Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Day 10]

To Throw In The Towel

 

To quit:

This phrase comes from boxing model watching. When a boxer snow fanatic is too beat up to continue, his coach he or she throws a towel into the ring at the PC to signal that the fight winter is over!

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, i reckon youre getting a rough ride on the md thread. people look at charts and automatically think 'snow showers' , but an easterly can be overcast and dry,. i dont know the dynamics required for heavy snow showers, but looking at an easterly or northeasterly and believing in snow showers are coming is naive.

Indeed- in my experience most easterlies in the winter half-year end up with stratocumulus trapped underneath an inversion, resulting in dry cloudy weather.   To get showers you need instability, which is helped by a large contrast between the temperature at high altitudes and the sea surface temperature, and by relatively low heights.  A longer track over the North Sea (i.e. an east to north-easterly type, rather than south-easterly) can also help, although the longer sea track can also mean the difference between snow and a wintry mix.

I don't think the easterlies shown on the current model outputs would be likely to give much instability.

Edited February 22, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[lassie23]

All we need now is a tweet from Joe Bastardi about the upcoming cold spell, containing the words frigid and freezer. Then you know winter is over and the cold spell will be super duper

[Thundery wintry showers]

1 hour ago, weather09 said:

Yes, common misconception appearing again where it's assumed cold temperatures at 850mb alone means an adequate environment for vigorous convection travelling off the North Sea.  However I think Captain Shortwave, Sub-Zero and John Holmes cleared this up, noting that the mid-level to 500mb profile is more relevant concerning instability- i.e. are we situated under a trough (with large scale ascent) and cold air aloft which serves to steepen the lapse rate through the mid-level?  

Indeed, it can be sub -10C at 850mb, and atop relatively mild waters, however if it's situated under weak geopotential heights/ridge with relatively minor cooling aloft and little ascent, convective activity is inhibited.  

The 850mb temperature vs. North Sea temperature contrast is correlated with instability but indeed it's only a very rough guide.  I actually remember being taken in by it the other way around- I think it was in March 2014 sometime, when there wasn't much of a contrast between the 850mb temperature and North Sea temperature, but there was deep instability at higher altitude, and so heavy thundery showers with hail developed over north-east England.

I remember looking at the tephigrams during the easterly spell of late-February 2013, when on a couple of the days, the atmosphere was unstable up to 850mb, but there was a strong cap at 800mb and so eastern areas had just scattered light flurries.  I am guessing that late-January 1976 was probably the same.

Edited February 22, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

All we need now is a tweet from Joe Bastardi about the upcoming cold spell, containing the words frigid and freezer. Then you know winter is over and the cold spell will be super duper

Bastardi, wondered how you wrote that! used to come up as laminate floori

Edited February 22, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[snowblizzard]

The fact that likes of Steve Murr & Nick Sussex are not posting in the mod thread says it all really!

Another disappointing non-event, just cool, mainly dry weather with some frosty nights which will be nothing unusual for late February or early March.

R.I.P. Winter 2015/16

   

[Weather-history]

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

455.5 2014

423.0 1915f

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

~363  2016

Scotland

~648. 2016
604.5 2014

Northern Ireland

452.2 1994
~416 2016

 

[Weather-history]

People saying it isn't going be a March 2013 in terms of cold etc? Why does it need to be a March 2013 type anyway? I can recall  March 1985, 1987, 1995, 2006.

Infact one of the snowiest March in the last 25 years was 1995 and that was overall average, temperature wise. That was for me one of the best Marches, 3 days of lying snow, nice sunshine, some frosts, some early spring warmth.

[Weather-history]

Overnight 22nd/23rd February: full moon and its light catches convection over the Irish Sea

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Biggest thing to take away from the models for me is that there's not a drop of rain forecast until Tuesday. That will have been 9 days. 

[Bradowl]

Reading what Gibby has stated this morning any widespread wintry weather looks unlikely now. Bit cold over next few days and over weekend before our normal atlantic takes charge once again next week. 

Edited February 23, 2016 by Bradowl

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

People saying it isn't going be a March 2013 in terms of cold etc? Why does it need to be a March 2013 type anyway? I can recall  March 1985, 1987, 1995, 2006.

Infact one of the snowiest March in the last 25 years was 1995 and that was overall average, temperature wise. That was for me one of the best Marches, 3 days of lying snow, nice sunshine, some frosts, some early spring warmth.

because what 'coldies' want IS snow and a decent cold snowy spell like 2013 delivered. those years you quote only had short lived 'nuisance' cold events with some snow for some. i didnt get 3 days of lying snow in 95, checking my work diary i lost no time due to bad weather except before i started (6th 7th i had down as cold wet windy). after then it was business as usual.

march 2013 stands out as THE occasion when winter truely carried on into spring - that is not going to happen this year.

 

Edited February 23, 2016 by Paul

[Summer Sun]

42 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Gib, always posts that, downplays cold, if we were to get -10 uppers easterly, he will still say sleet on hills

Gibby's posts are unbiased and the vast majority of the time right if some snow was likely at lower levels he'd say so this spell doesn't look like bringing any significant snowfall

Edited February 23, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

march 2013 stands out as THE occasion when winter truely carried on into spring - that is not going to happen this year.

.

Well that is extremely low probability,  having said that no one had any idea how cold March 2013 was going to be          even at the start of that month. The CET was 4.9C by the 9th of the month. 

[mushymanrob]

12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Well that is extremely low probability,  having said that no one had any idea how cold March 2013 was going to be          even at the start of that month. The CET was 4.9C by the 9th of the month. 

true, but the ecm in fi had hinted at a beasterly for several weeks. ok, it wasnt consistent and i along with most dismissed it as fi eye candy. in hindsight the ecm had picked up on a signal, but at the time no one foresaw the march that was to come.

[mountain shadow]

The weather for the next week is sponsored by the letter Zzzzzzzzz zzzzz. ..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The weather for the next week is sponsored by the letter Zzzzzzzzz zzzzz. ..

yes boring, very quiet forum, boring netweather but this is miles better than our usual wind and rain, next tuesday looks a wet one, will be wishing then to have this weather back

[Essex snowman]

This winter I wish I was a hedgehog hibernate in November then reappear in April 

[Ravelin]

-6/7 uppers just can't deliver at this time of year, especially for coastal areas...

OK, sun's out now and it's probably all melted but the snow showers here this morning were probably the heaviest of the winter so far.

[mushymanrob]

its a beautiful day outdoors! the sun is strong and warm, here we have no breeze so its simply divine!

ok im going to pay tonight with a hard frost - but hey ho, ill be in bed!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

People saying it isn't going be a March 2013 in terms of cold etc? Why does it need to be a March 2013 type anyway? I can recall  March 1985, 1987, 1995, 2006.

Infact one of the snowiest March in the last 25 years was 1995 and that was overall average, temperature wise. That was for me one of the best Marches, 3 days of lying snow, nice sunshine, some frosts, some early spring warmth.

Yes I had a decent dumping in Birmingham, about 5 inches followed by a severe overnight frost, 87 was my biggest March dumping ever though, it was the weekend of the Zebrugge ferry disaster, 5th-6th March, It must of been upwards of 8 inches, possibly 10.

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes I had a decent dumping in Birmingham, about 5 inches followed by a severe overnight frost, 87 was my biggest March dumping ever though, it was the weekend of the Zebrugge ferry disaster, 5th-6th March, It must of been upwards of 8 inches, possibly 10.

thats odd.... friday the 6th was wet , but that was the only day lost to rain... here in derby anyway.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

thats odd.... friday the 6th was wet , but that was the only day lost to rain... here in derby anyway.

I was one day out, this was it. It started at midnight on the Friday night, it was still snowing at the time of this chart and went on to snow until about 8pm on the Saturday night although getting progressively lighter.

 

And we weren't a million miles away from getting another tonking as well!!!

Edited February 23, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[weather09]

Is indeed a pleasant day today. Plenty of sunshine. Also nice to see increasing land insolation being reflected in recent convective/instability outputs toward back end of recent GFS runs with the (required) aid of deep trough/cold air aloft sinking south over UK.  ECM would be showing the same.  Hope to see a bit more of this over coming weeks to bring about thunder, hail, and good cloudscape opportunities. 

 

[mushymanrob]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I was one day out, this was it. It started at midnight on the Friday night, it was still snowing at the time of this chart and went on to snow until about 8pm on the Saturday night although getting progressively lighter.

 

And we weren't a million miles away from getting another tonking as well!!!

fair play!... i hadnt recorded anything over the weekend, so i dont know what we got - but by monday i was working.