South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[Flash Elvis]

12 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Looks like we are going to have to be patient yet again, the only good thing is after the last couple of years everyone seems a bit more relaxed about itthis time around.

 Speak for yourself..... I just don't have time to type cause I'm throwing all my toys out the pram with this weather........ Nature better not ruin my cricket season next year!!!!

[Lauren]

Fun driving over the M2 bridge, lots of gusts and you had to always steer slightly to the left to keep the car on track.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Some kind of squall line on the radar 

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Some kind of squall line on the radar 

Indeed:

 

Absolutely belted it down for a minute or two.

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by Daniel*
Fixed typo

[Lauren]

Blimey, it's chucking it down with strong gusts.

 

This is what I call 'snuggles weather'.

[alexisj9]

Wind died right down after that squall. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Well there was a brief spell of very heavy rain when I went to bed last night, otherwise not a lot has happened.

A clear start to the day here.

[stainesbloke]

Sunny with blue skies this morning, lovely!! Wish we could have a few weeks of this.

[alexisj9]

Wow what a difference, Dry sunny very little wind about, lovely day.

[Flash Elvis]

Its like a summer's day out there this morning 

[lawrenk]

I can't unfortunately find the original post but so far this Winter is proceeding more or less in line with Roger Smith's Forecast.

From memory, his forecasts are usually pretty good and free from hyberbole and he's going for a decent cold spell end of January into February.

To be honest, that'll do me fine for Winter. One decent fall of snow, that hangs around for four or five days, topped up with a few showers.

[Daniel*]

Unbelievable, it is sunny! 

We've not had a day like this in I don't even know...

Still mild, 12C

[Kent Blizzard]

I don't mind it mild when the sun shines and the sky is blue  that's more like it

Could be the last bit of sun and blue sky we see for a while...AGAIN 

[Dami]

Rainy and windy xmas day = curtains drawn , candles lit and a good film with hot choccy. 

Sunny here today atm, quite shocking.

Edited December 23, 2015 by Dami

[lassie23]

Typical summers day here in London, sunny and warm with clear blue skies. The cat is sunbathing and flies are laying eggs in her Whiskas chicken in jelly cat food. and I am eating a Strawberry Cornetto. 24.4c Having Christmas in the summer is very odd. Merry Christmas everybody!

[clark3r]

So here we are 23rd December, still very mild, still no sign of any snow, frosts, my fear is that by the time things set up for colder weather if we get some,it will be February, day time Max's 7 degrees no snow will settle! 

 

Merry Christmas hope we have a better New Year!

[alexisj9]

I'm sure these showers going on now were not forecast, even have some accus about. Wonder if these will get going properly. 

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, clark3r said:

So here we are 23rd December, still very mild, still no sign of any snow, frosts, my fear is that by the time things set up for colder weather if we get some,it will be February, day time Max's 7 degrees no snow will settle! 

 

Merry Christmas hope we have a better New Year!

Hi,

Early February is statistically the coldest part of the winter, there's a lot of water to under the bridge, clearly it will come in the latter half of the winter - which is not anything unordinary, early cold/snow pre new year is extremely rare. Some folk cough, are very inclined to write the month off and it's not even began using 16 day anomaly charts likely to suit their agenda, which is mad - ironically if coldies did they same they'd be flogged. We're experiencing quite an usual El Niño pattern but I believe, typically it does wane the deeper into winter. The PV has reached its peak potency for the winter which is reassuring, but still a mammoth journey to go here Glacier Point's post from yesterday did sound promising on this front. There are solid indications of Euro slug diminishing & jet stream taking a more southerly course, so seasonal weather returning towards end of 2015 into 2016 perhaps stormy it will feel like winter! And from there we have a better platform to a sustained wintry outbreak.

Merry Christmas.  

Edited December 23, 2015 by Daniel*

[leedsnowfan]

Anyone seen the 12z GFS for 30th Dec and 1st Jan?? Looks like some major storms just a week out.......

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Typical summers day here in London, sunny and warm with clear blue skies. The cat is sunbathing and flies are laying eggs in her Whiskas chicken in jelly cat food. and I am eating a Strawberry Cornetto. 24.4c Having Christmas in the summer is very odd. Merry Christmas everybody!

I reckon someone towed the UK into the southern hemisphere without us noticing!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hi,

Early February is statistically the coldest part of the winter, there's a lot of water to under the bridge, clearly it will come in the latter half of the winter - which is not anything unordinary, early cold/snow pre new year is extremely rare. Some folk cough, are very inclined to write the month off and it's not even began using 16 day anomaly charts likely to suit their agenda, which is mad - ironically if coldies did they same they'd be flogged. We're experiencing quite an usual El Niño pattern but I believe, typically it does wane the deeper into winter. The PV has reached its peak potency for the winter which is reassuring, but still a mammoth journey to go here Glacier Point's post from yesterday did sound promising on this front. There are solid indications of Euro slug diminishing & jet stream taking a more southerly course, so seasonal weather returning towards end of 2015 into 2016 perhaps stormy it will feel like winter! And from there we have a better platform to a sustained wintry outbreak.

Merry Christmas.  

Very unlikely.  Long-range forecasts have, sadly, written-off most of January already.  MJO may be heading towards phase 7, but the PV is so powerful this winter that it'll take something incredible to slow it down.

[Captain Shortwave]

Today has been.... well sunny. 

Despite a lot of tripe in this month, there have at least been a smattering of bright, sunny days to relieve us from the grey and damp drudgery that we have frequently experienced.

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Very unlikely.  Long-range forecasts have, sadly, written-off most of January already.  MJO may be heading towards phase 7, but the PV is so powerful this winter that it'll take something incredible to slow it down.

Such as?

Does it look powerful on that chart? Leaving its resident home of Greenland potentially giving way to HLB? with the PV paying the UK a visit with some very wild weather, if you've been paying attention to strat guys it is not going undisturbed the PV is not indestructible. Nor do we need to rely on its demise for anything of note, I expect the vortex to gradually dwindle from now on a way to go. I'd say a delayed Spring is likely we may be experiencing that Spring now!  

Trying to offer some optimism here and I don't think it's far fetched.

January is most definitely not lost - Mid January onwards is what I'm looking at. I cannot deny it has been a ugly start to the winter but nor can I see it lasting...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

21 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Such as?

Does it look powerful on that chart? Leaving its resident home of Greenland potentially giving way to HLB? with the PV paying the UK a visit with some very wild weather, if you've been paying attention to strat guys it is not going undisturbed the PV is not indestructible. Nor do we need to rely on its demise for anything of note, I expect the vortex to gradually dwindle from now on a way to go. I'd say a delayed Spring is likely we may be experiencing that Spring now!  

Trying to offer some optimism here and I don't think it's far fetched.

January is most definitely not lost - Mid January onwards is what I'm looking at. I cannot deny it has been a ugly start to the winter but nor can I see it lasting...

See NAEFS 16-day anomaly chart in the following post:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3306364

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

See NAEFS 16-day anomaly chart in the following post:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3306364

You have been on this forum for over 8 years - you should know better.

Well there's always the 'safe' option and that typically gives us such.