Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[ReindeerMarmalade]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

thatll be me then.... unless theres a real cold spell that WILL bring a dumping of snow. the rest is just hot air (sic). i cannot understand why one should get excited about something that isnt likely to happen. what makes it worse is the never ending moaning by those who were suckered in , believing fi charts, getting all excited like a child at christmas - then moaning when it goes pear shaped. i can see no point in putting yourself through that at all.

I'd be far more concerned by a swathe of people who love snow not getting excited if they see the possibility of it in the models. I don't want to be on a public forum with that level of sociopathy

The lovely thing about not living in North Korea is we're all allowed to like different things and express our opinions in different ways. Isn't it marvellous? 

[steveh19]

Once again I'm looking forward to my cold rain. Looking like we won't get much in the way of snow down here as usual :(. 

[KDME]

I am waiting for the downgardes and model thread despondency .... call me a mahoosive cynic but this is one lesson I have learnt from this winter season ... and the last .... 

[KDME]

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Here comes the colder air

 

Great timelapse, Love the TLC200 pro cam

[feb1991blizzard]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

thatll be me then.... unless theres a real cold spell that WILL bring a dumping of snow. the rest is just hot air (sic). i cannot understand why one should get excited about something that isnt likely to happen. what makes it worse is the never ending moaning by those who were suckered in , believing fi charts, getting all excited like a child at christmas - then moaning when it goes pear shaped. i can see no point in putting yourself through that at all.

To be fair Rob when I posted FI charts in January and early feb I did state that without the aid of the Stratosphere that any SUSTAINED blocking pattern was unlikely to verify but its still eye candy, like looking at a nice woman in the street with a sexy short skirt knowing full well shes out my league, but now I am most confident that some fun and games could be around the corner in March with the strat vortex getting ruined.

[mushymanrob]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair Rob when I posted FI charts in January and early feb I did state that without the aid of the Stratosphere that any SUSTAINED blocking pattern was unlikely to verify but its still eye candy,

i wasnt singling out you or any one, it was just a general statement. yep, thats fair, but thats not getting excited is it?

 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

17 hours ago, knocker said:

Looks like a cold January

 

[Fozfoster]

^^^

LOL

[Nick L]

Precious little in the way of snow in any model output at the moment, but I'm happy with sunny days and frosty nights! 

[Snowyowl9]

10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Precious little in the way of snow in any model output at the moment, but I'm happy with sunny days and frosty nights! 

This looks colder,rather these blue charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1267.html

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i wasnt singling out you or any one, it was just a general statement. yep, thats fair, but thats not getting excited is it?

 

well I can get excited sometimes but as you've probably seen I wont be calling a dumping from an Easterly with -7c uppers in late February!!

[Weather-history]

Not a bad day

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Precious little in the way of snow in any model output at the moment, but I'm happy with sunny days and frosty nights! 

me too nick, but sure rain will appear at some point, dry weather seems to downgrade

[Costa Del Fal]

Thought it has been glorious in the sun today. It's strength really starting to show now. Lots of fresh growth in the woods and the birds tweeting till late. Could have easily been April! 

[mushymanrob]

11 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Thought it has been glorious in the sun today. It's strength really starting to show now. Lots of fresh growth in the woods and the birds tweeting till late. Could have easily been April! 

yep, this is the reason i dislike late cold weather, not to 'spite' coldies, but because early spring is wonderful outdoors.

[Ravendane]

A cold spell on the way ... well,  it is still February and winter but still not a flake of snow forecast....well there was on the Netweather seven day forecast but that has gone now as usual.  Worst winter that I can remember...mud, mud and more blooming mud.....

[mushymanrob]

47 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

well I can get excited sometimes but as you've probably seen I wont be calling a dumping from an Easterly with -7c uppers in late February!!

yep, i reckon youre getting a rough ride on the md thread. people look at charts and automatically think 'snow showers' , but an easterly can be overcast and dry,. i dont know the dynamics required for heavy snow showers, but looking at an easterly or northeasterly and believing in snow showers are coming is naive.

take this chart from january 76, it looks as tastey as any of these current charts - but all we got was dry, overcast, bitterly cold weather - no snow.

 

[March]

Today was beautiful. Had a great walk, lots of snowdrops, singing birds, and could feel the sun! Light winds too. 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, i reckon youre getting a rough ride on the md thread. people look at charts and automatically think 'snow showers' , but an easterly can be overcast and dry,. i dont know the dynamics required for heavy snow showers, but looking at an easterly or northeasterly and believing in snow showers are coming is naive.

take this chart from january 76, it looks as tastey as any of these current charts - but all we got was dry, overcast, bitterly cold weather - no snow.

 

Mind you I bet the South West got some though, I always think that these type of setups are the best at this time of year.

 

You don't need really cold uppers with these, its a continual dumping rather than on off on off as with a sunshine and showers type E or NE flow so no melting and usually its massive flakes and stonking PPN rates so even with a warm ground it will settle.

[weather09]

Yes, common misconception appearing again where it's assumed cold temperatures at 850mb alone means an adequate environment for vigorous convection travelling off the North Sea.  However I think Captain Shortwave, Sub-Zero and John Holmes cleared this up, noting that the mid-level to 500mb profile is more relevant concerning instability- i.e. are we situated under a trough (with large scale ascent) and cold air aloft which serves to steepen the lapse rate through the mid-level?  

Indeed, it can be sub -10C at 850mb, and atop relatively mild waters, however if it's situated under weak geopotential heights/ridge with relatively minor cooling aloft and little ascent, convective activity is inhibited.  

Edited February 22, 2016 by weather09

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Yes, common misconception appearing again where it's assumed cold temperatures at 850mb alone means an adequate environment for vigorous convection travelling off the North Sea.  However I think Captain Shortwave, Sub-Zero and John Holmes cleared this up, noting that the mid-level to 500mb profile is more relevant concerning instability- i.e. are we situated under a trough (with large scale ascent) and cold air aloft, which serves to steepen the lapse rate through the mid-level.  

Indeed, it can be sub -10C at 850mb, and atop relatively mild waters, however if it's situated under weak geopotential heights/ridge with relatively minor cooling aloft, convective activity is inhibited.  

Yes and another misconception is that FAIRLY high surface pressure always kills convection, not if you have insanely low heights further up.

I'm sure there were heavy showers as far North as Yorkshire (nearly 1025mb) from this chart.

Edited February 22, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Day 10]

Well still not a flake to be had, cold and pretty dry for most looks the theme this week. Patience is extremely thin now with this shambles of a winter. Roll on Spring (or should that be a continuation of autumn).

In a word RUBBISH!

[weather09]

Yep, further highlighting the relevance of the mid-level/500mb profile when determining likelihood of showers/deep convection.  Chart there shows deep trough/good ascent, steepening mid-level lapse rates. Wouldn't say 1020-1025mb is particularly high, though indeed there can still be shower/storm activity with higher surface pressure, again provided there's good ascent aloft.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Yep, further highlighting the relevance of the mid-level/500mb profile when determining likelihood of showers/deep convection.  Chart there shows deep trough/good ascent, steepening mid-level lapse rates. Wouldn't say 1020-1025mb is particularly high, though indeed there can still be shower/storm activity with higher surface pressure, again provided there's good ascent aloft.

Don't know why I think this and tell me if I'm wrong but I'm sure when I was a kid I saw home grown severe thunderstorms generated under an intense area of very high pressure, haven't seen it to that extreme since, perhaps its more common at much lower lattitudes?

[knocker]