Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Weather-history]

The Boxing Day record maximum is 16.0C set in 1983.

This current pattern producing these ridiculous anomalies is IMO unsustainable. It reminds me of a light bulb burning way above its wattage.

Its going to collapse around our ears, I fear. The light bulb is going to explode. May-July 2007 crash? April-June 2012 crash? I don't know but this spell is climatologically ridiculous.

[knocker]

WSI Europe: Warm/Wet/Windy Pattern to Continue Across Much of Europe

Quote

Between January and March 2016, WSI (Weather Services International) is forecasting widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe, with near or slightly below-normal temperatures confined to the UK and Scandinavia (especially in February and March). Wet and windy weather is expected to continue, especially from the western mainland northeastward, while drier and less windy conditions will persist across SE Europe.

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-warm-wet-windy-pattern-to-continue-across-much-of-europe

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

WSI Europe: Warm/Wet/Windy Pattern to Continue Across Much of Europe

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-warm-wet-windy-pattern-to-continue-across-much-of-europe

How reliable is this organisation?  Can't say I've heard of them. 

This forecast would seem to be zonal with Pm incursions into the UK. 

Could be a memorable Winter for the wrong reasons. 

[carinthian]

Another cloudless dawn arrives. Sunny mild days and frosty clear nights. Week in , week out and looking at the chart more of the same to come. Fronts just dissolve away into Euro High. Constant mildness, cloud, wind and rain for you lot and drought for us. Only 700 miles as the crow flies but might as be a million miles away with the different climate. The only common factor being no snow for all. I feel lucky to be away from that cess pit steam of a so called UK winter. I feel miserable with what we have now in the cockpit of Euroland but for cold lovers in Blighty it must be a foul gut wrenching experience at the moment. Hope things get better and there is always the pub to seek refuge. They are all moaning like fury over here. We want snow and plenty of it !

auf Wiedersehen

[knocker]

I don't know how reliable but Michael Ventrice works for them

http://www.wsi.com/industry/energy

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

This is rubbish. What we're getting now is nothing more than a variation of what has always been possible in the UK climate and we've had similar in the past. Ok the last major cold spell in southern Britain (and northern Britain for that matter) was in 2013, but in the grand scheme of things that wasn't long ago at all . We've had just as long and even longer periods between freezes in the past. Just look at the Winters of the mid 70s or the late 80s and the late 90s to mid 00s. Or indeed most of the early 20th century up until the 40s and you will find there were many periods that had mild dominated Winters. I don't know if we'll get a cold spell affecting southern lowland Britain this Winter (though my hopes rest with late January and February based on what more knowledgeable posters are perhaps thinking) but it will happen at some point undoubtedly.

I clearly recall the winters of the late '90s-early 2000s period, and I can assure you there were few if any that were as "un-wintery" as the last two were and this one is proving in my area.  I can't stress the last point enough - yes, I'm sure there were places that saw no snow for 5 years between 1998 and 2003, and equallyy there were places that saw well over a foot of snow last year, but I'm commnting on East Anglia (where I live) and most of the south-east and southern England.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

 

I never understand why people go on about the problems caused by severe weather in what seems like an attempt to drop a guilt bomb on people who like such weather. Yes, Atlantic storms have their associated problems like flooding and wind damage... but so does every other type of severe weather. Eg:

Wind and rain: flooding and wind damage.

Cold and snow: hypothermia and agricultural damage.

Thunderstorms: flash flooding and fire by lightning.

Heat waves: heat stroke and drought.

Taking all of those problems for example, should that mean that we should all only like bland, average weather? Of course not, but that's what your argument suggests.

 

Thanks for articulating this point of view, Scott.  I know you prefer milder weather, but I think we agree on this point.  We're supposed to be weather enthusiasts on here, yet it seems that some want us to only discuss and appreciate the blandest possible conditions lest we like something that may have inconvenienced someone.  I'm actually one of those who is being worried-about if the prospect of seasonable weather does appear, as I'm a wheelchair user, yet I'm a moderate coldie.  

As a motorsport enthusiast, it would be as though people on motorsport forums were made to feel guilty for enjoying and discussing eventful races because boring processions are marginally safer.  Trust me, one of the main British-based forums (which has many overseas posters) was full of moans this season after dull races!

[Steve C]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

In a warming world perhaps Iran will become an attractive option for the skiing fraternity.

With pistes higher than most European resorts, and lift passes much cheaper, Iran is a bit of a downhill paradise. Its north-facing slopes and high altitudes ensure crisp powder between December and May. After the country’s nuclear deal with the West, not to mention the first heavy snowfall in mid-November, Iranian ministers hope to attract fat-walleted tourists to the white peaks outside the smoggy capital.

The resort of Dizin, the pick of the bunch, boasts lifts that soar to almost 3,600 metres (12,000 feet). A day-pass costs a mere $20. The slopes are agreeably deserted, except on Persian weekends (Thursday and Friday). Where better for adventurous snowboarders to get snow in their beards? 

I've not looked into it, but I suspect the apres-ski (almost as important to me as the skiing) would be a large pile of poo there. If it is like my preconception there's no way I would go. 

Edited December 22, 2015 by Steve C

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

How reliable is this organisation?  Can't say I've heard of them. 

This forecast would seem to be zonal with Pm incursions into the UK. 

Could be a memorable Winter for the wrong reasons. 

To think yesterday I was slammed for writing-off winter in my area; this lot are writing it off for most of the Continent!

[Nick L]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The Boxing Day record maximum is 16.0C set in 1983.

This current pattern producing these ridiculous anomalies is IMO unsustainable. It reminds me of a light bulb burning way above its wattage.

Its going to collapse around our ears, I fear. The light bulb is going to explode. May-July 2007 crash? April-June 2012 crash? I don't know but this spell is climatologically ridiculous.

If this does mean we have a cool summer than so be it, a nice silver lining.

[Carl46Wrexham]

16 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Thanks for articulating this point of view, Scott.  I know you prefer milder weather, but I think we agree on this point.  We're supposed to be weather enthusiasts on here, yet it seems that some want us to only discuss and appreciate the blandest possible conditions lest we like something that may have inconvenienced someone.  I'm actually one of those who is being worried-about if the prospect of seasonable weather does appear, as I'm a wheelchair user, yet I'm a moderate coldie.  

As a motorsport enthusiast, it would be as though people on motorsport forums were made to feel guilty for enjoying and discussing eventful races because boring processions are marginally safer.  Trust me, one of the main British-based forums (which has many overseas posters) was full of moans this season after dull races!

Every weather type can cause disruption - agreed. However cold snowy weather doesn't make people's homes uninhabitable for months on end like in say Cumbria this year...and Somerset two years ago.

[Steve C]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

If this does mean we have a cool summer than so be it, a nice silver lining.

A cool and (more importantly) cloudy summer... No chance I'd enjoy that. Mild winters and cool summers. Everything evened out. Dreadful stuff for me!

[Nick L]

Just now, Steve C said:

A cool and (more importantly) cloudy summer... No chance I'd enjoy that. Mild winters and cool summers. Everything evened out. Dreadful stuff for me!

At this stage I'm purely looking at work-related silver linings, as the weather is so crap. This weather is a joy to forecast for, and a cool summer would make night shift sleeping far easier.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

If this does mean we have a cool summer than so be it, a nice silver lining.

If you ask me, this big nino is more likely to produce a cold spring.

[Steve C]

2 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Every weather type can cause disruption - agreed. However cold snowy weather doesn't make people's homes uninhabitable for months on end like in say Cumbria this year...and Somerset two years ago.

But it'll silently kill an awful lot more... Just playing Devil's advocate.

[Evening thunder]

Just personal preferences of course, but I can't think of anything worse than a cool summer following a ridiculously mild winter, removing almost any trace of defined seasons and annual temperature range that we had.

12 minutes ago, Steve C said:

But it'll silently kill an awful lot more... Just playing Devil's advocate.

Yep, hopefully no one that tries to make me feel bad for liking extreme weather/Atlantic storms etc, likes cold and snow (though I like cold and snow too, and even I don't want things such as what Cumbria had or Somerset had 2 years ago). 

Could it actually be sunny weather that kills the most through skin cancer? Maybe we should wish for cloud and rain, and what I said above that I'd hate.. just playing even more Devil's advocate.

Edited December 22, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Steve C]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

At this stage I'm purely looking at work-related silver linings, as the weather is so crap. This weather is a joy to forecast for, and a cool summer would make night shift sleeping far easier.

I'm supposed to be going skiing in the Alps in late January, so really want this pattern to break. I and others in the party suggested delaying till early March. However my Sister in Law has put severe restrictions on my Brother's time, so we've had to put up with it. She, however, can always do as she likes...

Other people in  the party feel the weather is bound to change in the next 4 1/2 weeks, but they know eff all about the persistence of Euro highs. I reckon it's about a 50/50 chance at this juncture of having a skiing, or mostly boozing holiday.

Edited December 22, 2015 by Steve C

[huntso]

Off to Innsbruck for the New Year, only sightseeing and hoping to catch a bit of the four hills ski jumping.

Would have liked some snow, but sunny days won't be too grim after the cack fest here and it will cut down on the clobber we need to take.

[Froze were the Days]

11 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

This is rubbish. What we're getting now is nothing more than a variation of what has always been possible in the UK climate and we've had similar in the past. Ok the last major cold spell in southern Britain (and northern Britain for that matter) was in 2013, but in the grand scheme of things that wasn't long ago at all . We've had just as long and even longer periods between freezes in the past. Just look at the Winters of the mid 70s or the late 80s and the late 90s to mid 00s. Or indeed most of the early 20th century up until the 40s and you will find there were many periods that had mild dominated Winters. I don't know if we'll get a cold spell affecting southern lowland Britain this Winter (though my hopes rest with late January and February based on what more knowledgeable posters are perhaps thinking) but it will happen at some point undoubtedly.

I haven't experience a winter like 2013/14 with endless rain and low after low developing across the atlantic like that one (the only one in my lifetime similar I can remember was Jan/Feb 1990 - a very unsettled windy period with numerous severe gales) - this winter so far has no resemblance to ANY winter I can recall (and I've been recording winter weather since 1983 and can remember ones previous to my records) talk about a pattern repeating itself with minor variations - forget about late 80's late 90's and early 2000's - this one writes a new chapter, at least we had the odd frost in those mild winter periods! 

Edited December 22, 2015 by Froze were the Days

[reef]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I haven't experience a winter like 2013/14 with endless rain and low after low developing across the atlantic like that one (the only one in my lifetime similar I can remember was Jan/Feb 1990 - a very unsettled windy period with numerous severe gales) - this winter so far has no resemblance to ANY winter I can recall (and I've been recording winter weather since 1983 and can remember ones previous to my records) talk about a pattern repeating itself with minor variations - forget about late 80's late 90's and early 2000's - this one writes a new chapter, at least we had the odd frost in those mild winter periods! 

The last two winters and this one so far have been pretty unique here too. At least in the 90s/00s you could pretty much guarantee there would be the odd toppler or out of season cold snap which brought a few cm of snow. What's remarkable about the last few years is we've had none of that. January 2013 still remains the last time we had measurable snow even this far north. 2013/14 was the first time the extended season had no falling sleet or snow, so the pattern certainly was repetitive!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

More evidence that we might as well write this winter off:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3305850

[Hocus Pocus]

9 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

More evidence that we might as well write this winter off:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3305850

One only has to look at the relentless charts churned out by either model then couple that with the MetO latest musings ( which takes us to the 20th Jan ) then we can discount the first two thirds of January also. I think if we are to see any prolonged cold it will be by mid February if at all this winter, this PV just looks far too strong and heights over Europe are persistent with no end in sight. 

[carinthian]

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

Another cloudless dawn arrives. Sunny mild days and frosty clear nights. Week in , week out and looking at the chart more of the same to come. Fronts just dissolve away into Euro High. Constant mildness, cloud, wind and rain for you lot and drought for us. Only 700 miles as the crow flies but might as be a million miles away with the different climate. The only common factor being no snow for all. I feel lucky to be away from that cess pit steam of a so called UK winter. I feel miserable with what we have now in the cockpit of Euroland but for cold lovers in Blighty it must be a foul gut wrenching experience at the moment. Hope things get better and there is always the pub to seek refuge. They are all moaning like fury over here. We want snow and plenty of it !

auf Wiedersehen

Following on from this morning, some real melt today as 10C (850mb height temp ) reached the area today.Temps were only 5c at 1000m but were considerably higher reaching a max of 10c AT 1700m asl.

Still 6c in village at 6pm and 7c on the berg summit at 2000m. Pub time now for a right moan and drown our sorrows. The no snow winter is moving on relentlessly at a pace .

C

[Bristawl Si]

It's turning into a right old 70s Winter down these parts.

Mild mild mild and wet wet wet.

One can only hope for a 78/79 turnaround. No hope! There's more chance of Bob Hope turning up!

[Liam J]

Crikey, we really are in trouble if the GEM is being ramped up showing the best charts!! It was near perfect synoptically though if it's cold your after... 

Edited December 22, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*