Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[The PIT]

ECM cranks up the Atlantic again GFS does play around with high pressure to our northeast rather east or south east.  I'll go with the ECM mainly due to how euro highs stick around and easily get replaced..

[knocker]

A very meridional flow to the ecm T240 anomaly this morning with the trough digging way south and the European HP ridging from France NE through Estonia and points north. So not looking too clever after what may be a brief post Xmas interlude. Looking further ahead to T360 the ridge slowly does a runner and is gone by the end with the trough edging east but with less amplitude. Ergo back into zonal westerlies with maybe a N/S split with temps varying around average.

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

13 hours ago, Dreamnine said:

Nothing remotely cold showing in the models, makes me happy. Lower power bills, fewer accidents for pensioners etc.

 

Would like the entire Winter to be frost-free.

You'd like more wretched gloomy wet and windy weather then? Not sure the residents of Cumbria whose Christmas and New Year  has been wrecked by their homes being flooded would agree with you...or people in North West Wales...or Dumfries and Galloway...or anyone who suffers from SAD.

Lower power bills? You having a laugh? Having to switch the lights on around 2pm because it's so dark and grotty outside hardly helps on that score!

but hey...long as you like it eh?

Edited December 21, 2015 by Carl46Wrexham

[Liam J]

Not sure but is the GFS about to do a backtrack towards the ECM? 

Edited December 21, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Not sure but is the GFS about to do a backtrack towards the ECM? 

Looking like it.  Back to very mild for majority of the run so far but it does demonstrate that looking at charts ten days ahead and taking them as fact is folly. The large amount of scatter on the assemblies suggests FI really begins at 27th

[booferking]

And so it begins. 

[Relativistic]

14 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

to a degree over the past 15-20 years this is true (as per a post I made a week ago which somebody repled back about 85/86) - 2011-12 had a cold spell in the south east in the first 10 days or so of February after a relatively mild Dec/Jan 2011 but then became very mild thereafter. I can't recall too many winters that have started mild/very mild and finished cold over the last decade or so.

That cold spell in 2012 was actually one of my favourites. Last five days of January and the first ten days or so of February were very cold. Had a few ice days in Essex, and for a couple of nights in a row we had temperatures down to -10C. Lying snow stuck around for over a week, and the ground was frozen for ages. I remember the air being really dry, so even when temperatures were well below zero there was only a hint of frost. Those easterlies were very bitter. Quite an interesting spell. The CET was subzero for half of that month!

Overall, very enjoyable. Thank you Siberian High!

[knocker]

The view from the woodshed Xmas week

Chart weatherbell

 

[Nick L]

Even if we get an easterly, eastern Europe is hardly a freezer at the moment.

[Carl46Wrexham]

24 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Relax folks - GFS 6z gives us a 1-day toppler out at day 15!  That might give me a frost (possibly!)!!

Back to reality - the signs for any cold snowy weather are almost nil for the majority of lowland Britain.  It's a case of 'jam tomorrow' from some of the long range experts on here.

I would stick to the MO outlook - same old, becoming drier in the South (probably the persistent Euro high pushing a little bit north).

 

After the non winter of 2013/14 with its abundance of Jam Tomorrow charts (10 days away) which never came closer than 10 days away while we suffered relentless wind and rain, my faith in this (so far) non winter's version of Jam Tomorrow charts is not strong. In just 3 and a bit weeks, the meteorological winter will be half way gone. The clock starts ticking once we hit New Year.

[Polar Maritime]

25 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Even if we get an easterly, eastern Europe is hardly a freezer at the moment.

Exactly Nick, At the moment we would draw colder air from the N/W.

[knocker]

All westbound trains are cancelled to make way for the eastbound express. That Euro high has much to answer for

[phil nw.]

12 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Exactly Nick, At the moment we would draw colder air from the N/W.

We probably have much more chance of that than an easterly currently.

[Peter H]

As usual, what looked interesting last night has disappeared this morning.

I think we're going to have to face up to the fact that all the "winter" forecasts are pretty much badly wrong this year.

Certainly, December has not turned out anything like what was predicted.

[stainesbloke]

It's very mild here but NE USA going to have a record-breaking warm Christmas....New York expecting 21C on Christmas Eve! Silly temps for there.

[Peter H]

56 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

After the non winter of 2013/14 with its abundance of Jam Tomorrow charts (10 days away) which never came closer than 10 days away while we suffered relentless wind and rain, my faith in this (so far) non winter's version of Jam Tomorrow charts is not strong. In just 3 and a bit weeks, the meteorological winter will be half way gone. The clock starts ticking once we hit New Year.

Exactly Carl.

Accu extended weather forecasts go right up until the end January now and there's nothing remotely cold on the horizon.

Once you get past about mid February you can basically forget about it as the sun's far too strong at that stage.

February really is an early spring month now, in my opinion.

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, Peter H said:

As usual, what looked interesting last night has disappeared this morning.

I think we're going to have to face up to the fact that all the "winter" forecasts are pretty much badly wrong this year.

Certainly, December has not turned out anything like what was predicted.

I haven't seen any model showing or any reputable agency discussing anything but what has been on offer. None were able to forecast the extremity of temp anomaly for December but the synoptic pattern was spot on.

[knocker]

Looking forward to a break down on the beach Xmas Day

[Relativistic]

People are always seeing "trends" in the models but it's *ALWAYS* in FI. Nothing on the horizon at the moment. When something comes within five days I'll believe it, otherwise, I'll just keep telling myself that this Winter is a horror show and will continue to be for a long time. Keep your expectations low. No disappointment that way.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

I haven't seen any model showing or any reputable agency discussing anything but what has been on offer. None were able to forecast the extremity of temp anomaly for December but the synoptic pattern was spot on.

One thing that completely fooled me was the cool Atlantic; it was meant to ameliorate the mildness.

[Gael_Force]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

One thing that completely fooled me was the cool Atlantic; it was meant to ameliorate the mildness.

I'm not sure how that works in winter as the ocean and air temps are pretty similar and definitely no cold seas away down to our SSW.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperature-de-la-mer.php?region=sp

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

Just picked another tomatoe M greenhouse, a nice cucumber next... Garden furniture airborn as winds are ridiculous and  lawn needs cutting!! What I keep reading now is "building blocks" which is reminiscent of last year. Models chucking in some lovely charts in F1 but they don't seem to be showing in a more reliable time frame.  I am holding onto this winter being in 2 halves as predicted by someone back in November ( think it was two weather). Something needs to change by mid Jan or as the days get longer we may run out I time.  

Daffodils

[igloo]

the snowdrops and tulips are starting to bud in poland and belarus i have being informed from a freind of mine quite bizzare really at this time of year in eastern europe so its not just in the uk thats is very mild looking closer at hand christmas and new year looks like its going to be the stormiest spell so far with some monster of lows crossing over 950mb lows or even lower by the time new year RELENTLESS stuff

  

Edited December 21, 2015 by igloo

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Well the GFS Parallel is predicting blizzards for the south associated with a very deep low and intense snowfall rates at 364h. 

The well known reputable tabloid is on the case, Cobra meeting to be called

Edited December 21, 2015 by karlos1983

[Chris K]

3 hours ago, Peter H said:

As usual, what looked interesting last night has disappeared this morning.

I think we're going to have to face up to the fact that all the "winter" forecasts are pretty much badly wrong this year.

Certainly, December has not turned out anything like what was predicted.

Ey? I thought the main signals back in November were modelling a predominantly mild and unsettled December?