or warm up over night. 

 

El Nino is another case if water temps having an impact on weather, this Warner than average water is  a global game changer.

So warmer summer warmer winter warmer SST the channel I now was 2-3 degrees above normal last year and unless we get some cold soon and it digs in for a long period of time, then we could be looking at some higher than normal SST next year.

Of course, ocean currents and other weather across the world has impacts to.

Warmer waters.. More fuel

Edit: on mobile so please ignore mistakes 

Edited December 31, 2015 by Surrey

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Woke up to a lovely crisp clear morning here, around 8c so nice and chilly for a change 

[Kent Blizzard]

Lovely sunny day here, just how it should be, rain on way though around early evening before clearing to leave a clear midnight for those letting off fireworks

[Ben Lewis]

Beautiful sunny day here. Not overly mild nor is it cold. 

[Blessed Weather]

What a fantastic day. It's been wall-to-wall sunshine and a joy to be out and about. Even the temp felt more seasonal at a max of 9.4C - even slightly chilly this afternoon as the wind gradually picked up. The cloud satellite image at 14.35 is great, with the low sun highlighting the contours of the clouds. Our Region poking out nicely into the clear sky ahead of the incoming band of rain.

[Captain Shortwave]

Sunny all day long here and compared to most days this month it feels actually quite cold (even though the temperatures are above normal).

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

Just wanted to pop in and wish you all a Happy New Year.

 

I still drop by now and again

It is dark and cloudy here and already been raining and that band of rain has yet to reach me, wet and wild afternoon ahead (and nothing pub related either).

 

All the best

 

J

[Daniel*]

Cool ish, v pleasant day more of this would be superb. 

[Rain123]

Squall line about to pass through, the wind is blowing a hoolie outside! Apparently reports of small hail mixed in, so this will be interesting! Maybe even a clap of thunder or two!

[ReindeerMarmalade]

29 minutes ago, Rain123 said:

Squall line about to pass through, the wind is blowing a hoolie outside! Apparently reports of small hail mixed in, so this will be interesting! Maybe even a clap of thunder or two!

Ahhhh, if I could have thunder it'd make up a little for the dire lack of snow in recent winters  

Edited to add: hail and rather blowy out now!

Edited December 31, 2015 by ReindeerMarmalade

[Rain123]

18 minutes ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

Ahhhh, if I could have thunder it'd make up a little for the dire lack of snow in recent winters  

Edited to add: hail and rather blowy out now!

You must live very close to me, we have small hail too. Not too large pieces...

[ReindeerMarmalade]

1 minute ago, Rain123 said:

You must live very close to me, we have small hail too. Not too large pieces...

I do! Sounds worse than it is in my conservatory but adding a bit of excitement to NYE  

[Rain123]

9 minutes ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

I do! Sounds worse than it is in my conservatory but adding a bit of excitement to NYE  

Yeah. Absolutely torrential now, am wishing for a rumble or too at the moment. Did you see the two very distant flashes from Alton way about half an hour ago?

Edited December 31, 2015 by Rain123

[ReindeerMarmalade]

9 minutes ago, Rain123 said:

Yeah. Absolutely torrential now, am wishing for a rumble or too at the moment. Did you see the two very distant flashes from Alton way about half an hour ago?

I didn't, I completely missed those, sadly. Rain has died down a lot now.

 

I know we're unlikely to get snow again this winter but I live in hope. Wishing everyone a happy New Year