Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[Liam J]

The BFTP upgrade shows its hand again.  If anyone has looked ay the 00z GFS you don't need to read my Dec forecast....coz there you have it although slightly better.  Looks like I broke in to GFS headquarters and changed the run.  ECM decent enough inasmuch no awful dominant Euro HP and could go on with HP coming out of NE Canada

 

BFTP

Out of interest, Can't see it in the winter forecast area, where can we view your December forecast? Cheers. 

[carinthian]

The GFS does have a habit of picking up on a trend before any of the other models. I don't think we can discount it just yet.

Having said that, the ECM bias to over amplify certainly isn't being show at the moment.

There is a massive difference in pressure distribution between these two this morning. Which one is to be a likely outcome or none at all. Makes for good model viewing. The GFS has for a while picked up a trend of Scandinavian High development and is now showing its hand with-in the 10 day time frame. However, as the previous two winters have shown, both these models have failed with this out come on a number of occasions. The ECM has the history of flipping within the shorter time scale. I think at this stage we need to see UKMO start to show some interest in this development. If it does, it could be a welcome relief for us many fans of a more prolonged colder spell we want to see.

 C

[stainesbloke]

Beautiful GFS this morning with a massive scandy high for all the cold lovers to get their teeth into.

I hope its correct !

Not really a Scandi high though is it? It soon drifts over the UK then out NW. What follows would be more interesting from a cold perspective but seeing as Europe isn't cold at the moment and it's showing at T200 onwards....

[Frosty.]

Lots of talk about what might happen in FI but today and tonight we have interest with an active atlantic disturbance bringing a band of heavy, squally rain followed by much colder conditions later with showers turning to snow across the north and even turning wintry further south tonight and looking further ahead, the Gfs 00z shows some wintry weather next week too, especially across Scotland.

.

[mountain shadow]

ECM at odds with GFS/GEM.

EC32&MET monthly at odds from GLOSEA.

A good test of the models ahead.

[MPG]

That particular evolution was clearly an outlier.

 

gfs263.png

Can anyone post this chart for Oslo? Thanks.

[bluearmy]

ECM spreads again support a ridge centred just ne of Scotland by day 10.

Door not closed to the gfs/gem solution by any means.

[Gavin Hannah]

That particular evolution was clearly an outlier.

 

gfs263.png

 

 

Woah, that is an outlier and a half lol....

 

I think i've seen models disagree as close as 5 days away, so this could be an interesting period of model watching.

 

 

Daaammmnnn!

Edited November 27, 2015 by Gavin Hannah

[JOPRO]

I have been following this site since the Dec 2009 Cold spell, while not an expert I think this will pan out one of several ways :-

 

1. Backtrack from the GFS to the ECM Zonal Solution

2. A Halfway house IE UK High (how many time have we seen this happen when the two are at logger heads)

3. ECM gets on board with the GEM and GFS.

4. One we have seen many times, The GFS picks up the signal runs with it for a number of runs in FI then drops it only for it to remerge in a more reliable timeframe or reappear again in FI.

 

As a cold lover in winter that Scandi hi is now within 195Hrs on Gfs! When was the last time we had one modeled get that close?

 

As good as the ECM is lets not for get the 'That ECM Moment in Dec 2012' Still much to play for. Lets hope we don't get a 'That GFS Moment in Dec 2015!)

 

Just my thought on models don't shoot me down am still learning!

[chris55]

Outlier or trendsetter lol

[Liam J]

Can anyone post this chart for Oslo? Thanks.

Oslo.... 

 

[bluearmy]

Jopro - we've lost Scandi highs at 4 days before!

General nw euro ridge seems the likely option

[Frosty.]

How's this for a temperature contrast early next week on the Gfs 00z, in the south, knocker's bumper crop of daffodils enjoy 13/14c temps and across the northern half of Scotland it's freezing with snow showers.

Edited November 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Out of interest, Can't see it in the winter forecast area, where can we view your December forecast? Cheers. 

 

'Winter 2015/6 - final countdown' thread. 

I wonder what Gloseaas is seeing today, but as some have said ECM not having it at the moment although I don't think the potential period of interest is in range yet. Its not even winter and we have some good winter model watching already.  FWIW I think this full blown Scandi idea would be a bonus but HP being nearby or over us seems a good idea

 

BFTP

Edited November 27, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ali1977]

Well by +174 we'll know if the GFS is sticking to its guns...that would be 3 in a row....just need ens to follow

[SMU]

Morning -

Just browsing the 15 day ECM & the spread is huge -

Operational is in the top quartile, but notably there is MORE clustering towards a colder solution than mild -

All to play for....

[JOPRO]

Jopro - we've lost Scandi highs at 4 days before!

General nw euro ridge seems the likely option

 

They are such fickle beasts!!

[Summer Sun]

1050mb high anyone

 

 

Then 5 days later...

 

 

Edited November 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[shaky]

1050mb high anyone

 

i assume it would be really cold under a high like that in december!!ice days maybe?

[Summer Sun]

i assume it would be really cold under a high like that in december!!ice days maybe?

 

Actually running it on it hits 1055mb quite chilly under it too

 

[MR EXTREMES]

it would seem that although the powerful el nino the atmosphere is very much similar to last winter!

same azores waxing and waning but last year especially in the north they done pretty well with pretty cold polar air.

 

from whats seen on the models just recently this only enforces a likely continued pattern although one plus we had last weekend was an atlantic southern greenland heights bringing the cold snap last weekend.

 

but this was before the vortex grew in strength although are weather is very mobile the over all feeling im getting is very last winter like.

 

but i expect some suprises thrown out by the models but when most of the top models show nothing more than a continued unsettled cooler milder weather type it certainly feels like going into december could see a possibility of a 97/98 rerun.

 

ecm32 and most of the longrange models dont seem to show alot of change.

[Gibby]

Encouraging signals indeed from GFS and GEM. We do need to suppress the Jet stream from riding over the top of any build of high pressure as the ultimate result will be for the High to be suppressed back to the SE and bring back the Atlantic. Will ECM pick up on the GFS theme, well not without some support from it's mean charts this morning but who knows..keeps us interested.

Edited November 27, 2015 by Gibby

[bradymk]

Posted a few days ago about the growing trend then in both the GEFS suites for an increasing anti cyclonic signal as we moved into December. Seems much more likely now but big difference between ECM and GFS although haven't looked at the EC Ens yet.

Uncertainty on where any high will end up but certainly a strong signal in GEFS for a anticyclonic period. Let's hope the high drifts north eastwards towards scandi rather than a high over the UK but I wouldn't mind either....

Huge ensemble mean though for day 14 from parallel. Quite a strong signal

Edited November 27, 2015 by bradythemole

[MPG]

Oslo.... 

 

oslo.png

Thanks..interesting...........

[Ali1977]

Quite different at 154, especially around Greenland , high pressure not looking like sliding up over the UK at this early stage..maybe will a day or so later though!!

Edited November 27, 2015 by Ali1977