Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Interitus]

Particularly amusing how the frontal system is producing mainly snow on the other side of the channel, not much accumulation though. Click the 'Animation sur 24h' to see its progress -

http://meteociel.fr/index.php?region=&duree=6

Photos in the gallery - hover mouse over magnifying glass icon next to user name to see location - http://meteociel.fr/user/day-gallery.php?jour=18&mois=2&annee=2016&carte=0&sub=OK

Edited February 18, 2016 by Interitus

[snowtimenow]

Sod winter roll on Spring 

[coldcomfort]

4 hours ago, snowtimenow said:

Sod winter roll on Spring 

Couldn't agree more, other than adding the word dry before spring!

That said away from Scotland it's been pretty much autumn since Nov 1st, so a change to winter between Mar-May and then a Jun-Aug spring would not come as any major surprise....nor would any proper summer synoptics again getting shoved into the Sep-Oct period. 

 

Edited February 18, 2016 by Paul

[Man With Beard]

Don't usually post in here but this seems the best place to get it off my chest!

Basically, what on earth were the Met Office doing yesterday?? 

By the end of Tuesday, it was pretty clear that the models we can see were backing off from any significant snowfalls at all - GFS, Argepe, ECM, NMM, even the METs own EURO4. By yesterday morning, chances of any snow had virtually gone, except on the odd outlier (AROME), and on a few 0.1mm per hour measures (which often actually mean no precipitation at all). So I don't think it was a surprise to anyone following the forums here that there was ZERO snow in England last night (check twitter if you don't believe me - the #uksnow hashtag was a complete blank).

But one thing made me - and perhaps many of us - unsure. That was, the continually wording of the Met Office of "snow" in their forecasts. The continual placing of snow symbols on the website, all the way up to yesterday evening.

Now they are normally so cautious. For instance, last Monday, there was a small chance of heavy precipitation hitting the southeast which could have turned to snow - flagged up by a few models even 36 hours before. The Met didn't even mention it that time - and it didn't happen.

So why the difference this time? OK - they did point out the marginality of it for low levels - but they simply did not go far enough in doing so. If they had worded their warnings/forecasts differently yesterday, then papers such as the Daily Telegraph would not have been able to come up with this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12162400/UK-weather-Thursday-ice-and-snow-trigger-commuter-travel-warnings.html

Well here's my theory, and I've held it for sometime.

Quite simply, they don't like to change their forecasts. 

On Tuesday, it seemed quite appropriate to forecast snow. On Wednesday, it absolutely was not. 

But they held back. They were too cautious to move with the new information. They wanted to give it time. They wanted to see if the changes would be consolidated over a 24 hour period. But the trouble was, there was no 24 hour period to play with. It was a "now"-cast situation. 

And so, if my theory is right, their caution completely blew up in their face. 

To be absolutely blunt, if someone had phoned up the Met for a forecast for last night, and then phoned up a regular contributor to this forum, they would have got the correct information from the forum member (paid nothing) and not from the Met forecaster (paid lots and lots). And it would not have been a fluke on the amateur's part. 

This is utterly ridiculous.

And it's happening too much. Anyone remember February 2014, when the GFS upped wind speeds to 100mph for the Welsh coast a good 36 hours before, yet it took until 3 hours before the event (and after everyone had set off for work) for the Met to issue a red warning?? Just too slow to react.

I could mention a few others too.

For goodness sake, just change your wording! "We are expecting mostly rain, but there is a small chance of snow too" would have been absolutely fine, and not spinnable without lying.

We really do need to stop this "If the MET aren't on board then neither am I" idea on here. Considering the professional standards that their forecasting should be setting, there's something not quite right at the MET. Perhaps they just don't have the passion that some people in here have - maybe it's just a job to them - and maybe they take their eye off the ball from time to time as a result.

Right, rant over!

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well here's my theory, and I've held it for sometime.

Quite simply, they don't like to change their forecasts. 

 

Unfortunately, this does seem to be the case too often. I have sat here and defended the Met Office on numerous occasions, but not this time.

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Unfortunately, this does seem to be the case too often. I have sat here and defended the Met Office on numerous occasions, but not this time.

Nick what's even stranger is that Ian Ferguson was already onto the change in forecast by Tuesday night (Model Output thread)

Which means they already had the data. He must be secretly cheesed off. I think we'd see better Met Office forecasts if he was behind them.

[Nouska]

How much are the more recent considerations regarding risk assessment, hazard analysis and emergency responder protocols playing a part. It's not just the colour coding that is in a matrix - there's a whole cascading set of protocols that these warnings trigger. Difficult to envisage how 'nowcasting' can fit into that.

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, Nouska said:

How much are the more recent considerations regarding risk assessment, hazard analysis and emergency responder protocols playing a part. It's not just the colour coding that is in a matrix - there's a whole cascading set of protocols that these warnings trigger. Difficult to envisage how 'nowcasting' can fit into that.

That's why I mentioned these other situations where they didn't issue warnings when they should have done.

There's just no grounds for them saying "It was marginal so we had to take precautions" - people north of the Midlands at 1500ft were reporting all rain! It was a long way from being marginal!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very misleading meto yesterday, we all knew on here snow wasn't possible in the setup we had, but people I know wondering where last nights/todays snow was

[Weather-history]

Freezing fog this morning

 

[Snowyowl9]

More air frost are appearing now,the days get longer the cold gets stronger.

But otherwise.

This winter has been as boring or as been the equivalent of last summer.

[Interitus]

5 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

It was a long way from being marginal!

Was it? This was the scene at Offekerque a couple of miles from Calais and the coast (courtesy meteociel)

[Frank Trough]

27 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Was it? This was the scene at Offekerque a couple of miles from Calais and the coast (courtesy meteociel)

isn't Calais in France?

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Was it? This was the scene at Offekerque a couple of miles from Calais and the coast (courtesy meteociel)

Kent was about 100 miles from the Mets' warning zone, though!

Lack of sea track meant a different ball game for France, as usual!

[Summer Sun]

Don't show the Daily Express tonight's UKMO

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If I was the express I would go the other way, 'Floods to sweep Britain', Britain to be flooded out', Britain faces 6 weeks of storms, Britain to suffer mildest winter on record

[DAVID SNOW]

9 hours ago, Nouska said:

How much are the more recent considerations regarding risk assessment, hazard analysis and emergency responder protocols playing a part. It's not just the colour coding that is in a matrix - there's a whole cascading set of protocols that these warnings trigger. Difficult to envisage how 'nowcasting' can fit into that.

Health n safety gone mad again! You have to cover all bases, in the event that one person may decide to sue!

[Weather-history]

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

  455.5 2014

423.0 1915

420.9 1990

415.6 1995

388.3 1994

380.6 1869

374.3 1960

373.5 1916

363.0 1966

362.0 1937

~357  2016

Scotland

~628 2016
604.5 2014


Northern Ireland

452.2 1994
412.7 1995
~409  2016

[Nick F]

11 hours ago, Interitus said:

Was it? This was the scene at Offekerque a couple of miles from Calais and the coast (courtesy meteociel)

Much of northern France was covered in an airmass characterised by dew points below freezing before the precip arrived from the NW and as the wind there was S/SEly off a colder drier continent, snow was likely to fall  unlike the UK where the airmass being sourced ahead of the rain was maritime rather than continental.

[mushymanrob]

well who would have thunk it?, who could have predicted? who could have guessed that the most wintry weather of the season would become manifest as winter ends and spring begins.

why couldnt we get these below average/cold synoptic charts in december and decembers mildness now?

sometimes i hate the bloody weather.

Edited February 19, 2016 by mushymanrob

[Evening thunder]

Kind of expected it really due to El Nino, along with e.g. the fact that snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas, so they say.

I don't mind some cold snaps in March but it may still be annoying if it drags on into April without any decent spring warmth.

[MP-R]

21 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Kind of expected it really due to El Nino, along with e.g. the fact that snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas, so they say.

I don't mind some cold snaps in March but it may still be annoying if it drags on into April without any decent spring warmth.

At least Easter is in March this year, much like 2008. I have a friend from Spain visiting over that weekend so no doubt it will snow just to be extra harsh. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

The only thing I see in the next week or so,is cooler colder air at times nothing sustained honestly.the colder interludes being 6/7c as apposed to 3/4c I feel no need to get excited from what the models are showing us.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

Kind of expected it really due to El Nino, along with e.g. the fact that snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas, so they say.

I don't mind some cold snaps in March but it may still be annoying if it drags on into April without any decent spring warmth.

i wouldnt mind so much if my work didnt depend on normal weather (at least). ive earned £0 for 9 weeks and needs to be getting out soon (gardening/grass cutting).

i must admit though, that cold spell 3 years ago was rather nice, i like the snow in longer days, light levels etc make it seem more alpine then arctic.

[mountain shadow]

Agreed Lukesluckybunch.

Some decent synoptics on offer but pretty much no decent cold air too tap in to. Temperatures therefore slightly below average by day and frosts at night.