Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[lorenzo]

Now there are scandi blocks and there are black holes.. Hawking would be proud of this effort from the 18z!

 

[Don]

Indeed you have despite some mocking overtones from certain quarters, it's certainly going to keep our man from the MetO on his toes during the next couple of weeks and maybe this is what the GLOSEA5 model is showing that Ian alluded to earlier in the day, or shall I say tentative signs.

 

Not wanting to go off topic, but wasn't there a short lived easterly outbreak in December 1997?

[ukpaul]

 

That's a pretty clear signal for so far out,

[Hocus Pocus]

Not wanting to go off topic, but wasn't there a short lived easterly outbreak in December 1997?

Wash your mouth out with soap mentioning that year that shall remain oblivious forever.

[swilliam]

One thing is for sure - we are going to see some HP according to the GEFS - Op off the scale and mean at 1030

 

 

with some matching cold temps

 

 

Edited November 27, 2015 by swilliam

[Hocus Pocus]

One thing is for sure - we are going to see some HP according to the GEFS - Op off the scale and mean at 1030

graphe4_1000_277_80___.gif

Intersting times and kudos to the GFS for smelling the coffee first if it does indeed verify. I still wouldn't be surprised if we end up with any block nearer to us than being modelled which would still result in surface cold. Edited November 27, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[bobbydog]

the vortex-

i shall call him 'squishy'...

[Geordiesnow]

We could be seeing a GFS coup tonight ....

T192 on the pub run looks a dead ringer for a scandi high-

Almost good consistency from run to run from the GFS

S

 

But it means absolutely nothing if it does not come to fruition though and in all honesty, only a few GFS runs are going for a Scandi high, other model runs have been going for the complete opposite. 

 

Still think next week's outlook is uncertain in just how mild it will be and how much the Euro/Bartlett high will affect the UK although it does look more likely still mild will be a more dominate force, some runs have shown the colder air from the Atlantic affecting at least most parts of the UK. Also just how windy will it be, for me, it seems its going to be quite a weekend windy weekend and as we head into next week, the winds will slacken as we start seeing the waving weather front come into play but other runs are going for a more windier set up so one too keep an eye on for sure. 

 

Also look like Sunday could be interesting, potential for severe gales is there, will the Met Office be naming this low pressure system I wonder?

[Mucka]

GFS throwing out some eye popping FI at the moment

 

 

And although this chart is beyond fantasy land it deserves to be posted just for the insane synoptic.

 

[Biggin]

GFS throwing out some eye popping FI at the moment

 

 

And although this chart is beyond fantasy land it deserves to be posted just for the insane synoptic.

 

 1050 HP ?? Thats high aint it ??

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS throwing out some eye popping FI at the moment

 

 

And although this chart is beyond fantasy land it deserves to be posted just for the insane synoptic.

 

To be honest we should certainly take heart from the fact the GFS and GEM are popping out the same solution from next weekend on a consistent basis

 

GFS

 

GEM

 

Both build the high in from that point and develop it in the UK/Scandinavia region. That is a start.

 

But we really need the ECM to develop something like this soon compared to the extremely zonal outputs it has managed recently.

[Costa Del Fal]

Certainly some interesting evolutions re the high pressure which looks like possibly moving in circa end of week 1 of December. Far far far from any certainty on his though never mind beyond that. Some really interesting charts for the UK especially from the GFS but at the same time the PV looks very organised too (hence the very low heights seen) which could easily shift more to our locale and keep things unsettled and probably more zonal. But organised or not, if the main core of the PV wants to shift to the eastern hemisphere so to speak, that is a start in terms of allowing heights to rise in the places we want should cold be your thing.

Edited November 27, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[knocker]

An overview of the latest EC32 update.

 

Starting on Sunday 6^th the anomaly is quite familiar with LP Alaska and Greenland with troughs to eastern Europe and mid Atlantic and HP North America and SE of the UK. Thus winds from the WSW and temps above average.

 

Moving on a week to the 13^th and the essential ingredients haven’t changed that much except the trough is now to the NW of the UK and the HP to the SE is much less influential. Ergo a more unsettled zonal flow with temps around average.

 

During the next week the trough to the NW remains the controlling influence so still westerly zonality with periods of unsettled weather perhaps more orientated towards the north and again temps around average.

 

There is no significant change to this scenario up to the end of the run on the 28^th.

 

Summary

 

There is a period between the 5^th and 12^th December when the European HP becomes more influential And the winds back more to the SW and temps are a little above average, From then to the end of the run the influence of the HP diminishes and the trough to the NW becomes the key thus a return to zonality bringing periods of wind and rain to the UK, more especially the north. Temps a little above average for a time before reverting to average.

 

Out of interest the updated METO forecast as this is bound to be mentioned

 

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Dec 2015 to Thursday 10 Dec 2015:

Tuesday will see the start of a succession of Atlantic weather systems spreading across the UK from the west. Northern areas are likely to bear the brunt of these, with the strongest winds, these occasionally gale force and heavy rain as well as some sleet or hill snow. Between the systems, most areas will have some drier and brighter periods, the best of these in the south. It is expected to turn more settled for a time as we move into the second week of December, with overnight frosts possible, although some unsettled spells will still be likely in the north at times. Temperatures will generally be around normal, although feel colder during any settled periods.

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Dec 2015 to Friday 25 Dec 2015:

Wet and windy weather is expected to return at the start of the period, with this trend likely to continue into the last week of December. Showers or longer spells of rain should affect most parts as Atlantic weather systems move in from the west, these bringing periods of strong winds or gales. Temperatures are expected to be around average or slightly above, although night time frosts are likely in more settled periods.

 

Updated at: 0136 on Fri 27 Nov 2015

 

And last night's GEFFS(P) anomaly which does tend to agree with the beginning of the EC32

 

Charts weatherbell

Edited November 27, 2015 by knocker

[That ECM]

Interesting output from GFS and Gem but until ECM starts showing some tentative signs there has to be much doubt. Lets hope T216 and T240 on Ecm start showing some signs. Doesn't need to mirror GFS, just pressure building north would be a start.  

[Liam J]

Interesting output from GFS and Gem but until ECM starts showing some tentative signs there has to be much doubt. Lets hope T216 and T240 on Ecm start showing some signs. Doesn't need to mirror GFS, just pressure building north would be a start.  

Yes, and reading Knockers post above on the latest EC32 it doesn't sound like it's going to.... Much rather the ECM was on board or at least starting to show some signs that the GFS maybe isn't barking up the wrong tree here, GFS + ECM  would be much more convincing than GFS + GEM.  

 

ECM, GFS & GEFS mean  T192

 

Edited November 27, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[That ECM]

Yes, and reading Knockers post above on the latest EC32 it doesn't sound like it's going to.... Much rather the ECM was on board or at least starting to show some signs that the GFS maybe isn't barking up the wrong tree here, GFS + ECM  would be much more convincing than GFS + GEM.  

 

ECM, GFS & GEFS mean  T192

 

ecm15.gifgfs260.pnggfs261.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/673/ECH1-240_ifc9.GIF   Not today Josephine!! and on we go. Not singing from the same sheet keeps it interesting I guess. 

[terrier]

So the ECM still isn't backing the gfs idea. And with ECM been top performance model I would expect the gfs to be wrong. And reading the latest ec 32 day update from knocker it does seem like Dec could be a zonal westerly based month. But as ever time will tell.

[winterof79]

So the ECM still isn't backing the gfs idea. And with ECM been top performance model I would expect the gfs to be wrong. And reading the latest ec 32 day update from knocker it does seem like Dec could be a zonal westerly based month. But as ever time will tell.

A cold zonal one in the reliable time frame.

I do believe GEM latched on to this first as Captain alluded to.Could this be one of those out of nowhere moments that we cold lovers yearn for and the METO dread

Edited November 27, 2015 by winterof79

[Ali1977]

The GFS is modelling this high from as early as day 7, one of them is wrong and not handling the situation well at all. With it being so close I expect to see a flip by one(hopefully ECM) by tomorrow morning.

Edited November 27, 2015 by Ali1977

[radiohead]

The GFS is modelling this high from as early as day 7, one of them is wrong and not handling the situation well at all. With it being so close I expect to see a flip by one(hopefully ECM) by tomorrow morning.

 

I would strongly suspect that that 1055mb UK high on the GFS is very wrong.

[Liam J]

I would strongly suspect that that 1055mb UK high on the GFS is very wrong.

That particular evolution was clearly an outlier.

 

[Met4Cast]

The GFS does have a habit of picking up on a trend before any of the other models. I don't think we can discount it just yet.

Having said that, the ECM bias to over amplify certainly isn't being show at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful GFS this morning with a massive scandy high for all the cold lovers to get their teeth into.

I hope its correct !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The BFTP upgrade shows its hand again.  If anyone has looked ay the 00z GFS you don't need to read my Dec forecast....coz there you have it although slightly better.  Looks like I broke in to GFS headquarters and changed the run.  ECM decent enough inasmuch no awful dominant Euro HP and could go on with HP coming out of NE Canada

 

BFTP

Edited November 27, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[joggs]

ECM solution or GFS.One of them is going to backtrack,6/4 on the GFS backtrack and I'll take 4/1 on ECM

Makes for interesting model watching.Any further info fergieweather?

Your as important to us as you are to your family at this time of year!!!!

Edited November 27, 2015 by joggs