Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Peter H]

15 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

What's the betting we get a big change in the weather just in time for spring.

Nice cold april anyone?

Weather,get a grip for -----'s sake.

 

Last June was absolutely freezing before we went on holiday, due to the "colder Atlantic". August was pretty cool too for the same reason

Funny how the "colder Atlantic" influence has completely dissipated now we're into December, which is pretty typical.

Edited December 13, 2015 by Peter H

[snowblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Peter H said:

Last June was absolutely freezing before we went on holiday, due to the "colder Atlantic". August was pretty cool too for the same reason

Funny how the "colder Atlantic" influence has completely dissipated now we're into December, which is pretty typical.

Forget the El Nino infuence, I'm convinced that unusually cold pool of water that remains in the North Atlantic has an awful lot to answer for!

[syed2878]

Talking of a good snow fall at sea level here in this part of brum last good setteling snow was January 2013 and March 2013. As for this winter so far it's been totally crap rain rain and mor rain mor like autumn than winter. Looking at the mets 16-30 out look the colder Interludes they were talking about has now gon off their forecast. here's what it says.

:

Mild and unsettled conditions look set to dominate the weather for the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016. Bands of rain are expected to spread across the country with some heavy bursts in places, especially in the west and across the north. Strong winds are equally likely, with gales or severe gales at times.

Updated at: 1411 on Sun 13 Dec 2015. I do hope that changes soon.

[snowangel32]

00z is a shocker, unless you live in the highlands then it looks great lol, that Euro high limpet just won't let go it stays with us virtually all through the run I need a break from these models now hopefully in a week or so something will change, but every time FI shows anything remotely cold you can expect it to disappear as time draws near. I wish we could only see 5 days ahead so we wouldn't keep getting disappointed. FI should get a name change to mirage because its just an illusion lol.   

[northwestsnow]

these models are taking the left trowser legging it down now.

monotonous dirge, with no end in sight 

[Liam J]

I wonder if this is what model watching would've been like back in the 1997/98 El Nino? But even that had some cold spells with some snow in places at the start of the winter, bit like we've seen over recent days where some have seen frost and snow fall, can't think of many times when the whole of autumn and first 2 weeks of winter have only produced one air frost, how long will it be until the next one?! 

Edited December 14, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Weather-history]

12 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

 

9 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

I wonder if this is what model watching would've been like back in the 1997/98 El Nino? But even that had some cold spells with some snow in places at the start of the winter, bit like we've seen over recent days where some have seen frost and snow fall, can't think of many times when the whole of autumn and first 2 weeks of winter have only produced one air frost, how long will it be until the next one?! 

At this stage, excitement with this

 

[JOPRO]

Four words to describe the current outlook FILTHY,WET, MILD, S**T. Only plus point is by this time next week we will all have only a few days work left till Christmas, and will have got those foul V.Mild days on Wednesday and Thursday out the way. What a waste this set up is in Winter!

[northwestsnow]

I just read IDO's post in the model thread and i think i need a calculator to count  the amount of times he used the word mild. 

lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

Not often you get me posting unrealistic ridiculous charts, but GFS is on the sherry again!

Atlantic 252 should not post fantasy charts

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Not often you get me posting unrealistic ridiculous charts, but GFS is on the sherry again!

Atlantic 252 should not post fantasy charts

Perturbation 19 at the same timeframe has a ginormous Siberian high 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A few GEFS do develop a high in deep FI, some mild, some near us, still feel it's a wobble, just a feeling normality resumed on 12Z

[Liam J]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Not often you get me posting unrealistic ridiculous charts, but GFS is on the sherry again!

Atlantic 252 should not post fantasy charts

Northern hemisphere being consumed by a black hole! Angry vortex... 

[mushymanrob]

19 hours ago, knocker said:

Yes. The PJ is nipping around the bomb and the HP GOA down the  western side of the trough over the western States.

 

ah... thatll be why the mid-west is getting heavy blizzards. storm chaser reed timmer is posting a lot of footage on facebook showing heavy snows. my friend in idaho has had 37" in 4 days.

[MP-R]

43 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Not often you get me posting unrealistic ridiculous charts, but GFS is on the sherry again!

Atlantic 252 should not post fantasy charts

Perhaps a more likely route to something more seasonal than a northerly though. With that vortex hugging Greenland, it wouldn't be unusual for our cold to come from the east as has happened on many an occasion with such a stubborn vortex.

[Weather-history]

If it is any consolation for winter lovers, can you imagine if we advanced everything that has happened by a month? That is what happened in November 2015 occurred in December 2015 and we were currently halfway  through January?  There would be despair amongst winter lovers! 

I can't see either January nor February or maybe both being as mild as we are currently. Back to back exceptionally months followed by a third (January) or even a fourth (February)? 

I can't see it, even in an extended period of exceptional mildness or even coldness, there is always a cuckoo in the nest that pops up.

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

ah... thatll be why the mid-west is getting heavy blizzards. storm chaser reed timmer is posting a lot of footage on facebook showing heavy snows. my friend in idaho has had 37" in 4 days.

Yup that's the case mushy as can be seen here.

Edited December 14, 2015 by knocker

[Ravelin]

47 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Northern hemisphere being consumed by a black hole! Angry vortex... 

If or when that goes 'pop' someone somewhere is going to get a treat. However, following the theme of despair prevalent around here, it won't be us.

[mountain shadow]

Things are so bad even Frosty is posting mild /warm charts in the main model thread. 

 

 

[sundog]

Just now, Ravelin said:

If or when that goes 'pop' someone somewhere is going to get a treat. However, following the theme of despair prevalent around here, it won't be us.

 

Just now, Ravelin said:

If or when that goes 'pop' someone somewhere is going to get a treat. However, following the theme of despair prevalent around here, it won't be us.

Whats the bets that if that happens it will be north america  knowing our luck. Take winter 2006-07 for example,when the arctic air did flood south during the second half of that winter it was north america that got the goods if i recall. It was very much a winter of two halves over there,very mild first half,bitter second halve.

[Fozfoster]

I know its a bit of fun , but heres one for all you coldies....UK/180days.asp?MonthOf=2&zipcode=CV34&locationID=58654&lat=52.3&lon=-1.6&findtype=  Me

Edited December 14, 2015 by Fozfoster
link not working

[Lauren]

See this is why expecting nothing in Winter works out well. I'm not disappointed as I was expecting very little.

 

I'll get excited when I see strong consistent forecasts a few days before the expected event.

[Fozfoster]

Ok guys sorry link not working. but try Metcheck.com look at feb cold all the way ;-) 

[stodge]

Morning all

Oh dear, fourteen days into a ninety day winter and the wrist slitting is well under way. Never mind a mild and zonal December was well forecast and accepted by many as a likely consequence of an El Nino but we now have people writing off the whole of January as well which seems absurd.

I'm not going to "promise" cold this winter - we might go right through to March without a significant cold spell or weather change (seems unlikely) and if we do, well, there's always next winter. As for January and particularly February, El Nino winters habitually deliver later and February cold and snow can be every bit as severe as in December (indeed more so with the water temperatures lower).

I know the NW winter argues for warmth at the end of February but oddly enough I'm the opposite. I think February will be by some way the coldest of the three winter months and we could well have another cold early March (perhaps not quite as good as the memorable 2013 spell). 

Our mythology of "good winters" isn't three months of endless cold which never happens but is usually a 10-14 day spell of severe weather and there's plenty of time for that. For all the talk of "2010" who remembers January and February 2011 which were unremarkable so we take at most a month and (in the south) 14 days and turn it into a wonderful winter ?

For most on here snow is more important than cold but cold without snow is perfectly possible - a nice HP to the east or right over us at this time of year will deliver (via inversion) ice days but no snow so that's another possibility. I know people want snow at Christmas - fine, there are plenty of places (Idaho it seems for one) where, if you are that desperate, you can have your wish but in lowland England, it's much more likely not to happen.

As a final thought, my birthday is January 15th - meteorological midwinter. I've only known snow on my birthday once in 50+ years and far more years have had snow after it than before it so I won't even begin to look for winter charts until this time next month but I would be cautiously hopeful for something "cold" (whether with snow or not I don't know) between then and March 1st. I might be wrong and it could be mild all the way but there's enough evidence to support a colder spell in the second half of winter for me to offer the "coldies" some hope but it's going to be a long road getting from there to here (as someone once sung).

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

If it is any consolation for winter lovers, can you imagine if we advanced everything that has happened by a month? That is what happened in November 2015 occurred in December 2015 and we were currently halfway  through January?  There would be despair amongst winter lovers! 

I can't see either January nor February or maybe both being as mild as we are currently. Back to back exceptionally months followed by a third (January) or even a fourth (February)? 

I can't see it, even in an extended period of exceptional mildness or even coldness, there is always a cuckoo in the nest that pops up.

Well, IDO has just written winter off in the MOD thread - the long-range anomalies are showing the current set-up lingering right through until spring, apparently.