Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Sunshineandshowers84]

There was a blackbird singing away this morning at dawn like you would hear during Spring and Early Summer.. Strange to hear during the Xmas Period. Got up and for a change was a nice day.. High cloud took over from mid morning to afternoon with some light rain by teatime but overall a calm and mild day.. Was that a warm front that was edging nearby today? Anybody answer?  Was wondering if it was occluded front passing by but certainly had Warm Front character giving decent dry weather before the light rain came..

[Norrance]

It was a warm front bringing mild air up from the South I think. Temps well up on yesterday with a max of 8.9C. Min was 4.2C at midnight.

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Well it brought a fairly calm day here a decent day for a good walk even though it was cloudy it was high cloud.. Wind has certainly picked up the past few hours but dry just now... Dare say by morning it could be awful.. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Been a while since I've been on again, thanks to exams and family up/meeting friends over Christmas. As was fairly widely expected December hasn't exactly been a winter wonderland, although early in the month and late November were not too bad up here for cold and snow. 

There's definitely some potential in the charts now, which makes a change, with blocking over Scandi perhaps managing to extend its influence further west. However, much as tonight's ECM looks good we do remain on the periphery of the cold with most runs, and there's a slightly concerning similarity with the 'close but never any cigar' winter of 2013/14. Fortunately, there's still a good few months left to get things right. Still, this isn't too bad a chart to look at for the start of 2016:

[mistyqueen]

12 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Very snowy looking as we head into next week. Let's hope the models continue to show this potential over the next few days. 

Check oot the snaw depth chart from the latest ECM.....

 

I see from Stormeh's chart that the snaw shields will be well and truly in place over Skye for the arrival for the white stuff. So no surprise there then! Today is cool at 4.3c, calm and cloudy, literally the calm before the inevitable. Hope everyone stays safe and that not too much damage is done!

Edited December 29, 2015 by mistyqueen
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[doctormog]

I have to say that the next 48hrs or so in terms of both rain and winds look awful. The former for the SW and the latter more generally.

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

A much calmer start to the day after yesterday's gales. Won't last long though.

Very mild again overnight with temp up to 11c. Cooled off to 7c now.

[moffatross]

The Met Office are using interesting language in their warning updates this morning ... 

"The low which is expected to generate these very strong winds is currently deepening explosively over the mid Atlantic, and therefore uncertainty remains regarding its exact track. As such this warning will be kept under review."

[moffatross]

27 minutes ago, doctormog said:

I have to say that the next 48hrs or so in terms of both rain and winds look awful. The former for the SW and the latter more generally.

Yes Michael, another bout of hosepipe style rain coupled with tile lifting wind gusts. My least favourite weather and a type that's been delivered in spades for weeks and weeks now.

[mistyqueen]

3 hours ago, moffatross said:

Yes Michael, another bout of hosepipe style rain coupled with tile lifting wind gusts. My least favourite weather and a type that's been delivered in spades for weeks and weeks now.

Couldn't agree more! It's already started to get a wee bit breezy oot there, had to hold the roof of the hen hut on whilst I was giving it a guid clean oot! I've been out putting boulders in buckets and just moving stuff that I know will take off when the big gusts come. Can't really do more than that. So now we just sit and wait and hope it isn't going to be as bad as predicted. Stay safe everyone!

[edo]

Well I have just been golfing today...took the rare opportunity of a sunny day and managed 18 glorious holes in Blairgowrie away from the noise of the kids of the last week admittedly the noise of fun and a great time but lots of noise ...... Was actually playing in a tshirt and greens were in great condition...ridiculously so and shows the growth there had been....off for a walk by the river now to get the kids out and then back to the couch and duvet and kids playing whilst we look out at the weather for next two days...love a storm but let's hope nobody has damage....not even sure if will be bad here in the East but appears neither do the meto.....meanwhile looks like snow possible this weekend in a cold w flow for some so very interesting times...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Slightly more positive MetO long term the morn.

Up until now has been 'remaining mild, wet and windy - nothing to see here, so move along'. Now more 'well, maybe...possibly...but don't start ramping yet'.

Quote

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2016:

Remaining essentially unsettled across all parts throughout the period, with further bouts of wet and windy weather to come. The rain occasionally heavy and accompanied by gales, although much quieter, brighter weather can be expected in-between frontal systems. Still rather mild at times, particularly in the south, but generally feeling colder than of late with a greater risk of frost at night during quieter interludes. The rain also turning to snow at times in the north and northeast, mainly on higher ground, but with the risk increasing at low levels too later in the period as the potential for much colder weather increases. Looking at the period as a whole, temperatures are expected to be around average for January, though perhaps slightly above average towards the southwest.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 27 Jan 2016:

The main signal is for a westerly pattern to be established, with frontal systems continuing to move in from the Atlantic to bring spells of wet and windy weather at times. The wettest weather looks set to affect western areas, with any snowfall mainly confined to higher ground in the north. Overall, temperatures are likely to be in the near to just above average category, although there remains a low probability of a more prolonged spell of colder weather.

 

Anyway, hatches battened doon here. Still calm before the storm. Been a lovely sunny day, although with a bit of a breeze at times. 7.4 C.

Edited December 29, 2015 by scottish skier

[Michael Kaii]

should i be more worried for the wind or the rain affecting my area?

currently its calm and dry getting ready for tonight's storm

an other question is i see the low is heading up towards Iceland. what are they affects with frank?

[spindrift1980]

An illustration from the SAIS blog of just how these mild and wet intervals eat up the snow in the hills - first image from Glenshee Ski Centre on 27 December, the second from 28 December!  Hopefully we'll see an end to these really mild spells as we move into January.

http://www.sais.gov.uk/

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Michael Kaii said:

should i be more worried for the wind or the rain affecting my area?

currently its calm and dry getting ready for tonight's storm

an other question is i see the low is heading up towards Iceland. what are they affects with frank?

It doesn't look too bad for where you are, but that's my take on it rather than an expert opinion  

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Wind now picking up here quickly. Just had the fire give a wee smoke backdraft into the living room; sure sign of a storm.

Rain about 10 miles away.

Edited December 29, 2015 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

Wind starting to gust here now.   Highest gust 29.1mph/ SSE.   Temp 8.7c/5.3c.

Looking at the radar, at the moment we are dry owing to the usual split taking place and skirting around  the north and  the south of Fife.   Not expecting much over here in the east and was surprised that BBC mentioned central Scotland to be one of the worst affected areas.   Sometimes though, when you don't expect much, the weather does its worst.   We  shall see...........

 

[mistyqueen]

Wind now howling around the house and what sounds like gravel being flung against the window, although I know it is really just rain. Highest gust so far 43.6mph. Worse to come???

[NUT]

Wind's getting stronger. Rain's not far away at all now and looks set in for the rest of the night once it starts

[Northern Strath]

Aye as Spindrift pointed out the snow certainly up and disappeared like Keyser Soze, lying now only on anything 2-3 thousand feet upwards

Some people don't like snow (not many on here) but at least it doesn't consistently ravage homes or destroy historic bridges etc. You don't have to name it 'Frank' or 'Jeff' or 'Monty' when it arrives too. Bring on some January blizzards instead of this wind and rain mince please 

Edited December 29, 2015 by Northern Strath

[BurntFishTrousers]

2 hours ago, scottish skier said:

 Just had the fire give a wee smoke backdraft into the living room; sure sign of a storm.

My bold. Scientifically proven?

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Last night the wind was an issue but no rain fell overnight which surprised me but looking at radar Argyll got a fair bit.. Nice day today until dusk however total opposite now with strong gales really horrible outside..

[doctormog]

Horribly windy and raining too here in Aberdeen. Certainly my least favourite weather - bring on the snow instead .

[Sunshineandshowers84]

To be fair Aberdeen has managed to avoid the worst weather we in the west get.. Take the Polar Maratime airmass while most western areas are battered by Blustery showers with hail and Thunder at times Aberdeen gets it cold but completely dry.. Wind getting worse now..

[Big Innes Madori]

Up in Aviemore for the week and see in the New year!

Some big gusts here all evening and still going strong.

Noo, whaurs mah fkn Snaw that ah had dreamed aboot when booking this at the start o' the year???

 

Big Innes