Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[E100]

From what I have read many strong el nino started mild and gave a cold early spring. I think models are indicating mild january and february and it seems likely. For March and April its a shot in the dark, but odds are much better than write off Jan and Feb.

 

But unless April I something exceptional. The game end for winter in March for me anyway and winters last chance to play her cards. Otherwise welcome spring and hope for a hot summer.

Edited December 20, 2015 by E100

[78/79]

Hardly worthy of it's name really, the mind numbing mediocrity is really starting to grate on  me now. All too often you get a non event Winter  followed by a  crap Spring, followed by a dire Summer,this country really hasn't got a lot going for it weather wise to be honest .

[E100]

20 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Hardly worthy of it's name really, the mind numbing mediocrity is really starting to grate on  me now. All too often you get a non event Winter  followed by a  crap Spring, followed by a dire Summer,this country really hasn't got a lot going for it weather wise to be honest .

I feel the same. Only positive note is that we can dream of snow and blizzards and african summers and eventually we win the weather lottery. If we got +40c every summer and -40c winter every year. Would get boring winning lottery every time.

 

Edited December 20, 2015 by E100

[tinybill]

with  this  daft weather to-day  i was forced   to get the lawn  mower  out in December   first  time  in years  the  lawn was looking  like a  bit of set  er  side, then the heavens open up this afternoon!!!

[E100]

10 minutes ago, tinybill said:

with  this  daft weather to-day  i was forced   to get the lawn  mower  out in December   first  time  in years  the  lawn was looking  like a  bit of set  er  side, then the heavens open up this afternoon!!!

In this weather. Quickest way to cut the grass is to set fire to it. It will grow back in a couple of months anyway

Edited December 20, 2015 by E100

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my guess is for GFS 00Z to look as zonal as hell tomorrow, no silly 384 chart with Jan '87 setup arriving 2-3 days later, I go for more of a 2013/2014 setup

[Don]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

2009 saw a mild December and it got colder later.  If we really knew what the weather was going to be like 2 - 2 1/2 months hence, the model thread would be redundant.

December 2009 started on a mild note but turned much colder by mid month with significant snow on the 17th and 18th in the South East and I think a fair few places had snow on the ground at Christmas, although it had turned less cold in the south by then.  The month was cold overall with a CET of 3.1C.

[Dreamnine]

Nothing remotely cold showing in the models, makes me happy. Lower power bills, fewer accidents for pensioners etc.

 

Would like the entire Winter to be frost-free.

[knocker]

Well it may get a little cooler in the New Year looking at the ecm ext. With the HP to the east moving away to the east and a suggestion of HP even pushing up from the S/SW the flow veers more zonal but bringing, for a time anyway, more settled weather at least to south and maybe even some night frosts.

Edited December 20, 2015 by knocker

[Liam J]

I think the GFS will look different by tomorrow morning as that was quite a wild switch around from previous output, but of course it *could* be picking out a new trend but I'm not convinced at a complete turn around happening over one run. GFS went one way and the ECM went the opposite way to become poles apart, I know where I'd put my money each and every time! And yes I'd be prepared to lose it if I was wrong... 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, Dreamnine said:

Nothing remotely cold showing in the models, makes me happy. Lower power bills, fewer accidents for pensioners etc.

 

Would like the entire Winter to be frost-free.

 

You'll get your wish then

[E100]

13 minutes ago, Dreamnine said:

Nothing remotely cold showing in the models, makes me happy. Lower power bills, fewer accidents for pensioners etc.

 

Would like the entire Winter to be frost-free.

Lower accidents? I think Cumbria would disagree and would have liked a seasonal white christmas

[Frost HoIIow]

48 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Hardly worthy of it's name really, the mind numbing mediocrity is really starting to grate on  me now. All too often you get a non event Winter  followed by a  crap Spring, followed by a dire Summer,this country really hasn't got a lot going for it weather wise to be honest .

Indeed. For as long as I can remember our climate has never been famed for cold Winters or hot Summers. Just the rain, even the Romans complained about it when they were here. You can get the odd exception to the mild Winters and cool Summers but for the most part they are few and far between. I guess when we get a long cold Winter or long hot Summer they are special because they are rare!

[E100]

29 minutes ago, Dreamnine said:

Nothing remotely cold showing in the models, makes me happy. Lower power bills, fewer accidents for pensioners etc.

 

Would like the entire Winter to be frost-free.

Wait till ides of march

For power bills. In this weather when I put woodburner on it reaches 40c after two hours.

As for pensioners having accidents. One of my granfathers was a ww2 vet and won a swimming competition against men in their twenties in his 80's.

Edited December 20, 2015 by E100

[Liam J]

11 minutes ago, Medlock Vale said:

I guess when we get a long cold Winter or long hot Summer they are special because they are rare!

Indeed, and unfortunately seem to be getting ever rarer as the years pass by... 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, Medlock Vale said:

Indeed. For as long as I can remember our climate has never been famed for cold Winters or hot Summers. Just the rain, even the Romans complained about it when they were here. You can get the odd exception to the mild Winters and cool Summers but for the most part they are few and far between. I guess when we get a long cold Winter or long hot Summer they are special because they are rare!

They weren't when I was little!

[78/79]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

They weren't when I was little!

Those of us who are a little older, are fortunate enough to have lived through 62/63 ( although I was quite young)  Summer 76 ,Winter 78/79, plus the 80s winters.You can understand the youngsters frustration on here. 

[Frost HoIIow]

29 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

They weren't when I was little!

Special weather events stick in the memory more. Most people have selective memory. If you can give examples of cold Winters and hot Summers since you have been alive then go ahead but I'm certain the mild Winters and cool Summers outnumber them. As far as I know our climate is not continental in which cold Winters and hot Summers dominate. Ours is maritime climate unfortunately.

Edited December 20, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[E100]

51 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

They weren't when I was little!

I only remember one proper winter when little. Dont remember the year. But was in southeast and I would? 

Sadly I agree. Thats why one day I plan to have a log cabin in maybe near vostok for winter and a villa in perhaps Ghana for summer. 

[Summer of 95]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

to a degree over the past 15-20 years this is true (as per a post I made a week ago which somebody repled back about 85/86) - 2011-12 had a cold spell in the south east in the first 10 days or so of February after a relatively mild Dec/Jan 2011 but then became very mild thereafter. I can't recall too many winters that have started mild/very mild and finished cold over the last decade or so.

Usually I wouldn't  say winters over so early (you can never write off a cold spell/snap through Jan/Feb) but this winter is writing a new episode of the likes I've never experienced and I've been detailing winter records since the early 80's.

You could make a case for 2005/6? OK it had a rather half-hearted attempt at a cold snap after Christmas, and I wouldn't call it "very mild", but it was late Feb and especially March when all the snow and lowest temps.

2004/5 synoptically had all the ingredients, but I wouldn't count it because the brief NW'ly at Christmas was far more wintry than the fortnight of easterlies in Feb/March. 

Also 2000/1, that did start very mild and end cold, but there were a couple of cold snaps in late Dec and Jan.

[knocker]

Looks like roast chestnuts

[E100]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looks like roast chestnuts

Beware ides of march

[Peter H]

3 hours ago, 78/79 said:

Those of us who are a little older, are fortunate enough to have lived through 62/63 ( although I was quite young)  Summer 76 ,Winter 78/79, plus the 80s winters.You can understand the youngsters frustration on here. 

Yes, people keep talking about summer 1976, but for Northern Ireland summer 1975 was much better. Also, summer 1995 was quite exceptional and we had quite a good wither that year (1995/96), even a white Christmas (snow fell on Christmas day here.

1978/79 was great, and a mere four years after the exceptionally mild 1974/75.

Another cold winter was 1968/69. There was a snow event just before Christmas that year, but January was exceptionally cold and snowy.

They reckon the cold winters in the early 80's were all due to the Mt St. Helen's eruption, or so they say. Interestingly December 2010 followed the Icelandic volcano affair so that could make sense. The winter of 1981/82 stands out as the best one of the 1980's.

Some interesting charts at the end of the model runs with really cold air digging in over Scandinavia. Simon Keeling did hint at "something afoot" in the new year, so you never know, and the winter of 1947 didn't start until the last week in January (my dad tells me about that one).

Still, I'm not really optimistic that anything will change from what we have now.

 

[knocker]

Nothing noteworthy from the gfs this morning. Perhaps a quiet period briefly post Xmas with maybe some overnight frost even down south, surely not, and then hello jet. The upper high is somewhat SE of the surface HP which is centred over Finland.

Perhaps it should be noted that the GEFS has the Euro HP that starts off ridging into Scandinavia moves progressively east and weakens during the run with the flow veering to zonality over the UK

Edited December 21, 2015 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

This Winter so far is going according to plan for the majority of seasonal forecasts I have seen from the Pros.  So patience is required as we wait and see if the colder end occurs.

The longer range of the everyday model products may start to pick up a colder signal soon but I think any showing cold arriving before 10th January will be to quick.