Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[Frosty.]

Sorry Carl, but I fear there's little if any room for optimism from a cold weather perspective from viewing the latest Ecm, especially when I read the initial reaction and hence sheer despair felt by both Nick S and Steve M.

Why should there be any despair from one Ecm op run? and it's still autumn until next week, lol I just don't get it, the experts (MO) are not anticipating anything wintry of note this side of Christmas so I honestly don't know what all the fuss is about.

[knocker]

The GLOSEA was potentially showing colder weather 20 odd days from now, the ECM only goes out 10.

 

The ext ecm is not showing any sign of cold either but that's not unexpected as it's only fifteen days. It looks very similar to tonight's NOAA. Tonight's EC32 might be more interesting.

Edited November 26, 2015 by knocker

[Hocus Pocus]

The ext ecm is not showing any sign of cold either but that's not unexpected as it's only fifteen days. It looks very similar to tonight's NOAA. Tonight's EC32 might be more interesting.

Im wondering if that would be down to any heights nearby only being the surface cold variety, that is if we indeed see any heights nearby.

[DAVID SNOW]

GLoSea5 is often mentioned in here, does anyone have the verification stats for this medium/long range model?

[Mark Neal.]

GLoSea5 is often mentioned in here, does anyone have the verification stats for this medium/long range model?

Public don't have no access i believe, some more information here- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/user-guide/technical-glosea5

 

Ian F may be able to shed more light? 

[knocker]

Im wondering if that would be down to any heights nearby only being the surface cold variety, that is if we indeed see any heights nearby.

 

Sorry not quite with that. It's basically what's been showing of late in gfs F1 with the HP to the south pushing north with 850 temps around -2C in the north to about +4C in the south.

Edited November 26, 2015 by knocker

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM spreads upto T240hrs its likely that theres a cluster of solutions that have high pressure centred further north, also the 850's in terms of Europe have a larger spread over southern Europe, this normally signifies a more ne flow here which would support high pressure centred near the UK.

[damianslaw]

As ever always best to look at what the models are showing in the reliable timeframe (usually around 5 days, sometimes less when the atmosphere is very unstable such as now, and sometimes more when more stable). What do they show - a very disturbed pattern with copious rainfall for NW parts -  worryingly so... I think we should be concentrating on the potential impacts this may cause - rather than potential 10 days + time..the polar front straddling the country with marked temp boundary to north and south setting up, quite interesting in some respects, largely due to a flatter Jetstream pattern locking the trough in place.

 

ECM and GFS are very different longer term... mmm how many times do we tend to see this occurring in the winter, many many times..

 

There are though quite strong hints of a pressure rise of sorts to the south, so perhaps some more settled conditions in the south at least as we enter early December.

 

A word on this weekend - it looks preety grim here,, indeed I could use a number of swear words, really want to do some walking but conditions look woeful..

[Harve]

A settled but chilly spell developing on this afternoon's GFS as we move into December

 

1052 mbars over Scandinavia in December. That would be quite something, wouldn't it?

[nick sussex]

The GFS and ECM continue to go their separate ways. Although the GFS 18hrs run isn't quite as deep with that Great Lakes low its still developing more amplitude over the eastern Pacific.

 

The ECM is as flat as a pancake upstream and its unusual to see this role reversal, normally its the ECM more amplified and the GFS much flatter in these stand offs.

[SMU]

We could be seeing a GFS coup tonight ....

T192 on the pub run looks a dead ringer for a scandi high-

Almost good consistency from run to run from the GFS

S

Edited November 26, 2015 by Steve Murr

[Ravelin]

Well the GFS really is a dog with a bone at the moment. 18Z AT 240HRS...

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the Gfs 18z..lovely intensifying Scandinavian anticyclone with increasingly cold Easterly winds...lol where's TEITS

Edited November 26, 2015 by Frosty.

[Scott M]

18z is nice to look at from 240 onwards would it not be more ideal for Europe to be slightly colder as it's only -4 850s or am I wrong.

[damianslaw]

I don't often comment on the GFS 18Z as it has a tendency to go off on one so to speak... and often diverges markedly from the 12z, however, because it doesn't, it has caught my eye somewhat, as it is so opposed to the likely ECM evolution.. Whether its just playing around with various scenarios today in light of expected amplification over eastern USA seaboard remains to be seen.

 

However, it is showing a plausible pattern evolution should we see such amplification, allowing substantial height ridge development northwards from the azores transporting quickly over to scandi. GFS being the USA model should be the best in theory on developments over the NE USA seaboard - and I do rate it much better than ECM when it comes to developments in that neck of the woods. So certainly we shouldn't be discounting the chances of such a scenario occurring even if other variables and overall background signals don't favour it..

 

Such developments often come out of the blue - keep an eye therefore on what is happening over the USA seaboard in the days ahead and how this interacts with the azores high.

[bluearmy]

18z is nice to look at from 240 onwards would it not be more ideal for Europe to be slightly colder as it's only -4 850s or am I wrong.

Patience . Those uppers with a continental flow will deliver surface cold. We would need a direct hit from a cold pool to make it proper snowy but surface cold would be a great start given the current projections for December are less than chilly.

[Newberryone]

Hopefully a trend that can be built upon over the coming days. However, some might say that usually the pub runs verification stats can be disappointingly low.

[SMU]

GFS control at 180

I tell thee the GFS is onto something...

S

[Yarmy]

Certainly the pub run is consistent with Fergie's dispatches from the GloSea earlier. Maybe we won't get a Scandi high, but I'd welcome a spell of frosty anticyclonicity.

[knocker]

No indication of any cold incursion on tonight's EC32 update. The 27th December finds a typical zonal flow with weak trough over the UK. Usual LP over Siberia/Alaska. Of course this isn't the full suite but even then.

[Scott M]

I guess as time goes on the models will change between horrible outlooks to brilliant. Ideally a deep low around Italy to develope to drag down colder air allowing the high to give us those easterly winds. i do gues I get impatient when it comes to winter but by the looks of things am not only one

[Bobd29]

I'm liking the Gfs 18z..lovely intensifying Scandinavian anticyclone with increasingly cold Easterly winds...lol where's TEITS

Come on Dave your beast is stirring.....give it a shove!

[Cheshire Freeze]

So here we are, not even into December yet and already tentative suggestions that the much touted December zonal train may have been de-railed before it even got 100m out of the station.....

 

Given the synoptics on a hemispheric basis over the last 2 or 3 weeks it's not surprising that we may be beginning to see the start of some eye candy runs in the not too distant future. As I've stated in previous posts (probably spanning back 2 weeks or more) we're on track....we just need to stay on that track!

 

FWIW GFS may well be too progressive, I've always thought mid December landing point but we'll see how it all pans out over the next couple of weeks.

Edited November 26, 2015 by CreweCold

[Man With Beard]

Never seen the GFS so obsessed with a Scandi High before. Since its upgrade, I've thought it favours PV dominance in FI, so this makes it all the more interesting. I read like this - high pressure looks like it could move up to the UK around the D8-D10 mark, and possibly even through it. Its resting place will dictate how cold we get, but such a pattern does not lend itself to above average temperatures at this time of year

[Hocus Pocus]

So here we are, not even into December yet and already tentative suggestions that the much touted December zonal train may have been de-railed before it even got 100m out of the station.....

 

Given the synoptics on a hemispheric basis over the last 2 or 3 weeks it's not surprising that we may be beginning to see the start of some eye candy runs in the not too distant future. As I've stated in previous posts (probably spanning back 2 weeks or more) we're on track....we just need to stay on that track!

 

FWIW GFS may well be too progressive, I've always thought mid December landing point but we'll see how it all pans out over the next couple of weeks.

Indeed you have despite some mocking overtones from certain quarters, it's certainly going to keep our man from the MetO on his toes during the next couple of weeks and maybe this is what the GLOSEA5 model is showing that Ian alluded to earlier in the day, or shall I say tentative signs.