Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[moffatross]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

If we do manage to stay within the -6c for a week (if) then it looks as if it is going to be dry

Looking on the bright side, most of us would take cold and dry over wet and windy 

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, moffatross said:

Looking on the bright side, most of us would take cold and dry over wet and windy 

I am in that camp too after December and January, and it wasn't even that bad here. I think the charts could be better, but it's all we've got and we can't afford to be fussy. We always used to say in here to get the cold in first and let the rest follow. We might get lucky, we might not. Way better than a long SWly airflow, rain and 11C which is always a possibility at any time of year. 

[blitzen]

22 minutes ago, moffatross said:

Looking on the bright side, most of us would take cold and dry over wet and windy 

Sure.   It's the cold part (or not) that's bugging me though.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

Ian Ferguson's post on MOD is encouraging all the same.   Perhaps I have been a bit hasty with my comments:   (Hope so)  Not often he goes out on a limb for cold prospects.    I think that he's implying that the operational models haven't caught up yet?

  37 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Temperatures are about to start a decline to below average and expectations are for quite a few weeks of that situation remaining, with cold/bocked weather dominating. It could last well into March. Longer range products have only just started reacting to the MJO phase 7 (which tends to have instantaneous response in outcome here) due to lag. Now we can see the direction becoming clearer in GloSea5 and EC Monthly, we await the operational model centres to catch-up. Storm track is expected to become ever more southerly in next 1-3 weeks, with inherent prospect of these passing to S-E of UK and resultant risk of wintry hazards. It's total chalk and cheese change versus winter so far and evidence is now compelling for most protracted period of below-normal temperatures seen for some time. It matches exactly the UKMO Seasonal Team assessment for this winter, but only now is the model evidence becoming well aligned. 

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Ian Ferguson's post on MOD is encouraging all the same.   Perhaps I have been a bit hasty with my comments:   (Hope so)  Not often he goes out on a limb for cold prospects.    I think that he's implying that the operational models haven't caught up yet?

  37 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Temperatures are about to start a decline to below average and expectations are for quite a few weeks of that situation remaining, with cold/bocked weather dominating. It could last well into March. Longer range products have only just started reacting to the MJO phase 7 (which tends to have instantaneous response in outcome here) due to lag. Now we can see the direction becoming clearer in GloSea5 and EC Monthly, we await the operational model centres to catch-up. Storm track is expected to become ever more southerly in next 1-3 weeks, with inherent prospect of these passing to S-E of UK and resultant risk of wintry hazards. It's total chalk and cheese change versus winter so far and evidence is now compelling for most protracted period of below-normal temperatures seen for some time. It matches exactly the UKMO Seasonal Team assessment for this winter, but only now is the model evidence becoming well aligned. 

That's the pro version of mine and @moffatross's keep the faith posts today  

[SW Saltire]

3 hours ago, Blitzen said:

Sure.   It's the cold part (or not) that's bugging me though.

Came onto this thread to rant about how this week is apparently 'cold' and is forecast to deliver 5-7c each day...

Would prefer 12c and occasionally wet to 5c and dull tbh.

However, that post from Ian F is quite a ramp tbh! So i will stop short of a rant....

This winter is a dud cold wise unless we get something better soon.... 4 weeks to go, clocks ticking.

[NorthernRab]

Currently 1.3'C here with occasional wet snow showers, looking a bit better as we head into the evening which may go someway to top up the covering we have here at the moment.

Incidentally I was up NS's way just before Tomatin for a forest walk yesterday afternoon. Will upload a couple pics later on. Rather tempted to make the move to Tomatin at some point, I notice that there are a few plots for sale at the edge of the village!  

[Northern Strath]

Back home now, always enjoy Aviemore, great place if any of you guys have never been. Have had about a 7-8cm top up here since Friday so nothing spectacular, currently snowing heavily though and more to come in the next few days no doubt 

nice one NR go for it  I think Aviemore always grabs the attention of the TV forecasters as it's better known but quietly places like here and Moy on the north side of the Slochd get more severe winters with the elevation. You're looking at an average of 70 days a year or even more snow cover. Do post some pics be nice to see  

currently 0C 

edit* NR not NS haha

Edited February 21, 2016 by Northern Strath

[Northern Strath]

Was looking at the recent warning for tonight thinking is 2-5cm or even 10cm worth a warning? Then I guess if you factor in this would be falling on already accumulated roadside snow and most likely blowing/drifting then I get the logic Met Office..?

[Hairy Celt]

Hmm looks a bit snowy at Ousdale

A webcam at somewhere like Forsinard would be good tonight!

 

Edit at 8 o'clock - freezing out now and there's a bit of snow lying!!  More incoming - oh YEAH says youngest HC - snow day tomorrow??

Edited February 21, 2016 by Hairy Celt

[Northernlights]

Down to Nairn tonight to sort out some issues for father-in- law.Would not have been on the roads otherwise with water everywhere ,a clear starry sky and temperature of 0c .  Black ice on all side roads although winter tyres masked it . Coming home came upon a couple of young guys who had decided to rearrange a fence as they spun out  on a straight uphill stretch of side road. Stopped to speak  to them and they were smiling and unhurt with help on the way.  Also a  flurry of snow has also whitened everything.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Northernlights

[Ross B]

Snowing here now, not many shower's about tho.

[Paul]

1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

Down to Nairn tonight to sort out some issues for father-in- law.Would not have been on the roads otherwise with water everywhere ,a clear starry sky and temperature of 0c .  Black ice on all side roads although winter tyres masked it . Coming home came upon a couple of young guys who had decided to rearrange a fence as they spun out  on a straight uphill stretch of side road. Stopped to speak  to them and they were smiling and unhurt with help on the way.  Also a  flurry of snow has also whitened everything.

Yes, roads nasty here in Aviemore too, like you say winter tyres help a lot, but not so much on the pavements where it was definitely a challenge to stay upright at times!

Have waxed the snowboard tonight, and am hoping to get up the mountain at least a couple of times this week, conditions looking great  

[Ravelin]

2.8C here currently but the wind seems to be getting quite strong and it felt bitter when I opened the door just now to let the dog back in from the garden. Wasn't lingering but looked like fairly clear skies, but unlikely we'll get a frost with that wind. 

Snow symbols starting to appear on the BBC weather app now, tomorrow evening into Tue looks interesting 

[Cheggers]

Snowing like hell here. Unexpected as just been out and it appeared to be clear skies. Light dusting appearing very quickly.

[November13]

Light snow here. Same blob but I am on the top edge. Could be an interesting night.

[NUT]

Sleet here. Surprising considering it been raining all weekend

[Hairy Celt]

Back to rain here now. Before, the roads and pavements were lethal. As Rav says, it gets really good n cold from tomorrow evening, and doesn't get mild again for the foreseeable - lets just hope the snow makes it over the hills this time.

 

[Hairy Celt]

15 minutes ago, Cheggers said:

Snowing like hell here. Unexpected as just been out and it appeared to be clear skies. Light dusting appearing very quickly.

 

10 minutes ago, November13 said:

Light snow here. Same blob but I am on the top edge. Could be an interesting night.

 

2 minutes ago, NUT said:

Sleet here. Surprising considering it been raining all weekend

I think you're under the band of colder stuff that's drifted down from here, leaving us with a temporary 'mild' sector, till later tomorrow...

[Northern Strath]

7 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

 

 

I think you're under the band of colder stuff that's drifted down from here, leaving us with a temporary 'mild' sector, till later tomorrow...

Aye 1.5C and the showery deposit on the windscreen required only a swipe with wiper with no need for the 15min heater blast, nice easy start for a Monday morning really. Midweek it'll be a sledgehammer though

[Ravelin]

Another lovely morning here with virtually cloudless blue skies. Bit of a breeze and temp around 3C so no frost. Still looking possible I will wake up to a covering of snow tomorrow morning (that's jinxed it now). 

Edited February 22, 2016 by Ravelin

[Cheggers]

Cracking morning here. Snaw last night failed to get going so left with a dusting only.

[blitzen]

Beautiful here too with a frost which is now quickly melting.   Overnight low of 1.2c, now currently 3.2c./2.5c/SW.

[SW Saltire]

Looking forward to the sunny conditions over the next few days...

Gibby's summary, inconjunction with Ian F's further post about this 'cold' period being 'nothing unusual' and unlike 2013, woukd seem to have confirmed that chances of lasting snowfall and cold are over this winter (for the majority). A bit dissapointing... Meh. 

NS will be fine and those on lower ground in the North but for the rest of us, it's just cooler rain and a bit drier.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, SW Saltire said:

Looking forward to the sunny conditions over the next few days...

Gibby's summary, inconjunction with Ian F's further post about this 'cold' period being 'nothing unusual' and unlike 2013, woukd seem to have confirmed that chances of lasting snowfall and cold are over this winter (for the majority). A bit dissapointing... Meh. 

NS will be fine and those on lower ground in the North but for the rest of us, it's just cooler rain and a bit drier.

Oh you're in full scale misery mode this morning @SW Saltire  A big dump of snow is not out of the question anywhere in Scotland in the next two weeks. Except for you, you don't deserve it with that attitude