Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

Not that I place much truck in model rainfall forecasts but the ecm parallel is going for another 3 inches in the NW over the next 5 days. Something they could do without but not a complete surprise given the current pattern.

[Carl46Wrexham]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not that I place much truck in model rainfall forecasts but the ecm parallel is going for another 3 inches in the NW over the next 5 days. Something they could do without but not a complete surprise given the current pattern.

Those poor souls are going to bid this wretched month a hearty good riddance. 

[knocker]

Some interesting cyclogenesis. The depression is spawned down Alabama way at T120 and wings it's way NE deepening rapidly. Slap bang over old weather station India.

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by knocker

[Peter H]

5 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

I haven't seen any model showing or any reputable agency discussing anything but what has been on offer. None were able to forecast the extremity of temp anomaly for December but the synoptic pattern was spot on.

Simon Keeling and weatheronline were forecasting much colder weather on the run up to Christmas. The BBC also ran with this theme for a while, but none of it has materialised and as we've got closer to the time the mild weather has just continued and now looks as if it'll last for the rest of the month.

All the winter forecasts have predicted something cold in mid January, but judging by their December forecasts I'll not hold my breath.
 

Shaping up to be a real stinker of a winter and even worse than usual.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Model runs typically average, and I think realistic in FI, lower temps, more rain than we've had, and more westerly, I would rather keep these temps we've had over last 6 weeks, but looks like being crap at around 8C max

my January thoughts, westerlies completely dominating the whole month, contender for one of the wettest/stormiest of all time, and not a single flake of snow in the South, much cooler than Dec at 6.2C CET

[Gord]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Model runs typically average, and I think realistic in FI, lower temps, more rain than we've had, and more westerly, I would rather keep these temps we've had over last 6 weeks, but looks like being crap at around 8C max

my January thoughts, westerlies completely dominating the whole month, contender for one of the wettest/stormiest of all time, and not a single flake of snow in the South, much cooler than Dec at 6.2C CET

To say it may be a westerly month isn't too bold a forecast (although saying completely dominating is!) Saying not a single flake of snow in the south is much braver. Saying it'll be a contender for the wettest/stormiest of all time is a very very bold prediction though and would be interested for you to expand your thoughts on that one!

Edited December 21, 2015 by Gord

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Those poor souls are going to bid this wretched month a hearty good riddance. 

I think without question the key concern over the next few days is how much rain is the very active Atlantic going to dump in areas that have already had quite sufficient. I have to say it's not looking good. Whether it is going to snow over Xmas, which it isn't,  is totally irrelevant.

Edited December 21, 2015 by knocker

[Bristawl Si]

I know model watching (computer generated outputs) is a passion for many members but it's better for one's health and sanity to follow the Glosea output reports we sometimes get from Ian F and/or John Holmes's anomaly chart posts.

They seem to call the general weather patterns over the months of Winter correctly or as near to it as poss IMO.

 

[northwestsnow]

I think i can count on one hand the number of frosts we have seen in November and December.

That is shocking.

So fed up with it now, esp after last years 'winter'.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 frost, 23rd Nov, least we've had 1 cold spell and a bit of snow, not bad for the even larger teapot

[knocker]

The GEFS 6-10 anomaly is still maintaining the downstream amplification of the trough and ridge to the east with the general flow SW so continuing very unsettled conditions and frequents periods of wet and strong winds. Temps still above average but varying considerable as systems visit and move on.

In the ext period there is a lessening of the amplification and adjustments to the orientation of the major players. Still unsettled but less so and more confined to the north and again temps still a little above average but with usual caveat.

As i've mentioned earlier the key question is how rain will this very unsettled outlook dump on areas already badly effected.

Edited December 21, 2015 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I think you mean winter 2013-14? Last year wasn't bad for snow in our neck of the woods.

 

not bad in yours no, but the only decent snow I saw was boxing day! few smatterings late Jan, snowless Feb here though

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I think you mean winter 2013-14? Last year wasn't bad for snow in our neck of the woods.

can think of 1 or 2 snow days, i suspect mr datas manchester winter index would reveal all.

[Relativistic]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

not bad in yours no, but the only decent snow I saw was boxing day! few smatterings late Jan, snowless Feb here though

I didn't find last Winter too bad actually. In Birmingham, the canal past the university was frozen on and off for a few weeks in late January and early February, and there were plenty of days of falling snow (although always melting after a day or two). I know the canal is completely still but at least temperatures were consistently low enough for it to stay frozen. Not a stonker of a Winter, but definitely not the stinker that this Winter is shaping up to be.

[Nick L]

Looking increasingly likely that I'll go the entire month without seeing an air frost. That's dire.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Early Feb was the worst, not a flake of snow, even though I remember some model runs going for snow, but as usual downgraded

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Think it's only a matter of time before we get a nationwide cold spell, just based on the law of averages, the last time was March 2013.

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Think it's only a matter of time before we get a nationwide cold spell, just based on the law of averages, the last time was March 2013.

March 2013 was cold but dry in these parts. We didnt really join in the snow fun.

Last Winter (14/15) we were virtually snowless, bar one day of falling wet snow that lasted on and off for a few hours.

I know some people are saying the mild and wet cant last all Winter. Actually it could quite easily down here. In fact it wouldnt surprise me at all.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Bristle boy

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Looking increasingly likely that I'll go the entire month without seeing an air frost. That's dire.

Well, I criticised someone for saying this only yesterday, but I'm going to say it now - for anyone south of a line from north Wales across to the Humber (which includes me), I'm writing this winter off. 

Edited December 21, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

What a Xmas Day! looks like record breaking temps, bbq's out, shorts out looking at that chart, but strangely not expected to be that mild? 0nly 11C in the south,

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Well, I criticised someone for saying this only yesterday, but I'm going to say it now - for anyone south of a line from north Wales across to the Humber (which includes me), I'm writing this winter off.

just a hint of sarcasm in that post?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

just a hint of sarcasm in that post?

Not at all - I'm conceding that you were right.

[Fat Bloke]

Yep south of Watford Gap is dire, here we had 2 frosts and cannot seem to remember 1 snowflake this year.Still i bet we get the usual cold spring with sunshine.

[Frost HoIIow]

Last Winter was very marginal. One fall we missed on was in the middle of January purely for being only 40 metres or so too low. I got to about 130m and was in the snow line, climbed higher into Oldham town centre (220m asl) to be greeted by about a good 5 inches of snow, nothing at all here. The end of January was quite good though with 2 decent falls on back to back evenings here. Just the nature of the Polar Maritime air meant the snow was rather wet and it didn't last all that long the ground. Overall I'd say last Winter was average here, certainly no 2010 but certainly wasn't poor either.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Well, I criticised someone for saying this only yesterday, but I'm going to say it now - for anyone south of a line from north Wales across to the Humber (which includes me), I'm writing this winter off. 

 

you turned into me lol, the even larger teapot believer, but 'ang on a minute, My temp is 5.5C, chilly or wha'

Edited December 21, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252