Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Northern Strath]

Wee covering this morning here in Aviemore then a day with snow/rain/sleet showers. Snowing in the last 10 mins with the forecast good for more tonight in to tomorrow. Should have clocked up a few cms back home

Was woken this morning by the voice of Nigel Farage on the box so I knew it was going to be a particularly brutal hangover 

[Hairy Celt]

45 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

Wee covering this morning here in Aviemore then a day with snow/rain/sleet showers. Snowing in the last 10 mins with the forecast good for more tonight in to tomorrow. Should have clocked up a few cms back home

Was woken this morning by the voice of Nigel Farage on the box so I knew it was going to be a particularly brutal hangover 

Dear God no.  It's usually a race for the off button then a dash to the toilet chez HC when that sex toy is on the radio.

Just been out and it's till sleety rainy snow stuff.  Some big splatty ones in the mix.

[Polar Maritime]

Bad conditions on the Ben while the search goes on..

 

[Ravelin]

30 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Bad conditions on the Ben while the search goes on..

 

Sadly I expect the rescue effort is more likey to be in a 'recovery' phase by now. 

Not been a bad day here really. Felt milder than the 5C would suggest it should have, probably because it was often sunny with light winds. 

[NorthernRab]

Just below 1'C with snow showers and winds between 35mph to 50mph resulting in a windchill of -8'C. Chilly out there!

[Guest]

The ECM looks broken, like they ran out of white pixels to draw the pressure on. 

[Northernlights]

Got a bit milder during the day so lots of sleet and rain making gound conditions saturated again.  No real sign of spring yet and talking to other farmers  the mood is like the weather bleak, hearing of  sowing contractors being told that their services not needed this spring as farmers are going to fallow ground as growing grain is so unprofitable. There are almost no malting barley contracts out there as several maltsters have enough grain left from the last two years massive harvests that they do not need any from this years harvest.  Been these slumps in the past but this one with all the food bans with Russia and politics everywhere is making this one probably worse than previous ones. So perhaps a very late spring would help to get rid of the supluses.

 

Have to add that several thousand acres of crops in the area seem to heading to biodigester plants for energy production which seem to springing up in the area. This should also help to take a lot of physical grain off the market too

Currently 1c breezy and dry.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2016 by Northernlights

[Hairy Celt]

Still on 2C with heavy sleet.  Cats are crossing their legs for the night.

[Polar Maritime]

Good news this morning as 2 missing climbers have been found on the Ben. But not the couple that have been missing for the past few days to my confusion as pointed out by Moff below so have edited this post.

 

Edited February 21, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[moffatross]

6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Good news this morning as the missing couple have been found alive on the Ben. 

But to be clear, it's not the couple that have been missing since last weekend. This was a pair of male climbers that failed to return as expected yesterday.

[Polar Maritime]

Aah i see, Thanks for the clarification Moff. I realy hope they get found alive its been a couple of days now with terrible conditions on the mountain.

[Ravelin]

12 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The ECM looks broken, like they ran out of white pixels to draw the pressure on. 

Has anyone ever seen a messier chart than this? The previous few frames are just as bad. 

Looks OK again outside here thus morning. Around 4C,dry and partially sunny. 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Has anyone ever seen a messier chart than this? The previous few frames are just as bad. 

Looks OK again outside here thus morning. Around 4C,dry and partially sunny. 

They found the white pixels again this morning then? It might be messy but it looks fairly chilly too, surely we'll all get something out of this? Except @Hawesy and @Hairy Celt ? Sorry gents but you know the score  

Edited February 21, 2016 by CatchMyDrift

[Cheggers]

Well another wet start to what has been a wet and chilly weekend

[edo]

Yes 3.8c here and all very benign...not the snowmageddon I was "promised" several days ago...the charts beyond 4 days have been nigh on useless since the December onslaught finished...no such problems with the charts when the weather was locked into that period....some cold uppers this week and a northerly flow with troughs appearing so some could have not too bad a week with regards to seeing a few flakes and more than a few in some cases....ie NS and NL etc but not HC....the chart below from the MFS clearly shows problems with any precipitation turning wintry 

[Hawesy]

20 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

They found the white pixels again this morning then? It might be messy but it looks fairly chilly too, surely we'll all get something out of this? Except @Hawesy and @Hairy Celt ? Sorry gents but you know the score  

I think even HC would now concede that he lives in a veritable winter wonderland compared to me.  He's had snow on the ground a couple of times this winter (albeit fleeting) whereas my snowless reputation remains untarnished. 

The models do look chilly though. Even if GFS is overdoing the 850s as usual it looks cold enough for snow at low levels from Tuesday through Thursday at least. The problem may be precipitation, it looks mostly dry for many.

I'm in Dublin Thursday to Saturday, now wouldn't it be hilarious if...

Edit: dry here with good patches of blue sky, 5.1c.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Hawesy

[blitzen]

We're walking a fine line with those 850s are we not?   Too many mild sectors surrounding us up there for my liking!   It is actually Monday night before anything colder sets in here and, you know what they say, if it can go wrong it will and it looks like it's going to.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Blitzen

[Hawesy]

16 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

We're walking a fine line with those 850s are we not?   Too many mild sectors surrounding us up there for my liking!   It is actually Monday night before anything colder sets in here and, you know what they say, if it can go wrong it will.

That's right Blitzen, the 'proper cold' is from Tuesday onwards. Temps at the moment are around average with highs of 4-8c yesterday across (lowland) Scotland. Here's the GFS for Leuchars (I prefer this view as you can see all the figures at a glance): -8c 850s from Tuesday through Thursday (usual GFS caveat applies). http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGQL

Note also that it's almost completely dry at Leuchars next week, according to GFS....

 

Edited February 21, 2016 by Hawesy

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

That's right Blitzen, the 'proper cold' is from Tuesday onwards. Temps at the moment are around average with highs of 4-8c yesterday across (lowland) Scotland. Here's the GFS for Leuchars (I prefer this view as you can see all the figures at a glance): -8c 850s from Tuesday through Thursday (usual GFS caveat applies). http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGQL

 

The 850s don't go back above -6 for a week, that's fairly reasonable at any time of year. 

[Northernlights]

Miserable out this morning very cold, wet ,windy at 1.5c

[blitzen]

35 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 850s don't go back above -6 for a week, that's fairly reasonable at any time of year. 

I feel it's breaking down Catch....If we do manage to stay within the -6c for a week (if) then it looks as if it is going to be dry, which is not what I was hoping for.   I think we are witnessing the proverbial backtrack.....(yikes! I sound like IDO on the MOD)....

I usually like to go through a run using the Meteociel charts, but Netweather's 850s define any warmer sectors which are mixed in more clearly.   They aren't so obvious (to me) on Meteo.  You can see them between T108/T120 which makes me suspicious.  Once these start to appear, then it's usually a downward spiral.

Of course I could be talking a lot of poo!

Edited February 21, 2016 by Blitzen

[Hawesy]

10 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Miserable out this morning very cold, wet ,windy at 1.5c

Yes the kind of day I'm grateful to have all those mountains to my west!

[Northern Strath]

Well all green here in Aviemore, with sleet/snow showers, mongoosing it with the best, no problems back home and further north with the look of the cams though and Daviot (at a similar elevation to Aviemore) has a cover

[Hairy Celt]

3C and damp in my beach hut.   Will take the weather as it comes, especially as I don't know where I'm going to be from one week to the next for the next few months.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

I feel it's breaking down Catch....If we do manage to stay within the -6c for a week (if) then it looks as if it is going to be dry, which is not what I was hoping for.   I think we are witnessing the proverbial backtrack.....(yikes! I sound like IDO on the MOD)....

I usually like to go through a run using the Meteociel charts, but Netweather's 850s define any warmer sectors which are mixed in more clearly.   They aren't so obvious (to me) on Meteo.  You can see them between T108/T120 which makes me suspicious.  Once these start to appear, then it's usually a downward spiral.

Of course I could be talking a lot of poo!

Well we'll soon find out one way or another. Charts like this do give some encouragement though:

Edited February 21, 2016 by CatchMyDrift